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2012 Elections in 3-D!

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

You guys are being a little hard on the O. Passing healthcare, bailing out auto industry and bagging Bin Laden took leadership. When even simple things (such as nuclear arms control) are now subject to rampant idiocy by the other side, that's not a bad set of accomplishments.

les, coming from a working class family myself, I will say that an older segment of the population is stuck in a timewarp of the late 70's-early 80's where the blue collar working class jobs went away while gas prices skyrocketed, and an ineffectual Democratic President seems unable to do anything. Then Reagan came along, times got good and the US started re-asserting itself again militarily for the first time since Vietnam. Putting aside how much of that is true vs myth, the bottom line is people from their late 50's to their 70's seem really caught up in this and resist all the changes that have occured since (gay marriage being a prominent example). There's also an odd need to find another enemy on a par with the old Soviet Union.

Lastly, and this is strictly my own personal opinion, but I think a lot of people use voting Republican as a proxy for actually going to church and living a moral life. So, you could have a guy who hits the Indian casino every weekend, hasn't been to church since his 2nd wedding and takes the Lord's name in vain on a daily basis, but that's okay because he's voting Santorum due to his strong family values platform.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Rover said:
les, coming from a working class family myself, I will say that an older segment of the population is stuck in a timewarp of the late 70's-early 80's where the blue collar working class jobs went away while gas prices skyrocketed, and an ineffectual Democratic President seems unable to do anything. Then Reagan came along, times got good and the US started re-asserting itself again militarily for the first time since Vietnam. Putting aside how much of that is true vs myth, the bottom line is people from their late 50's to their 70's seem really caught up in this and resist all the changes that have occured since (gay marriage being a prominent example). There's also an odd need to find another enemy on a par with the old Soviet Union.
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You really pound this theme of older voters, but they certainly are not the ones who made Garth Brooks popular. It's a sentiment which resonates well with the working class of all ages.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Kepler said:
FWIW, I hope you stay; your comments are valuable and you improve the overall tone.
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That really hasn't been true lately, but I appreciate the effort. I do still enjoy coming on here and reading what you and Priceless and Rover have to say, it's done a lot for me over the last couple of years to understand where you all are coming from and I've learned a thing or two. I like the sincerity of what you guys are saying. I'm just tired of the nature of politics in general, and the stupid arguments I keep getting from certain people in RL, and I'm tempted to tune out of politics altogether.
leswp1 said:
I don't understand how the GOP attracts the poor working class non-fundamentalist voter.
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Lynah's right, the people you're wondering about think Horatio Alger was writing straight nonfiction reporting. They're pretty sure they'll eventually make it, and want to keep a consistent philosophy with regards to their family fortune. I think for almost everyone, natural optimism is such that even extreme poverty feels like a temporary hurdle to overcome. You've read Glass Castle? I think the dad in that book represents a whole class of Americans.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Or, to quote the West Wing

It doesn't matter if most voters don't benefit. They all believe that someday they will. That's the problem with the American dream. It makes everyone concerned for the day they're gonna be rich.
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Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

LynahFan said:
You really pound this theme of older voters, but they certainly are not the ones who made Garth Brooks popular. It's a sentiment which resonates well with the working class of all ages.
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Think about it though: A working class voter 70 years ago would remember FDR, and talk about how great it was that he cared about the poor. They tend to instill that somewhat in their offspring. Now fast forward 40 years. That same working class voters is remembering years of decline vs getting America moving again and kickin' those Commie's butts. If you've been hearing that every day for 30 years it might be affecting your voting patterns as you take it for granted even if you were a bit young during that era.
So yes, age is crucial to the modern electorate. The GOP ascendency coincided with Boomers becoming the dominant political demographic. The GOP descent is coinciding with Millennials becoming the dominant demographic. Obviously its not as simple as that, but consider this. Obama won the under 45 vote last time and lost the over 45 vote, yet he won the election by 7%. Can you imagine that happening in years past?
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Rover said:
Obama won the under 45 vote last time and lost the over 45 vote, yet he won the election by 7%. Can you imagine that happening in years past?
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I've read this four times now and each time something seems wrong.

I would imagine the impact of over 45 voters has never been higher, as the demographic tree gets straighter and straighter (and people live longer). So if the data are true, I think what probably happened was the over 45 vote was a close loss while he blew away the under 45 vote.

There are young fundamentalists (I work with them), and they all vote, but I would guess that the split between young and old voters grows directly with the proportion of how important "social issues" are valued in the election.

We've had a string of weird elections in which (in addition to foreign policy and terrorism), liberals have voted pocketbook while conservatives have voted the 3 G's. I can't remember another time when the issues considered vital by each side were so asymmetric. I thought this time around was going to be a straight economy election, but given how much things have skewed the last few months, I don't know anymore. Not only does the GOP need to shift the ground to social issues because the economy is improving, but the rhetoric has gotten so scary and extreme that liberals are starting to rally to the defense of the social progress of the last few generations that we previously regarded as settled.

That's good to see, because it may provide the impetus for a genuine left wing voice on things like health care and financial regulation. Liberals reacted to the Reagan years a lot like conservatives reacted to FDR: lots of gnashing of teeth but little organized political opposition, and in fact at times overt collaboration. It took the right about 30 years to recover from the body blow and reassert themselves; hopefully the same thing is happening now on the left. The country has flown on one wing for way too long.

It would be so ironic if after decades of squawking about a fictitious left wing, the right's extreme rhetoric were one thing that triggered the return of an active and mobilized left.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

In election news, Silver projects Romney to win half of the ST delegates, which is boring and should teach Rick Santorum not to be on the ballot in VA, VT and ID. Newt continues to be Mittens' best friend, blunting any chance Frothy had to get really good looking numbers.


fivethirtyeight-030-supersummary-blog480.png



And God bless Ron Paul for accumulating delegates enough to cause a minor ruckus at the convention with plank proposals like "currency should be based on stone knives, sheep, and spices."
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

The GOP Base is coalescing around Romney and never coalesced around any of the candidates that reflect their true values. Like Rush Limbaugh for example.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Kepler said:
I've read this four times now and each time something seems wrong.

I would imagine the impact of over 45 voters has never been higher, as the demographic tree gets straighter and straighter (and people live longer). So if the data are true, I think what probably happened was the over 45 vote was a close loss while he blew away the under 45 vote.
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Kep, I found a graph that bears this out:

http://www.historycentral.com/elections/12008/exit/Age.html

Most disturbing for righties is that the % of voters under 50 is 57%. Then look at the margins in those categories. I don't expect Obama to achieve those same margins this time around, or even if he does the turnout might not be the same. The point is though, it doesn't necessarily have to be. New voters coming into the pool (those now aged 18-22) can take some of the place of those now 23-53 who decide not to vote.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Kepler said:
And God bless Ron Paul for accumulating delegates enough to cause a minor ruckus at the convention with plank proposals like "currency should be based on stone knives, sheep, and spices."
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He's working on a road to the port so he can get 2:1 for wood.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Rover said:
Kep, I found a graph that bears this out:

http://www.historycentral.com/elections/12008/exit/Age.html

Most disturbing for righties is that the % of voters under 50 is 57%. Then look at the margins in those categories. I don't expect Obama to achieve those same margins this time around, or even if he does the turnout might not be the same. The point is though, it doesn't necessarily have to be. New voters coming into the pool (those now aged 18-22) can take some of the place of those now 23-53 who decide not to vote.
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I don't think we'll be able to judge turnout until Fall. Right now it feels like it should be down for Obama cuz thrill is gone, baby, and down for Romney because for God's sake it's Romney. But once the parties bring their full cannon into play and we're browbeat that this is The Most Important Election In Fifty Years (same as every election), I assume the numbers will inch back up to where they usually are.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

ScoobyDoo said:
The GOP Base is coalescing around Romney and never coalesced around any of the candidates that reflect their true values. Like Rush Limbaugh for example.
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aaaaaaand what does that tell you about what you perceive to be "their true values", class? (be careful now)
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

geezer said:
aaaaaaand what does that tell you about what you perceive to be "their true values", class? (be careful now)
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That their "true values" are simply to beat Obama, no matter what their nominee proposes, says, or believes.

c.f. Kerry, J. (D) 2004
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

geezer said:
aaaaaaand what does that tell you about what you perceive to be "their true values", class? (be careful now)
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That they are incredibly negotiable, not nearly as written in stone as they would like us to believe.
 
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