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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Patman said:
I'm trying to remember who their beanpot first round was against... if it's bc, bc is going to win a lot in the next few weeks... that'll help pull them above water as well.
Click to expand...

It was BC, Patman. But, that's not as obvious a result as it looks. BC has a great record already, so a few extra wins won't raise their win% that much. Particularly since whoever BC beats will have a lower win% as a result, and so it almost balances out, right?

I think that NE' non-conference schedule is more important for this calculation. That would be Michigan, 2 with Notre Dame, Princeton, Minnesota, and Harvard. Also, I understand that the Beanpot BC game is like an extra free bee, because it's non-conference. I would guess the 2 NoDame games on their schedule mean that NoDame's results may have the greatest effect, particularly if they balance strongly toward wins or losses. For example, if NoDame loses 2 tonight and tomorrow against OSU, or splits and then is swept next weekend, it lowers their win% by .027. 21% of that is about .006, and that counts for about 2/34 of NE's sched, so 1/17 of that makes, in the end, a decrease in NE's RPI of about .0003 or .0004. And, all those other teams have the ability to make about 1/2 that much difference. It is going to go up and down quite a bit.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

UNHHurstFan said:
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973



Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?
Click to expand...

That's the TUC line. Not even close to the bubble for the NCAA. The AHA will only get the autobid this year.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

No matter what happens in Anchorage


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Michigan (CC)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
5 Ferris State (CC)
6 Boston Univ (HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 Union (EC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Maine (HE)
11 Denver U (WC)
12 Mich State (CC)
13 North Dakota (WC)
14 Northern Mich (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)

Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.


Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		Boston C	Michigan	Duluth
Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Ferris St
Mich St		Maine		Miami		Denver
No Dakota	AHA Champ	Cornell		No Mich
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
No matter what happens in Anchorage


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Michigan (CC)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
5 Ferris State (CC)
6 Boston Univ (HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 Union (EC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Maine (HE)
11 Denver U (WC)
12 Mich State (CC)
13 North Dakota (WC)
14 Northern Mich (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)

Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.


Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		Boston C	Michigan	Duluth
Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Ferris St
Mich St		Maine		Miami		Denver
No Dakota	AHA Champ	Cornell		No Mich
Click to expand...

Agree, totally, Priceless. There is another option, in which the committee decides that Mich/UML/UMD are all the same, and then sends UMD to St Paul anyway, but it gets really complicated and convoluted by the time it works out. EDIT:: That option basically ends up with just the Mich/Corn game and the UMD/No Mich game swapping places.

I have looked at the PWR a little in its current state. UMD has lots of downside left. That's because it is still really out of position in the PWR compared to RPI. What is propping them up right now is a very good TUC record, and we know that can be vulnerable. Not to their own play, because they have only 1 more potential loss to a TUC on their sched, but rather to opponents falling off the TUC cliff.
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

And, for all who are interested, there is one big thing to watch for: BC, UML and BU all can have their TUC record changed alot by New Hampshire and Mass-Amherst falling off the TUC cliff. That could end up affecting lots of compares.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
And, for all who are interested, there is one big thing to watch for: BC, UML and BU all can have their TUC record changed alot by New Hampshire and Mass-Amherst falling off the TUC cliff. That could end up affecting lots of compares.
Click to expand...

Yeah... I'd rather that UMass had kept its lead against Merrimack... they weren't going to fall out at that point.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Biddco said:
False. We beat the team with a deadly power play and the number one overall seed.
Click to expand...
And beat us you did(Union).

Hopefully, if we make it in this year, we might progress to actually scoring a goal...;)

At least we got trampled by the eventual National Champions.....

Keith.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
And, the NCAA would never do this, but I would take all the teams above whatever cutoff you want, and then use KRACH as a measuring stick, and I would ask the Math guys at Cornell to work out the most fair compare.
Click to expand...

I'm sure the folks over at Clarkson and RPI would be offended by this decision...;)

Keith.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Patman said:
Yeah... I'd rather that UMass had kept its lead against Merrimack... they weren't going to fall out at that point.
Click to expand...

Amherst took 2 against BC this year already. I doubt they'll win their quarterfinal series, but they might be able to push it to 3. However, the two wins were at the Mullins and not at Conte.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

bottomdweller said:
Amherst took 2 against BC this year already. I doubt they'll win their quarterfinal series, but they might be able to push it to 3. However, the two wins were at the Mullins and not at Conte.
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I'd be overjoyed if UMass took out BC... I haven't looked at the math to see if 1 of 3 will do it but it'd be helpful to keep them in. As it is, NU will stay in so that's a good thing.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
No matter what happens in Anchorage


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Michigan (CC)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
5 Ferris State (CC)
6 Boston Univ (HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 Union (EC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Maine (HE)
11 Denver U (WC)
12 Mich State (CC)
13 North Dakota (WC)
14 Northern Mich (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)

Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.


Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		Boston C	Michigan	Duluth
Boston U	Union		Minnesota	Ferris St
Mich St		Maine		Miami		Denver
No Dakota	AHA Champ	Cornell		No Mich
Click to expand...

I'm curious. Can you explain why Michigan would not be assigned to Green Bay and UMD to St. Paul as Michigan is closer to Green Bay and UMD is closer to St. Paul in the assignment of the #1 seeds. Is it because it is a flight for Michigan either way due to the drive being more than 5 hours and it is a better fit from a seed integrity standpoint?
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Amsoil said:
I'm curious. Can you explain why Michigan would not be assigned to Green Bay and UMD to St. Paul as Michigan is closer to Green Bay and UMD is closer to St. Paul in the assignment of the #1 seeds. Is it because it is a flight for Michigan either way due to the drive being more than 5 hours and it is a better fit from a seed integrity standpoint?
Click to expand...

Because they're flying. It's reinforced because they're the #2 overall seed and Minnesota is #7. 4v7 and 2v5 are not matchups the committee wants. So, both. :)
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

The script for tonight's Game 3's

20120304 SH 0 By 1 nc
20120304 AI 0 RM 1 nc
20120304 BG 0 NM 1 nc
20120304 RP 0 Ck 1 nc
20120304 Bn 0 Qn 1 nc
20120304 Pn 0 Ya 1 nc

All of these teams are playing for their tournament lives. A loss tonight for Northern Michigan drops them to #16, 2 comparisons behind Cornell and Merrimack. With no games left, hard to see a way for NMU to get back in the field.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
The script for tonight's Game 3's

20120304 SH 0 By 1 nc
20120304 AI 0 RM 1 nc
20120304 BG 0 NM 1 nc
20120304 RP 0 Ck 1 nc
20120304 Bn 0 Qn 1 nc
20120304 Pn 0 Ya 1 nc

All of these teams are playing for their tournament lives. A loss tonight for Northern Michigan drops them to #16, 2 comparisons behind Cornell and Merrimack. With no games left, hard to see a way for NMU to get back in the field.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the thought, Priceless. What happens if NoMich loses to BG, and then next week Cornell or Merrimack lose their quarterfinal? Could NoMich do the ultimate back-in? What I get is that both the NoMich/Corn and the NoMich/Merri compares are entirely RPI dependent, and 2 losses by either Corn or Merri would swing them back to NoMich. Do you concur?
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Appreciate the thought, Priceless. What happens if NoMich loses to BG, and then next week Cornell or Merrimack lose their quarterfinal? Could NoMich do the ultimate back-in?
Click to expand...

without looking... I'd say yes... but a lot of this game is spoken through TUC.

Tournament time... generally... 1. Hard to fall significantly. 2. Easy to move up.

Now, this year is a bit different... the RPI is really tight between the teams from about 4-18 or so. While certain schools have more cushion others are clearly all out of cushion. PWR is a very SENSITIVE procedure... so until we get down to next week we don't know a whole lot.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Appreciate the thought, Priceless. What happens if NoMich loses to BG, and then next week Cornell or Merrimack lose their quarterfinal? Could NoMich do the ultimate back-in?
Click to expand...

RPI did. The Wildcats could.
 
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