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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

JF_Gophers said:
The real flaw is in looking at PWR before all games are complete. If they end up #2 in PWR, its not because they "moved up". It was the only position they ever had, as PWR is meant to be calculated at the end.

Everything before that is just for speculation and entertainment purposes.
Click to expand...

JF - I agree with the comment about speculation and entertainment. I get that. However, I would have to disagree about there being no merit at looking at the PWR ahead of time. This is why: It is the only tool the committee has to use to choose the teams in the tourney. It is reasonable to ask: "Is this a good tool for that purpose?" Of course, this has been argued for a long time in this board. But, the way you learn the answer is by playing the 'what if' game. (I suppose you could argue that that is just speculation and entertainment as well.)

And, I would like to ask a question of you. If you really believe there is no reason to look at the PWR before the season ends, then why are you reading this thread? I mean, if PWR doesn't exist until season end, then bracketology doesn't either, so why read here?

Please understand, I am not meaning to disrespect your post. I am just trying to understand your interest.

Thanks.
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
JF - I agree with the comment about speculation and entertainment. I get that. However, I would have to disagree about there being no merit at looking at the PWR ahead of time. This is why: It is the only tool the committee has to use to choose the teams in the tourney. It is reasonable to ask: "Is this a good tool for that purpose?" Of course, this has been argued for a long time in this board. But, the way you learn the answer is by playing the 'what if' game. (I suppose you could argue that that is just speculation and entertainment as well.)

And, I would like to ask a question of you. If you really believe there is no reason to look at the PWR before the season ends, then why are you reading this thread? I mean, if PWR doesn't exist until season end, then bracketology doesn't either, so why read here?

Please understand, I am not meaning to disrespect your post. I am just trying to understand your interest.

Thanks.
Click to expand...
I read it for entertainment. Nearly every D1 thread this time of year becomes a trainwreck. :D
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

JF_Gophers said:
I read it for entertainment. Nearly every D1 thread this time of year becomes a trainwreck. :D
Click to expand...

I would sure believe that. Most fans have very strong emotional connections to everything about their team, and toward the end of the season that comes out more and more... Trainwreck - interesting word....
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

OK, I'll do it myself:
2 games left. Regardless of outcome, the top 8 are:
1-BC
2-FSU
3-UMD
4-Mich
5-BU
6-UML
7-Minn
8-Miami

So:
Worcester: 1-BC, 8-Miami
Green Bay: 2-FSU, 6-UML
St Paul: 3-UMD, 7-Minn
Bridgeport: 4-Mich, 5-BU

If UND wins tonight, it doesn't matter who wins the Gov Cup game, the #3 seeds will be : UND, Corn, Union, and MichSt ::: and the #4 seeds would be : NoMich, Maine, DU and AHA champ. In these case, UND can't face Minnesota, and NoMich can't face Mich or FSU, so the bracket would go:

Worcester: 1-BC v 16-AHA; 8-Miami v 9(or10)-UND
Green Bay: 2-FSU v 15-Denver(or Maine); 6-UML v 11-Union
St Paul: 3-UMD v 13-NoMichigan; 7-Minnesota v 10(or9)-Cornell
Bridgeport: 4-Michigan v 14-Maine(or Denver); 5-BU v 12-MichState
And, it's highly likely that the committee would put Maine in Bridgeport regardless of the actual seeding.

If, however, Denver comes back and wins tonight, the situation changes lots. In that scenario, UND misses the tourney, and the #3 seeds are (Denver, Cornell, Union), Mich St or (Cornell, Union, Denver), Mich St ::: and the #4s are in order, regardless of outcome or AA/Ak game : NoMich, Merrimack, and Maine.

So, we get:
Worcester: 1-BC v 16-AHA; 8-Miami v 9-(Denver or Cornell)
Green Bay: 2-FSU v 15-Maine; 6-UML v 11-(Union or Denver)
St Paul: 3-UMD v 13-NoMichigan; 7-Minnesota v 10-(Cornell or Union)
Bridgeport: 4-Michigan v 14-Merrimack; 5-BU v 12-MichState where NoMich and Merrimack are switched to avoid CCHA v CCHA.

Here, Denver is #9 if Anchorage wins. My guess is that the committee would likely choose to have Cornell in Worcester, because they might help the draw....

Anyway, that's the best I can do tonight.
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

If scores hold (UAA is up 3-1 and UND is up 4-1)


1 Boston Coll (HE) 29 0.5698
2 Ferris State (CC) 28 0.5626
3 Minn-Duluth (WC) 27 0.5533
4 Michigan (CC) 26 0.5596
5 Boston Univ (HE) 25 0.5520
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 24 0.5487
7 Minnesota (WC) 22 0.5491
8 Miami (CC) 22 0.5429
9 North Dakota (WC) 20 0.5422
10 Cornell (EC) 20 0.5415
11 Union (EC) 19 0.5421
12 Mich State (CC) 17 0.5440
13 Northern Mich (CC) 16 0.5369
14 Denver U (WC) 16 0.5346
15 Maine (HE) 15 0.5395
---
16 Merrimack (HE) 15 0.5356


Code: 
[B]Bridgeport		Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Michigan		Boston Coll	Ferris State	Minn-Duluth
Boston U		Miami		Minnesota	Lowell
Mich State		North Dakota	Cornell		Union
Maine		        AHA Champ	Denver		Northern Mich

The TUC line

NorthEastern 0.5083
New Hampshire 0.5074
NE-Omaha 0.5073
Bemidji State 0.5070
Wisconsin 0.5065
---
Air Force 0.4999
Mass-Amherst 0.4973
RIT 0.4967
Niagara 0.4965
Providence 0.4960
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless, I had one difference. I swapped #11 Union and #12 Michigan State. So, BU vs. Union in Bridgeport and UML vs. MSU in Green Bay.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Are the regional tickets really priced differently? I noticed that Green Bay is $35 cheaper a ticket than St. Paul, that's a huge difference for a group of people. So avoiding St. Paul may not only be for match up purposes but also for preserving your pocketbook. It just seems ridiculous to have unequal standards for different "neutral" sites.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

hattrick16 said:
Are the regional tickets really priced differently? I noticed that Green Bay is $35 cheaper a ticket than St. Paul, that's a huge difference for a group of people. So avoiding St. Paul may not only be for match up purposes but also for preserving your pocketbook. It just seems ridiculous to have unequal standards for different "neutral" sites.
Click to expand...

Supply and demand.

Fact is tickets to any NCAA regional are way overpriced.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Doesn't the NCAA set a floor and ceiling on the price and then leave it up to the host institution to charge whatever they think they can get?

Notre Dame waaaaaaay overpriced the tickets to the regional they hosted in Fort Wayne in 2010 (assuming incorrectly they'd make the show) and that had to lead to less than appealing crowd totals.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

The Green Bay regional has tickets for all sessions for 66 bucks. That is 40 to 60 dollars less than I thought it was. That comes out to 22 a game, which is not that bad. I wonder if that is as low as they go.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Not counting fees, tickets range from $60 in Bridgeport to $90 in St. Paul. My guess is the St. Paul folks figure with Minnesota in the house, drawing huge crowds will not be a problem, despite the steepest price among the four regions.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Depending on the outcome in Alaska...

If Alaska wins:


1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31 0.5568
2 Boston Coll (HE) 30 0.5711
3 Michigan (CC) 29 0.5611
4 Ferris State (CC) 27 0.5582
5 Boston Univ (HE) 27 0.5533
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27 0.5477
7 Minnesota (WC) 25 0.5505
8 Miami (CC) 23 0.5459
9 Union (EC) 23 0.5454
10 Maine (HE) 22 0.5421
11 Mich State (CC) 20 0.5472
12 Northern Mich (CC) 20 0.5402
13 Denver U (WC) 20 0.5378
14 North Dakota (WC) 18 0.5377
15 Merrimack (HE) 18 0.5350
---
16 Cornell (EC) 16 0.5341

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport		Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St		Boston Coll	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Boston U		Miami		Minnesota	Lowell
Northern Mich		Maine		Union		Mich State
Denver		        North Dakota	AHA Champ	Merrimack

The TUC line:

NorthEastern 0.5049
Air Force 0.5042
New Hampshire 0.5032
Bemidji State 0.5030
NE-Omaha 0.5029
Mass-Amherst 0.5009
---
RIT 0.4977
Niagara 0.4970
Michigan Tech 0.4962



If Anchorage wins or there is a tie:

1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31
2 Boston Coll (HE) 30
3 Michigan (CC) 29
4 Ferris State (CC) 27
5 Boston Univ (HE) 27
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27
7 Minnesota (WC) 25
8 Union (EC) 24
9 Miami (CC) 22
10 Maine (HE) 22
11 Mich State (CC) 20
12 Northern Mich (CC) 20
13 Denver U (WC) 20
14 North Dakota (WC) 18
15 Merrimack (HE) 18
---
16 Cornell (EC) 16

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport		Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St		Boston Coll	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Boston U		Union		Minnesota	Lowell
Northern Mich		Maine		Miami		Mich State
Denver		        North Dakota	AHA Champ	Merrimack

TUC line:

NorthEastern 0.5048
Air Force 0.5043
NE-Omaha 0.5036
Bemidji State 0.5034
New Hampshire 0.5033
Mass-Amherst 0.5009
---
RIT 0.4977
Michigan Tech 0.4970
Niagara 0.4970
(If Anchorage wins, the WCHA teams in the TUC line will have their RPI improve slightly)


Based on the outcome in Fairbanks, either Union or Miami would finish 8th and avoid playing Minnesota in St. Paul. The higher seeded team gets the #2 seed in Worcester and plays Maine.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
Depending on the outcome in Alaska...

If Alaska wins:


1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31 0.5568
2 Boston Coll (HE) 30 0.5711
3 Michigan (CC) 29 0.5611
4 Ferris State (CC) 27 0.5582
5 Boston Univ (HE) 27 0.5533
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27 0.5477
7 Minnesota (WC) 25 0.5505
8 Miami (CC) 23 0.5459
9 Union (EC) 23 0.5454
10 Maine (HE) 22 0.5421
11 Mich State (CC) 20 0.5472
12 Northern Mich (CC) 20 0.5402
13 Denver U (WC) 20 0.5378
14 North Dakota (WC) 18 0.5377
15 Merrimack (HE) 18 0.5350
---
16 Cornell (EC) 16 0.5341

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport		Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St		Boston Coll	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Boston U		Miami		Minnesota	Lowell
Northern Mich		Maine		Union		Mich State
Denver		        North Dakota	AHA Champ	Merrimack

The TUC line:

NorthEastern 0.5049
Air Force 0.5042
New Hampshire 0.5032
Bemidji State 0.5030
NE-Omaha 0.5029
Mass-Amherst 0.5009
---
RIT 0.4977
Niagara 0.4970
Michigan Tech 0.4962



If Anchorage wins or there is a tie:

1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31
2 Boston Coll (HE) 30
3 Michigan (CC) 29
4 Ferris State (CC) 27
5 Boston Univ (HE) 27
6 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27
7 Minnesota (WC) 25
8 Union (EC) 24
9 Miami (CC) 22
10 Maine (HE) 22
11 Mich State (CC) 20
12 Northern Mich (CC) 20
13 Denver U (WC) 20
14 North Dakota (WC) 18
15 Merrimack (HE) 18
---
16 Cornell (EC) 16

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport		Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St		Boston Coll	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Boston U		Union		Minnesota	Lowell
Northern Mich		Maine		Miami		Mich State
Denver		        North Dakota	AHA Champ	Merrimack

TUC line:

NorthEastern 0.5048
Air Force 0.5043
NE-Omaha 0.5036
Bemidji State 0.5034
New Hampshire 0.5033
Mass-Amherst 0.5009
---
RIT 0.4977
Michigan Tech 0.4970
Niagara 0.4970
(If Anchorage wins, the WCHA teams in the TUC line will have their RPI improve slightly)


Based on the outcome in Fairbanks, either Union or Miami would finish 8th and avoid playing Minnesota in St. Paul. The higher seeded team gets the #2 seed in Worcester and plays Maine.
Click to expand...

Totally agree, Priceless. Also, interesting that UMD, although the overall #1, does not have normal #1 credentials. Their RPI is lower than both Michigan and BC. Thus, it is less bothersome to send them to St Paul, and a potential 2nd round matchup with Minnesota, than if they had highest RPI, highest TUC ranking, etc.

Were it the case that UMD were head and shoulders above everyone, I would consider sending them to Green Bay, to keep them away from Minnesota.
 
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