2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

College Hockey Weekly has their current bracketology up...

http://collegehockeyweekly.com/Current_Pairwise.html

Also, CHW has their forecast of what they think the tournament will ultimately look like...

http://collegehockeyweekly.com/Tournament-Forecast.html

Hey, FS23, you are going to think I don't like you. Sorry about that. But, I have one more question CHW and its current bracketology. Is it OK to ask?

OK. I was reading through the explanation, and it seems that they started by first doing a full serpentine (1-16, 2-25, etc), bracket and then adjusting after that. I have not seen that reasoning before. I thought the committee is supposed to start by putting #1s closest to home in the regionals, and then bracket their opponents after that.

Again, CHW has a preliminary bracket with 2-BC and 7-Minn. I can't see that ever being part of the process. (At least with the current PWR). My understanding is that it would go:
1-UMD to St Paul; 2-BC to Worcester; 3-Mich to Green Bay; 4-FSU to Bridgeport, and then we start with the opponents.

Also, having done all that work, and then wanting to get BC to the east (yes, I don't blame them...), they have this explanation:
1. Duluth
8. Miami
9. Union
16. Air Force

2. Boston College
7. Minnesota
10. Maine
14. North Dakota

3. Michigan
6. Lowell
11. Michigan State
15. Merrimack

4. Ferris State
5. Boston University
12. Northern Michigan
13. Denver

We don't have any intra-conference matchups, but we would really like to see BC out East for attendance purposes. We can't swap BC with Duluth, as that creates another intra-conference matchup, and swapping BC with Michigan creates the same BC-Merrimack matchup. Therefore, we swap Ferris State with BC...Now let's assign regionals and we get...

I want to stop there. I don't understand why it isn't better to swap the whole game - BC/UND for UMD/AFA or, BC/UND for mich/Merr.

Again, I just don't understand the reasoning process here.

I don't mean it's wrong, I am just struggling to understand it.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Hey, FS23, you are going to think I don't like you. Sorry about that. But, I have one more question CHW and its current bracketology. Is it OK to ask?

OK. I was reading through the explanation, and it seems that they started by first doing a full serpentine (1-16, 2-25, etc), bracket and then adjusting after that. I have not seen that reasoning before. I thought the committee is supposed to start by putting #1s closest to home in the regionals, and then bracket their opponents after that.

Again, CHW has a preliminary bracket with 2-BC and 7-Minn. I can't see that ever being part of the process. (At least with the current PWR). My understanding is that it would go:
1-UMD to St Paul; 2-BC to Worcester; 3-Mich to Green Bay; 4-FSU to Bridgeport, and then we start with the opponents.

Also, having done all that work, and then wanting to get BC to the east (yes, I don't blame them...), they have this explanation:
1. Duluth
8. Miami
9. Union
16. Air Force

2. Boston College
7. Minnesota
10. Maine
14. North Dakota

3. Michigan
6. Lowell
11. Michigan State
15. Merrimack

4. Ferris State
5. Boston University
12. Northern Michigan
13. Denver

We don't have any intra-conference matchups, but we would really like to see BC out East for attendance purposes. We can't swap BC with Duluth, as that creates another intra-conference matchup, and swapping BC with Michigan creates the same BC-Merrimack matchup. Therefore, we swap Ferris State with BC...Now let's assign regionals and we get...

I want to stop there. I don't understand why it isn't better to swap the whole game - BC/UND for UMD/AFA or, BC/UND for mich/Merr.

Again, I just don't understand the reasoning process here.

I don't mean it's wrong, I am just struggling to understand it.

My best guess is that they wanted BC to go out East and have North Dakota stay in the West Regional. I was not in on the conference call going over the bracketology this week. It would seem logical to swap the pair, and maintain as much bracket integrity as you can get. Also, I'm not sure why they didn't assign #1 seeds to regionals and then start brackets from there...I'll try to find out more about what went on at the conference call.

I'm always open to questions so don't worry about that...and no worries about not liking me

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

OK. I was reading through the explanation, and it seems that they started by first doing a full serpentine (1-16, 2-25, etc), bracket and then adjusting after that. I have not seen that reasoning before. I thought the committee is supposed to start by putting #1s closest to home in the regionals, and then bracket their opponents after that.

Again, CHW has a preliminary bracket with 2-BC and 7-Minn. I can't see that ever being part of the process. (At least with the current PWR).

Perhaps the bolded is the source for the disconnect? It sounds like their bracket is based upon how they see the rest of the season shaking out and not based upon current PWR? Either way that West regional is a killer.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Perhaps the bolded is the source for the disconnect? It sounds like their bracket is based upon how they see the rest of the season shaking out and not based upon current PWR? Either way that West regional is a killer.

The Bracketology is how they see the tournament looking using the current PWR.

The Tournament Forecast is how they see the PWR eventually shaking out at the end of the Conference Tournaments.

I talked with the editors, and their explanation was that they take the PWR, bracket it based on pure bracket integrity (i.e. 1v16, 2v15...etc.). They then make their changes from there. That was why they had BC and Minnesota in the same bracket (2v15, 7v10 are coupled together using pure bracket integrity). They chose not to ship the entire BC-UND matchup as they think (I do as well) that the committee would want BC out east and North Dakota out west.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

The Bracketology is how they see the tournament looking using the current PWR.

The Tournament Forecast is how they see the PWR eventually shaking out at the end of the Conference Tournaments.

That's I meant to convey - when I used "bracket" I was referring to the Tournament Forecast.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Games that have meaning to pairwise this weekend:

#13 Denver at #30 Nebraska-Omaha: Denver sits on the bubble of making the tournament whereas UNO is on the bubble for being a TUC. Losing them as a TUC would be bad news for Minnesota (2-0) and Denver (currently 1-0-1 vs UNO). To remain a TUC through the weekend, UNO needs at least one tie. A sweep would boost Denver's RPI enough that even losing the Mavs as a TUC would bump them into the top 10 in the pairwise.

#15 Merrimack vs #32 UMass-Amherst: Merrimack is another team sitting on the bubble. UMass needs one win to remain a TUC. Their status is vital to Lowell (3-0) and Maine (2-1-1). On the other hand, BC and Cornell would be very happy to remove their losses against the Minutemen. UMass is also in the race for the final playoff spot in Hockey East. It very well could be that they remain a TUC but fail to make the HEA tournament, thus all but guaranteeing that they remain a TUC in the final rankings.

#27 Northeastern vs #5 Boston University: Lots of teams would be disappointed to see the Huskies fall from TUC status. BC is 4-0, Merrimack is 2-0-1, Lowell and Maine are 2-1. On the other hand, Michigan (0-1), Minnesota (0-1) and Notre Dame (0-2) would love to get those black marks off their TUC record. Anything but a sweep and Northeastern is safe. However, a sweep at the hands of Boston College awaits them if they qualify for the HEA playoffs which will definitively knock them from the ranks of the TUC. Again, the best bet for teams that want them to remain a TUC is one tie this weekend and then miss the league tournament.

#29 New Hampshire at #10 Maine (Saturday): A Maine win puts the Wildcats right on the bubble (.5001 excluding other games) so which way they fall is critical. BC (3-0), BU (3-0), Lowell (2-1) and Maine (2-1) would very much like them to stay a TUC. If Harvard (1-0) or St Cloud (1-0-1) are going to make moves up the pairwise, they need New Hampshire to stay above the magic line. Union (0-1) is the only team that would benefit if UNH falls. A victory by UNH guarantees that they will be a TUC on Selection Sunday, even with a first-round sweep in the HEA playoffs.

#35 Michigan Tech at #21 Colorado College: Tech needs to sweep to become a TUC. If they were to get four points on the road, it would be a big boost to Northern Michigan (2-0), BC (1-0), Michigan State (1-0) and Minn-Duluth (2-1-1). But that seems unlikely... Their best bet is to get a couple of points this weekend, grab home ice and knock off UNO or CC in the WCHA first round. They are a longshot though.

 

[Biddco]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Dear pairwise,

Get UMD out of St. Paul. There will be many Gopher fans and they should protect UMD from that. Plus, it will be more of a pain to get tickets than in Green Bay.

 

[mcfarljd]

Dear pairwise,

Get UMD out of St. Paul. There will be many Gopher fans and they should protect UMD from that. Plus, it will be more of a pain to get tickets than in Green Bay.

They've shown before that they don't care if a high 1 plays in a host teams regional, don't know why they would all of a sudden begin protecting teams

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Dear pairwise,

Get UMD out of St. Paul. There will be many Gopher fans and they should protect UMD from that. Plus, it will be more of a pain to get tickets than in Green Bay.

Then you better start rooting for the Gophers to finish strong and earn a 1-4 spot pairwise and advise tDogs to lay down if they play the Gophers in the Final. :biggrin

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

They've shown before that they don't care if a high 1 plays in a host teams regional, don't know why they would all of a sudden begin protecting teams

Correct. #2 overall Minnesota was placed in the Grand Forks Regional in 2006.

Other examples since the tourney has expanded to 16 teams (please correct me if I have the overall seed incorrect).

#4 overall Miami going to New Hampshire in 2011
#1 overall BU going to New Hampshire in 2009
#1 seed Michigan going to Bridgeport in 2009
#1 seed New Hampshire going to Colorado Springs in 2008
#1 seed North Dakota going to Madison in 2008
#1 seed BC going to New Hampshire in 2004
#1 seed CC going to Ann Arbor in 2003

Obviously, some of these were the team going to the closest regional, but St. Paul would be the closest regional for Duluth.

 

[state of hockey]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I think Duluth was protected plenty with last years regional placement.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Then you better start rooting for the Gophers to finish strong and earn a 1-4 spot pairwise and advise tDogs to lay down if they play the Gophers in the Final. :biggrin

Or hope the Gophers tank the rest of the season and finish as a #4 seed or altogether out of the tournament.

 

[CLS]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

...#15 Merrimack vs #32 UMass-Amherst: Merrimack is another team sitting on the bubble. UMass needs one win to remain a TUC. Their status is vital to Lowell (3-0) and Maine (2-1-1). On the other hand, BC and Cornell would be very happy to remove their losses against the Minutemen. UMass is also in the race for the final playoff spot in Hockey East. It very well could be that they remain a TUC but fail to make the HEA tournament, thus all but guaranteeing that they remain a TUC in the final rankings.

...

Is Merrimack in a no-win situation in which if they sweep, they lose because UMA is no longer a TUC, but if they don't sweep, UMA is a TUC, but Merrimack loses the comparison?

 

[Amsoil]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Or hope the Gophers tank the rest of the season and finish as a #4 seed or altogether out of the tournament.

Or have UMD drop to a two or three seed along with Minnesota. If both UMD and Minnesota finish as 2 or 3 seeds they could not be matched up in the first round and thus UMD would not be assigned to St. Paul.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Is Merrimack in a no-win situation in which if they sweep, they lose because UMA is no longer a TUC, but if they don't sweep, UMA is a TUC, but Merrimack loses the comparison?

Even if they knock UMA out with a sweep, the RPI boost they get is worth more than the TUC boost. Just looking at those two games, a sweep by MC moves them to #13 overall, a split drops them to #16.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Edit: The game has gone final.

1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 30
2 Boston Coll (HE) 28
3 Michigan (CC) 28
4 Boston Univ (HE) 27
5 Mass-Lowell (HE) 26
6 Ferris State (CC) 26
7 Minnesota (WC) 23
8 Union (EC) 23
9 Miami (CC) 21
10 Mich State (CC) 20
11 Northern Mich (CC) 20
12 Maine (HE) 20
13 Denver U (WC) 19
14 North Dakota (WC) 17
15 Cornell (EC) 16
---
16 Merrimack (HE) 16

[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Boston U	Boston Coll	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Lowell		Union		Minnesota	Ferris St
No Mich		Miami		Mich St		Maine
Denver		Cornell		AHA Champ	No Dakota

Bridgeport suddenly looks a lot tougher, doesn't it?

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless,

Perhaps as a bit of commentary for people to watch continuing on, it seems to me that there is a huge difference in especially UMD's seeding depending on whether or not Bemidji ends up as TUC. Personally, with the bulldogs RPI as low as it is, I think justice would be served for BSU to drop TUC status. But, then, as a Gopher fan, I see the same effects on my school as on UMD, and I would like them to retain TUC status.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless,

Perhaps as a bit of commentary for people to watch continuing on, it seems to me that there is a huge difference in especially UMD's seeding depending on whether or not Bemidji ends up as TUC. Personally, with the bulldogs RPI as low as it is, I think justice would be served for BSU to drop TUC status. But, then, as a Gopher fan, I see the same effects on my school as on UMD, and I would like them to retain TUC status.

The TUC criteria is easily the least popular. No matter if it is the top 25 or RPI >.5000 or whatever people just don't like it.

One suggestion is to only include teams that make the tournament as TUC. That would yield


1 Boston Coll (HE) 14
2 Michigan (CC) 13
3 Ferris State (CC) 12
4 Boston Univ (HE) 11
5 Minn-Duluth (WC) 10
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 9
7 Minnesota (WC) 7
8 Mich State (CC) 6
9 Miami (CC) 5
10 Union (EC) 4
11 Northern Mich (CC) 4
12 Maine (HE) 4
13 Denver U (WC) 4
14 North Dakota (WC) 1
15 Cornell (EC) 1

[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Boston U	Boston Coll	Michigan	Ferris St
Duluth		Mich St		Minnesota	Lowell
Maine		Union		Miami		No Mich
Denver		AHA Champ	Cornell		No Dakota

 

[Biddco]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Or hope the Gophers tank the rest of the season and finish as a #4 seed or altogether out of the tournament.

So I don't have to change what I root for? Awesome.

I think Duluth was protected plenty with last years regional placement.

False. We beat the team with a deadly power play and the number one overall seed.


Sounds like I'll just have to suck it up, save some money on travel and deal with a ton of Gopher fans. Plus I probably can tailgate!

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Biddco and other Bulldog fans,

I think there are 2 options for your school. One is, hope that Bemidji retains TUC status, and then the Bulldogs will likely have a #1 seed, and go to St Paul. Nice for you so you have the last line change, etc. The other option is, hope that Bemidji loses TUC status, then you are likely not a #1 seed anywhere, and you could end up in Worcester or Bridgeport, too, as well as Green Bay. It doesn't really matter to me, but it looks like those are your options.