I categorize PA like I do WI, MN, and to some extent AZ. Every 4 years there's talk of "swing state" "purple state" "could go either way" etc etc. The problem is those states have voted either Dem or GOP consistantly. I believe PA since 1992, WI the same, MN maybe back to at least 1988 and AZ 1996 for the only time since 1948! So when 2008 rolled around, I wasn't counting on NC or Indiana ending up Dem. It happened that way because the election was a blowout. If Obama loses PA in 2012, he'd be on his way to a Dukakis type arse kicking anyway. On the flip side, if a surge in Hispanic voting ended up flipping AZ, that means their votes have surged everwhere (like Florida for instance) and the election will already be over before that state is called.
So, for me the tipping point states I'll call them are Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, followed then by Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire. If Obama is leading in a place like North Carolina, or the Republican candidate is winning Wisconsin or Iowa going into election night, that indicates to me that a lot of other swing states have already gone overwhelmingly one way or the other.
