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2012 Elections in 3-D!

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Bob Gray said:
Don't follow that first one.

I have no reason to think Santorum was talking about the Pope. But I'm sure people will sling mud at him any way they can, including attacks on his Catholic faith.

Oh, and Mt. Washington isn't really that high.
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I have to admit my first thought was the Pope too- not that he wasn't going to follow him but rather that he had said he would so I was wondering who qualified as a few elite people. Was that the 'Elite' people in DC, the people who are rich, the new Elite (translated into anyone stupid enough to get themselves highly educated and therefore too smart to be able to figure out what 'real people need'- this attitude really baffles me!)
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

leswp1 said:
Also they had early voting. Lots of people voted before the actual day. I have mixed feelings about that. What if you vote and then hear the guy/gal did say something really objectionable.

Anyone else wondering where Romney is going to keep getting cash from? He is bleeding cash to win this stuff and it is all negative. How is he going to be able to afford that type of spending through the general election. Until he poured the cash on telling everyone how awful X was he was behind in IA, FLA, NH, MI etc. How does he keep that up? There are a lot of seemingly luke warm people, not huge numbers of rabid supporters, in his corner.

ANyone know when the last time a party was this divided regarding what they wanted? I don'e ever remember anyone winning with support in the 20-30 % range but then I guess I never paid that much attention.
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My wife and I voted early. We waited until a handful of days before election day, just to give enough time for our ballots to get in. Thing is, something that comes up within a day or two of the election, half the time you don't know if it's just last minute mud slinging that is accurate or not.

Obama was always going to have way more cash than any Rep candidate. This just makes that hill incrementally even steeper.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

leswp1 said:
and now back to your regularly scheduled bickering.....

What happens in the South with Santorum and Newt? I can't say I have paid much attn to the Confederacy.
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From Silver:

(in parens there has been no polling I have seen, so I'm guessing)

AK: (good question, Paul's libertarianism should play well here, Romney)
GA: Newt
ID: (fair number of Mormons but also lots of angry lower class whites, Romney but close)
MA: (Romney)
ND: (lots of ultra-religious voters, Santorum maybe?)
OH: Santorum
OK: Santorum
TN: Santorum
VT: (Romney)
VA: Romney

That should let the bloodsport carry on for awhile. Unless Newt has cut a deal with Romney to split the derps, he should drop out and give Frothy his brownshirts
 
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Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Kepler said:

From Silver:AK: (good question, Paul's libertarianism should play well here, Romney)
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AK is going to be FUN. It's red, but it is mostly the rugged individualist gubmint-hating bootstrappy red. Not really enough fundie-ism for Frothy, and I think Romney would come across as a shyster and too out of touch with them. AK tends to be really good at calling out people who are full of crap (just ask Joe Miller.) If Paul has a chance anywhere, this would be it. Also a big military presence, those folks tend to go for Paul. Obstacles are the state of AK might be sour on anyone Tea related after the Sarah Palin Amateur Hour, and lots of voting Alaska Natives who rely on government programs and might not like Paul for that reason.

ID has some similarities to AK as I understand it. He might have a chance there too.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Nate Silver's analysis looks about right. I do wonder if Santorum goes for the knockout vs Newtie and makes a play for Georgia.

Funny how the minute the press exposes the so called independently minded Ron Paul as working in cahoots with Romney, he goes up with a negative ad blasting all three of his rivals for once. Can you say FRAUD?

Lastly, the only thing keeping Romney in the lead is his money. The less he has, the worse time he'll have holding on. Once has to wonder what would become of him if he ever had to face an ad campaign against him as costly as the ones he's been running against his rivals? No matter, because he's going to be on the opposite end of that dynamic if he reaches the general election.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Bob Gray said:
Don't follow that first one.
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When reacting to the JFK speech about the separation of church and state where he says religion need not exclude people from public service, Frothy misinterpreted it (imagine my shock) and thought it was saying the exact opposite - that people of faith should be excluded from public service. He then told his crowd that he threw up when he heard that. He has since said that was a mistake on his part and he totally misunderstood. That's probably why he lost the primary yesterday - he actually admitted he was wrong and apologized. What a wimp!

I have no reason to think Santorum was talking about the Pope. But I'm sure people will sling mud at him any way they can, including attacks on his Catholic faith.

Oh, and Mt. Washington isn't really that high.
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Les has already explained the pope. Catholics really need to stop with the persecution thing. It's getting old.

Mt. Washington is the highest mountain east of the Mississippi. Everyone knows Elites hang out in the northeast :p
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Priceless said:
When reacting to the JFK speech about the separation of church and state where he says religion need not exclude people from public service, Frothy misinterpreted it (imagine my shock) and thought it was saying the exact opposite - that people of faith should be excluded from public service. He then told his crowd that he threw up when he heard that. He has since said that was a mistake on his part and he totally misunderstood. That's probably why he lost the primary yesterday - he actually admitted he was wrong and apologized. What a wimp!


Les has already explained the pope. Catholics really need to stop with the persecution thing. It's getting old.

Mt. Washington is the highest mountain east of the Mississippi. Everyone knows Elites hang out in the northeast :p
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Crazy how admitting one has made mistakes or was wrong is seen as a sign of weakness. This certainly is one of the more interesting primaries in a long time.

True. I haven't seen many elites during my hikes in the Superstition Mountains out here. Haven't found the Lost Dutchman's gold either.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

AMC said:
Mike Michaud jumping into that Maine Senate race: http://bangordailynews.com/2012/02/29/politics/mike-michaud-enters-senate-race/

I'm kinda "meh" on Michaud. I like Pingree better, but will concede Michaud probably is a better general election candidate in the Second District. Either one probably rolls unless Cutler gets involved.

More exciting news from that article? Emily Cain running for House in the 2nd district!
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Michaud might be a little too conservative for southern Maine, but unless Chellie gets into the race, I think he's a shoo-in for the nomination and the general election. One Republican name I've seen is Steve Abbott. Would be just wonderful to see our esteemed AD quit just after taking the job. Hopefully he'll realize it's a fools errand to get in the race and stay in Orono.

I am really excited to see that Emily Cain is running for the House. From everything I've heard of her she seems like a great choice.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Kepler said:

From Silver:

(in parens there has been no polling I have seen, so I'm guessing)

AK: (good question, Paul's libertarianism should play well here, Romney)
GA: Newt
ID: (fair number of Mormons but also lots of angry lower class whites, Romney but close)
MA: (Romney)
ND: (lots of ultra-religious voters, Santorum maybe?)
OH: Santorum
OK: Santorum
TN: Santorum
VT: (Romney)
VA: Romney

That should let the bloodsport carry on for awhile. Unless Newt has cut a deal with Romney to split the derps, he should drop out and give Frothy his brownshirts
Click to expand...

Interesting to see that VA, GA and TN have such huge differences in polling results.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Priceless said:
When reacting to the JFK speech about the separation of church and state where he says religion need not exclude people from public service, Frothy misinterpreted it (imagine my shock) and thought it was saying the exact opposite - that people of faith should be excluded from public service. He then told his crowd that he threw up when he heard that. He has since said that was a mistake on his part and he totally misunderstood. That's probably why he lost the primary yesterday - he actually admitted he was wrong and apologized. What a wimp!
Click to expand...

You actually believe that? I don't believe for one second that he misinterpreted that speech. This is classic "politician trying it one way and it didn't work so he now he wants it the other way" talk.

He knew exactly what he was doing the whole time.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

ScoobyDoo said:
You actually believe that? I don't believe for one second that he misinterpreted that speech. This is classic "politician trying it one way and it didn't work so he now he wants it the other way" talk.

He knew exactly what he was doing the whole time.
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I don't believe he actually misunderstood JFK's speech, I believe it was willful cognitive dissonance on his part to try to whip his crowd into a frenzy and he didn't expect to get called on the carpet for it. When he was, his only choice was to say he misunderstood the speech. Saying "I knew what he was saying, but I wanted to pump up my supporters so I totally changed the meaning of his speech" wouldn't really fly.

It is amazing that his apologizing for screwing up can be used against him. But at the last debate he got jeered for having the nerve to explain his support for Magic Bullet Boy by saying that the White House (read: St. George and St. Dick) wanted Senator Specter to win the nomination over Toomey and he "took one for the team." It used to be that compromise and sacrifice was considered a positive characteristic for a politician...now it is a source of derision.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Priceless said:
It used to be that compromise and sacrifice was considered a positive characteristic for a politician...now it is a source of derision.
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Santorum was right to support Spector because it got the Republicans and GW Bush the Supremes that they wanted. He was speaking the truth there. But, in today's conservative landscape compromise of any sort is unacceptable.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Priceless said:
Michaud might be a little too conservative for southern Maine, but unless Chellie gets into the race, I think he's a shoo-in for the nomination and the general election. One Republican name I've seen is Steve Abbott. Would be just wonderful to see our esteemed AD quit just after taking the job. Hopefully he'll realize it's a fools errand to get in the race and stay in Orono.

I am really excited to see that Emily Cain is running for the House. From everything I've heard of her she seems like a great choice.
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Michaud, Pingree and Baldacci have all taken out papers for Senate. Who the heck is advising Baldacci on this one? What terrifies me is that he probably still has the machine geared up enough to turn out the vote for him in a primary, but I'd be shocked if he could clear 20% in a general election.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

AMC said:
Michaud, Pingree and Baldacci have all taken out papers for Senate. Who the heck is advising Baldacci on this one? What terrifies me is that he probably still has the machine geared up enough to turn out the vote for him in a primary, but I'd be shocked if he could clear 20% in a general election.
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Doesn't everybody who's even considering have to take out papers now to start collecting signatures given the short timeframe to qualify for the ballot? I'm wondering if all 3 end up making the race.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Kepler said:
Not really, they are very different places, plus Newt is from GA and Newt did not make the ballot in VA.
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Most definitely. Think of how backward SW Virginia is - and then remember that all of TN is south and west of THAT! NoVa really drags the centroid of state politics far to the left.
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

I don't get the cluelessness of Romney's campaign people:


In Wednesday afternoon press call, Romney surrogates hammer Santorum for robo-calling Democrats in Michigan, call for him to return a portion of his Wolverine State delegates.

Mike Turner: "Rick Santorum cheated but he couldn't cheat enough to win....He cheated by asking people who would never vote for him for president by getting them to vote in the Republican primary."

John H. Sununu: "If I may borrow a phrase from Santorum, what he did makes me feel like throwing up, and unlike Santorum, I'm not going to regret what I just did."

Bay Buchanan: "Rick Santorum didn't take this action until he saw that Republican voters were about to reject him."



Read more: http://thepage.time.com/2012/02/29/no-letting-up-2/#ixzz1noGGX4I2

Look, um Mittens & crew, you already won the Michigan primary, BUT you need Santorum's voters come election time. Exactly what point does it serve blasting the guy a day after that race is over??? Who's running his campaign, high school kids?
 
Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

I think R-money is still really worried about locking up the nomination, and he's trying to cleave away some of Santorum's redneck support. Though this play seems backward-looking it's really forward-looking towards the next primaries.

But I think you're right the better message is to get "Romney sweep!" into every water-carrying media outlet's lede. Amazingly, Romney has a money problem -- he outspent his opponents 10:1 early on and now it's down to 2:1, and all of his well-heeled supporters have maxed out their personal contributions. He'll never actually run out of money, of course, with the SuperPacs and his own fortune, but there are a million little GOP flashbulbs going off with the "if he buys the nomination that doesn't help us, because Obama won't be outspent" message. That not only makes him look like a dead duck, but far worse for the RNC it's code for "every dollar Mitt spends driving another GOP candidate's negatives hurts us downticket in the fall."

Right now the DCCC's best friend is the Romney campaign.
 
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