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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

UnionHockeyManiac said:
Priceless, if Union doesn't make it to AC, can we still make the tournament?

And are we pretty much guaranteed to make the tournament if we win one TUC game in AC?

Thanks in advance.
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2 losses to RPI would crater your RPI and flip about 5 comparisons. That would drop you to ~13th and place you squarely on the bubble.
Because the ECAC has a third-place game, if you went to AC and didn't win a game, that would mean you went 0-2 against TUC. Union doesn't have a lot of margin when it comes to TUC (but that changes if UNH drops out and RIT keeps winning). Even winning the consolation game would probably be a TUC win.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

2 things:
1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
2 things:
1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
Click to expand...
You suck! :p
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
2 things:
1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
Click to expand...

Priceless, As you know, i appreciate the work. The most fun I have all year is trying to work out the various possibilities, this week. Next week is less so, because everyone the YATC thing, and it takes the experimentation out of it - you know, "Well, llet's see, does it make a difference if it is a sweep or a 3 game series...."

Are you going to keep working the possibilities as the wkend wears on? For example, what happens to Lowell's chances if Pv wins tonight...

Thanks again.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

JimDahl said:
You're not the first... some of my colleagues swear by R for datavis. As you alluded to, the data prep is the missing piece. There's nothing hard about it, the crux of my problem is that I only think about this stuff for about 2 months a year, and then have to devote the available time to creating the product (80% of which is data transformation). I just need to devote some time in the off-season to automating that, which is a definite goal.
Click to expand...

well, the thing is it sounds like you've already made a good distance on the headway.

As for data vis... I'm not sold on R per se but its a lot more flexible than SAS (I'm a statistician) when manipulating the heck out of stuff. SAS is still better with data but you can do some real contorting in R.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Priceless, As you know, i appreciate the work. The most fun I have all year is trying to work out the various possibilities, this week. Next week is less so, because everyone the YATC thing, and it takes the experimentation out of it - you know, "Well, llet's see, does it make a difference if it is a sweep or a 3 game series...."

Are you going to keep working the possibilities as the wkend wears on? For example, what happens to Lowell's chances if Pv wins tonight...

Thanks again.
Click to expand...

Of course! The fun really happens when the road teams start winning games and weird COp combinations flip comparisons after we've spent all this time talking about RPI and TUC.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Onion Man said:
Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
Click to expand...

If Union can be in the conversation the last three years, then Brown certainly can be too eventually. As the great Tug McGraw used to say, "Ya Gotta Believe!"
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Onion Man said:
Someday Brown will be mentioned in this thread. Probably not, but dare to dream...
Click to expand...

I mentioned them just last night!

Priceless said:
Eliminated from consideration:
Independent - Alabama-Huntsville
AHA - Canisius, Army, AIC, Sacred Heart
ECAC - Clarkson, Brown, St Lawrence, Princeton
CCHA - Alaska, Ohio State
Hockey East - Vermont, Northeastern
Click to expand...
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St	Boston C	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Lowell
Denver		Maine		Miami		Mich State
Merrimack	Cornell		AHA Champ	No Dakota
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
2 things:
1) You can't send me anonymous neg rep because I pay for Extra and can see who sent it.
2) If you want to send me neg rep and call me names that's fine, but I fully expect you to post your work in this thread for everyone to judge.

Playoffs begin tonight with Providence at Lowell. The Chiefs clinch an NCAA berth with a sweep.
Click to expand...

blow hard!!! :D -rimmy
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Interesting, Priceless. I get:

Priceless said:
Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St	Boston C	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Lowell
Denver		Maine		Miami		Mich State
Cornell	        AHA Champ	Merrimack	No Dakota
Click to expand...

Which are really minimal changes in the 4th seeds compared to yours. But, I think it makes sense to keep AHA with BC. And, I like what you did in swapping the MSU/UND game with the Denver game to get Mich State in Green Bay. I don't know the east very well. Is there a big difference in attendance expected in Bridgeport with Merrimack rather than Cornell? Thanks.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Interesting, Priceless. I get:



Which are really minimal changes in the 4th seeds compared to yours. But, I think it makes sense to keep AHA with BC. And, I like what you did in swapping the MSU/UND game with the Denver game to get Mich State in Green Bay. I don't know the east very well. Is there a big difference in attendance expected in Bridgeport with Merrimack rather than Cornell? Thanks.
Click to expand...

I show UMD as the #1 overall seed because they win the comparison with BC 2-1. The comparison they lose is to #7 Minnesota. USCHO and other sites break ties by RPI so they have BC as the #1 overall seed. According to an email I received from Jayson Moy last year, the NCAA has never clarified how H2H ties are broken. The NCAA uses RPI to break ties when three or more teams are involved, but we still don't know about two team ties. I have searched the forum posts from last year and this came up then as well. As I wrote last year "We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams" which I interpret to mean they break ties between two teams by looking at the comparison. I could have sworn the NCAA did clarify this, but I was unable to find anything in the forum archives or my own email.

ETA: The calculator at slack.net does default to UMD as #1 overall, not BC.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
I show UMD as the #1 overall seed because they win the comparison with BC 2-1. The comparison they lose is to #7 Minnesota. USCHO and other sites break ties by RPI so they have BC as the #1 overall seed. According to an email I received from Jayson Moy last year, the NCAA has never clarified how H2H ties are broken. The NCAA uses RPI to break ties when three or more teams are involved, but we still don't know about two team ties. I have searched the forum posts from last year and this came up then as well. As I wrote last year "We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams" which I interpret to mean they break ties between two teams by looking at the comparison. I could have sworn the NCAA did clarify this, but I was unable to find anything in the forum archives or my own email.

ETA: The calculator at slack.net does default to UMD as #1 overall, not BC.
Click to expand...

That does make for an interesting discussion, doesn't it? My personal opinion (and I don't know if the committee has lee way to do this. I know they would on the women's side, but it's a different set of rules that governs the process there) would be that regardless of the details of the comparison between UMD and BC, right now the RPI advantage that BC has should be the dominant feature if you are trying to figure out which is stronger. But, that's just one man's opinion...
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I was looking back through the archives last night and came upon this contradiction. The top seeds in 2005 were Boston College, Minnesota (host), Denver and CC. There was a 3-way tie for 11th between BU, Maine and Wisconsin. Were this three way tie broken by RPI then the result would have been:
11 Boston Univ (HE) 16 0.5685
12 Maine (HE) 16 0.5607
13 Wisconsin (WC) 16 0.5537

Maine and BU would be #3 seeds and Wisconsin would have been a #4. Boston College would have been forced to play Wisconsin to avoid a WCHA game in round one. Instead, that tie was broken:
11 Wisconsin (WC) 16 0.5537
12 Boston Univ (HE) 16 0.5685
13 Maine (HE) 16 0.5607

The Badgers won the comparisons vs Maine and Boston University, despite having the lowest RPI of the three. BU won the comparison with Maine and was seeded 12th. Wisconsin became a #3 seed and an all-WCHA game was averted as Maine dropped to #4 and went to Minnesota.

Contrast that with 2007 when St Lawrence, UMass and Maine were again tied at 11th place. Had the committee followed precedent the tie would have been broken:
11 Mass-Amherst (HE) 13 0.5328
12 St Lawrence (EC) 13 0.5384
13 Maine (HE) 13 0.5366

as the Minutemen won comparisons with both SLU and Maine. SLU then won the comparison with Maine. However, they chose to break the tie by RPI:
11 St Lawrence (EC) 13 0.5384
12 Maine (HE) 13 0.5366
13 Mass-Amherst (HE) 13 0.5328

So UMA was the #4 seed that played Clarkson while Maine was a #3 seed and played St. Cloud.

We have been operating under the belief that the NCAA would break ties involving three teams or more by RPI, however the 2005 case shows that they also break ties using comparisons. The same logic can hold true with ties of two teams. The NCAA has not clarified how ties are broken. More than likely, it is so they can avoid a case like 2005 when they would have either sent #4 Wisconsin to #1 Minnesota or #1 Boston College. This gives them added flexibility at the expense of transparency.
 
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