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2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
- Thread starter Kepler
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Do you know anyone at one of the think tanks that would be willing to commission such a poll / study? I'd be fascinated to see the results, as I'm sure many others would be.
Well yes - but does such data exist? If so, I can't find it.
Do you know anyone at one of the think tanks that would be willing to commission such a poll / study? I'd be fascinated to see the results, as I'm sure many others would be.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Definitely. But good luck finding a political think tank that is not heavily funded by either Brand X or Brand Y, both of whom prefer the veils they currently live behind.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
...thankfully we have some 'smart' guys around to help us.
I said...you can't look at voters to say this is a center-right country as that doesn't equate to US citizens.
...thankfully we have some 'smart' guys around to help us.
I said...you can't look at voters to say this is a center-right country as that doesn't equate to US citizens.
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Unbiased, longitudinal, concrete issues polling is REALLY rare. Most unbiased polling concentrates on topical issues that fade after a while or abstractions (right direction, approval, etc). Almost all concrete issue polling that does happen is overtly biased by question framing to get the result commissioned by some advocacy group.
I have seen longitudinal polling on specific social issues by neutral firms like Gallup. They're the ones for instance that show virtually identical 30-50 year arcs in public acceptance of inter-ethnic, inter-faith, inter-racial, and now gay marriage. Abortion is one of the most interesting of these, since it (1) has a very specific target, and (2) actually weaves back and forth, as opposed to the other social issues which are tales of generational oblivion (tolerance has, so far at least, been happily a one-way function).
The stuff I'd love to see would be specific economic questions. We have fragmented polling data on health care, but the darn questions change all the time so it's very hard to infer any trending. One should be able to come up with a few crux economic polling questions that measure liberalism or conservatism and aren't tied to a particular era's hot button. The trick is to capture the evergreen economic debates that never die. Should corporations be considered fictive persons under the law? Should political campaigns be publicly financed? At what rate should capital gains be taxed? Should payroll taxes be capped and where? A battery of 20 questions carving up the economic sphere, balanced by advocates of both sides, and then asked doggedly in the same way, generation after generation, would really give us some idea both of how the political center shifts and where at any given time the parties stand in relation to the center of gravity. I think that would be a fascinating story.
The way the chart at Bakunin's link is layed out is fantastic -- that's definitely the form I would look for.
Unbiased, longitudinal, concrete issues polling is REALLY rare. Most unbiased polling concentrates on topical issues that fade after a while or abstractions (right direction, approval, etc). Almost all concrete issue polling that does happen is overtly biased by question framing to get the result commissioned by some advocacy group.
I have seen longitudinal polling on specific social issues by neutral firms like Gallup. They're the ones for instance that show virtually identical 30-50 year arcs in public acceptance of inter-ethnic, inter-faith, inter-racial, and now gay marriage. Abortion is one of the most interesting of these, since it (1) has a very specific target, and (2) actually weaves back and forth, as opposed to the other social issues which are tales of generational oblivion (tolerance has, so far at least, been happily a one-way function).
The stuff I'd love to see would be specific economic questions. We have fragmented polling data on health care, but the darn questions change all the time so it's very hard to infer any trending. One should be able to come up with a few crux economic polling questions that measure liberalism or conservatism and aren't tied to a particular era's hot button. The trick is to capture the evergreen economic debates that never die. Should corporations be considered fictive persons under the law? Should political campaigns be publicly financed? At what rate should capital gains be taxed? Should payroll taxes be capped and where? A battery of 20 questions carving up the economic sphere, balanced by advocates of both sides, and then asked doggedly in the same way, generation after generation, would really give us some idea both of how the political center shifts and where at any given time the parties stand in relation to the center of gravity. I think that would be a fascinating story.
The way the chart at Bakunin's link is layed out is fantastic -- that's definitely the form I would look for.
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
that truly would be tricky. I think of the people who say no on this one, some proportion would be conservatives who don't want business owners double(triple?)-taxed, but then some proportion would be liberals who think they're not taxed enough or should have less rights in some other area.
that truly would be tricky. I think of the people who say no on this one, some proportion would be conservatives who don't want business owners double(triple?)-taxed, but then some proportion would be liberals who think they're not taxed enough or should have less rights in some other area.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
You could easily come up with a 20 question survey and gear all questions toward taxation / spending priorities; there's no need to make it too complicated.
Social Security-related questions could ask about the payroll tax (rate and cap on income that is subject to the tax) as well as benefits (means test them and/or cap them to keep the system solvent, raise the retirement age again, etc).
Income tax questions could deal with whether or not we should eliminate various deductions and credits and/or raise rates to bring in more revenue. The capital gains tax issue as well as inheritance (death tax) could be dealt with here as well.
Defense spending / interventionism could also be a topic - that one has been with us for a long time.
Immigration is another one that could be included - how we should deal with the illegals already in-country, what to do about future ones, whether or not our approach to legal immigration should be changed, etc.
You could easily come up with a 20 question survey and gear all questions toward taxation / spending priorities; there's no need to make it too complicated.
Social Security-related questions could ask about the payroll tax (rate and cap on income that is subject to the tax) as well as benefits (means test them and/or cap them to keep the system solvent, raise the retirement age again, etc).
Income tax questions could deal with whether or not we should eliminate various deductions and credits and/or raise rates to bring in more revenue. The capital gains tax issue as well as inheritance (death tax) could be dealt with here as well.
Defense spending / interventionism could also be a topic - that one has been with us for a long time.
Immigration is another one that could be included - how we should deal with the illegals already in-country, what to do about future ones, whether or not our approach to legal immigration should be changed, etc.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Good point, which is why smart sampling and polling people should design the questions, not me spitballing.
There's a whole technical discipline concerning how to design questions that are lucid, targeted, properly sequenced, unbiased, etc.
that truly would be tricky. I think of the people who say no on this one, some proportion would be conservatives who don't want business owners double(triple?)-taxed, but then some proportion would be liberals who think they're not taxed enough or should have less rights in some other area.
Good point, which is why smart sampling and polling people should design the questions, not me spitballing.
There's a whole technical discipline concerning how to design questions that are lucid, targeted, properly sequenced, unbiased, etc.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
The more I think about this, the more it makes sense that a university should be doing it. This seems like it'd be right up the alley of a good political science department.Good point, which is why smart sampling and polling people should design the questions, not me spitballing.
There's a whole technical discipline concerning how to design questions that are lucid, targeted, properly sequenced, unbiased, etc.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Could use ontheissues.org framework. See the bottom summarization:
http://ontheissues.org/Ron_Paul.htm
Could use ontheissues.org framework. See the bottom summarization:
http://ontheissues.org/Ron_Paul.htm
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I think the reason this isn't done is that we'd find out we all basically agree and a million people would be out of a job, including a lot of lobbyists and Bill O'Reilly.
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
And of course no one would question research done by a university.
And of course no one would question research done by a university.
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Sarah Palin quits again. This time her bus tour. LeBron thinks she quits way too early.
Meanwhile, Bachmann is reportedly going to formally announce her campaign for president at Waterloo, IA. Begin Napoleon jokes...now...
Sarah Palin quits again. This time her bus tour. LeBron thinks she quits way too early.
Meanwhile, Bachmann is reportedly going to formally announce her campaign for president at Waterloo, IA. Begin Napoleon jokes...now...
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Nobody quits better than Sarah.
Future President Michele Bachmann is smartly positioning herself as an Iowan, distancing herself from Minnesota. Very smart. With Huckabee having won in Iowa last time she can get a head start by winning Iowa, showing up in New Hampshire, and then crushing the competition in Tea Party friendly South Carolina. Romney won't know what hit him.
Nobody quits better than Sarah.
Future President Michele Bachmann is smartly positioning herself as an Iowan, distancing herself from Minnesota. Very smart. With Huckabee having won in Iowa last time she can get a head start by winning Iowa, showing up in New Hampshire, and then crushing the competition in Tea Party friendly South Carolina. Romney won't know what hit him.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I'm not ready to give up on the country to this degree. The GOP, sure. But not the reality-based community.
I'm not ready to give up on the country to this degree. The GOP, sure. But not the reality-based community.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Bachmann announced she was running at the debate. Next week, she's announcing she's running in Iowa and Wednesday morning, she's going to announce that she will announce that she's running.
She's kinda the opposite of Palin.
Bachmann announced she was running at the debate. Next week, she's announcing she's running in Iowa and Wednesday morning, she's going to announce that she will announce that she's running.
She's kinda the opposite of Palin.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Funny. You know, somebody not named "Romney" is going to win those Southern primaries. Its easier if Perry gets in, but if he doesn't Bachmann's about as good a bet as anybody. Pawlenty doesn't seem to appeal to the hard core base nearly as well. Lets say she wins Iowa, loses NH by a lot, but wins South Carolina. Under that scenario Pawlenty is gone, and Huntsman's running on fumes unless he wins Nevada. Then the next big state I believe is Florida which is going to be real interesting...
More likely I can see Perry jumping in and squeezing out everybody else, thus giving Romney an excuse for not winning down South. Perry and Romney play nice during the primaries as Perry has little appeal in the rust belt or California. That leaves a Romney-Perry ticket which most likely loses but keeps it reasonable, and then allows Perry to serve out his term as governor and become the frontrunner for the nomination next time around (although he will be 66 I believe by that point).
EDIT: Personally I hope Perry doesn't jump in. I don't know much about the guy either way but I'm fascinated to see who wins those Southern primaries with no real regional favorite in the race.
Funny. You know, somebody not named "Romney" is going to win those Southern primaries. Its easier if Perry gets in, but if he doesn't Bachmann's about as good a bet as anybody. Pawlenty doesn't seem to appeal to the hard core base nearly as well. Lets say she wins Iowa, loses NH by a lot, but wins South Carolina. Under that scenario Pawlenty is gone, and Huntsman's running on fumes unless he wins Nevada. Then the next big state I believe is Florida which is going to be real interesting...
More likely I can see Perry jumping in and squeezing out everybody else, thus giving Romney an excuse for not winning down South. Perry and Romney play nice during the primaries as Perry has little appeal in the rust belt or California. That leaves a Romney-Perry ticket which most likely loses but keeps it reasonable, and then allows Perry to serve out his term as governor and become the frontrunner for the nomination next time around (although he will be 66 I believe by that point).
EDIT: Personally I hope Perry doesn't jump in. I don't know much about the guy either way but I'm fascinated to see who wins those Southern primaries with no real regional favorite in the race.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Reasonable, except why would Perry want to "risk" being veep? For that matter, doesn't he gain just as much for himself, without risking the exposure of a campaign, not running and then playing the "we need a southern conservative" card in 2016?
Reasonable, except why would Perry want to "risk" being veep? For that matter, doesn't he gain just as much for himself, without risking the exposure of a campaign, not running and then playing the "we need a southern conservative" card in 2016?
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Well, they could get each party to sign off on the questions for not being slanted unfairly against them, and that should blunt most of the idiotic criticism that is aimed at studies.
Given how poorly educated people are, what are the odds that half of them would even get the joke?Priceless said:
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