2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Ladies and Gentlemen: Introducing the only rightly who's actually happy with the Romney campaign! I guess Barnum was right. There's one born every minute.

Do you play poker? Not that Texas Hold'Em nonsense, "real" poker....there was a term called "sand-bagging" that might apply.....

We'll wait and see, eh? Meanwhile I am still ahead on my Iowa Electronic Futures Market purchase, so it's not just bloviating, there's real money on the line. No one here has yet put real dollars behind Obama, eh?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Intrade has Rubio as the favorite for the VP nomination with Portman and Christie as 2nd and 3rd. I think there's about zero chance Christie makes it. A ticket with 'moderates' from Mass and NJ would just not make for a balanced ticket.

Intrade also has BO at 60% likely to win at this point.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Intrade has Rubio as the favorite for the VP nomination with Portman and Christie as 2nd and 3rd. I think there's about zero chance Christie makes it. A ticket with 'moderates' from Mass and NJ would just not make for a balanced ticket.

Intrade also has BO at 60% likely to win at this point.

People don't care if its a balanced ticket. See Al Gore and Clinton. And Vice Presidential nominees don't carry their state for their candidates very well. All that matters is whether his number two could be a credible President or not.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

People don't care if its a balanced ticket. See Al Gore and Clinton. And Vice Presidential nominees don't carry their state for their candidates very well. All that matters is whether his number two could be a credible President or not.

I agree with this. Regional balance used to be important because people identified very strongly with their state. Now people have become so ideological tribal the derpa-derps in Mississippi would rather see a born again from Alaska than a moderate from Alabama.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, BTW, and just one more reason why the states are atavistic.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Barring a double dip recession (which the conservatives have brought to England)

Obama should really hammer this point home. The Brits chose austerity and gave themselves a double dip recession. Obama went with stimulus and we're seeing a slow but steady recovery. Not only will this help frame this election's debate but it should put to rest for a long time that transparent revisionist fiction the right had been peddling that stimulus prolongs a depression.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Obama should really hammer this point home. The Brits chose austerity and gave themselves a double dip recession. Obama went with stimulus and we're seeing a slow but steady recovery. Not only will this help frame this election's debate but it should put to rest for a long time that transparent revisionist fiction the right had been peddling that stimulus prolongs a depression.

No question there are some long term structural challenges with the US in terms of international jobs mobility and large differences in the cost for performance of labor between countries.

Having said that, US businesses are happy. Profits are way up, and the stock market is over pre crisis levels and double what it was when Obama came to office. From all indications, the stimulus and backstopping financial/auto industries was right on the money.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

A surprisingly good analysis here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...ttack-obama-romney-and-the-electoral-college/

Like a lot of older white wealthy male pundits, I think Sabato is slightly favoring Romney perhaps because he "looks the part" of a President in his mind, but overall an evenhanded analysis. To sum up he has Obama at this point in time @ 247 electoral votes with OH, NV, CO, IA, NH, FL, and VA as the swing states. Fair enough, although it should be said that Obama is leading in the latest polling in OH, VA, NH, and FL. I haven't seen anything lately on IA, CO, and NV.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Obama should really hammer this point home. The Brits chose austerity and gave themselves a double dip recession. Obama went with stimulus and we're seeing a slow but steady recovery. Not only will this help frame this election's debate but it should put to rest for a long time that transparent revisionist fiction the right had been peddling that stimulus prolongs a depression.

Yup. The public doesn't want to pay for its government programs, tax cuts, etc. the way England now is, so it's a good re-election strategy. Bad for our nation long term as is sinks further into indebtedness, but good short-term for Obama.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Yup. The public doesn't want to pay for its government programs, tax cuts, etc. the way England now is, so it's a good re-election strategy. Bad for our nation long term as is sinks further into indebtedness, but good short-term for Obama.

Debt is bad long term, but debt during an economic downturn in order to prime the pump works as long as it's well-directed and reasonable.

The thing that is bad for the country long term is running a debt during good times. That's the time when we should be aggressively paying down our debt.

 

[MinnFan]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Debt is bad long term, but debt during an economic downturn in order to prime the pump works as long as it's well-directed and reasonable.

The thing that is bad for the country long term is running a debt during good times. That's the time when we should be aggressively paying down our debt.

Unfortunately the gov't doesn't do well-directed and reasonable. We just get more debt

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Debt is bad long term, but debt during an economic downturn in order to prime the pump works as long as it's well-directed and reasonable.

The thing that is bad for the country long term is running a debt during good times. That's the time when we should be aggressively paying down our debt.

Nice theory. Never seen it practiced.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Unfortunately the gov't doesn't do well-directed and reasonable. We just get more debt

This. Or maybe some people consider things like Cash for Clunkers to be well directed and responsible?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Unfortunately the gov't doesn't do well-directed and reasonable. We just get more debt

I'd say the government actually did do well-directed and reasonable this time around, it's just fashionable to slam everything the government does because that's the easy laugh line.

The thing government does VERY poorly is planning for bad times during good times, and for obvious reasons: the opportunistic, irresponsible voice that says "don't you dare touch the military (or social security, or Medicare)" or "don't raise taxes" has a huge advantage in the polling place.

I wonder if a mechanism where it took a super-majority to raise spending or lower taxes when the country was in debt, and vice-versa when it was in surplus, would work?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Nice theory. Never seen it practiced.

Well, we haven't had constantly ascending debt for our entire history, so there have definitely been times when we've moved in the right direction (unless all deficit reduction has always been a shell game moving debits out on the timeline -- which is theoretically possible but mathematically unlikely).

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Well, we haven't had constantly ascending debt for our entire history, so there have definitely been times when we've moved in the right direction (unless all deficit reduction has always been a shell game moving debits out on the timeline -- which is theoretically possible but mathematically unlikely).

I'm not sure the small deficits that existed through most of U.S. history and their small fluctuations remotely compare to the current staggeringly large deficit. And the generally fiscally responsible people who ran government back then don't remotely match today's current crop of "spend 'til the country drops" politicians. And yes, there are plenty of shell games being played by the feds.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I'm not sure the small deficits that existed through most of U.S. history and their small fluctuations remotely compare to the current staggeringly large deficit. And the generally fiscally responsible people who ran government back then don't remotely match today's current crop of "spend 'til the country drops" politicians. And yes, there are plenty of shell games being played by the feds.

Public officials didn't spend less in the 18th and 19th century because of their respect for the public purse, they spent less because the electorate had smaller demands on government.

For the hundredth time, it isn't our reps, it's us. Every time somebody launches a screed about how the gol'druned gubbmint are spendaholics, they're completely missing the point -- we are the spendaholics, and we are the tax scofflaws.

Having said that, the worst political action we ever undertook to exacerbate the problem was to decouple spending from tax rates. Cons always suggest a balanced budget amendment where spending can't rise above tax revenue. I suggest taking it from the opposite side: force taxes up to match spending. You'd see a reduction in spending then, I guarantee it, but you'd also see the post-1980's distortion of the tax structure phased out as well, and that's why it will never happen.

 

[MinnFan]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Public officials didn't spend less in the 18th and 19th century because of their respect for the public purse, they spent less because the electorate had smaller demands on government.

I would say that it was due more to the fact that the constitutional chains on gov't hadn't been broken yet.

Having said that, the worst political action we ever undertook to exacerbate the problem was to decouple spending from tax rates. Cons always suggest a balanced budget amendment where spending can't rise above tax revenue. I suggest taking it from the opposite side: force taxes up to match spending. You'd see a reduction in spending then, I guarantee it, but you'd also see the post-1980's distortion of the tax structure phased out as well, and that's why it will never happen.

The only way that would work is if you started with a flat tax. If everyone doesn't have skin in the game then of course they are going to be willing to raise the other guy's taxes.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The only way that would work is if you started with a flat tax. If everyone doesn't have skin in the game then of course they are going to be willing to raise the other guy's taxes.

It doesn't have to be a flat tax for everybody to have skin in the game. You could have, for example, multiple brackets {5%, 10%, etc}, always hold the tax rates the same, and then slide the income thresholds back and forth until you had balance.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I would say that it was due more to the fact that the constitutional chains on gov't hadn't been broken yet.

Human systems adapt. The constitutional chains are redefined with every generation, they haven't broken. The great thing about our system is if enough people feel as you do that the government is overstepping its bounds you will become the next majority and then your interpretation of the constitution will be ascendant for awhile.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I think we may have seen an example in the 1980s, when rampant spending ballooned the debt by 355%. The thing is, the US economy also grew. In the 1990s, debt and gdp kept in pace with one another. In the 2000s, we've seen a major return of deficit spending, but no major spike in gdp.

So, I guess one question would be whether to compare the deficit spending of the 1980s to that of the 00s. The Democratic argument, I guess, is that not all deficit spending is created equally with respect to pump priming. They may loathe Ronnie Ray-gun, but at least the guy built stuff (keeping actual combat expenditures low) with his deficits. G.W. cut taxes and deficit-spent on Afghanistan and Iraq, plus a few social programs that fiscally conservative hawks still haven't forgiven him for.

Sure, the debt figures below are escalating faster than ever, now.

Reagan era: Really set the standard, but kept the peace and got the economy going
Clinton era: In 2000, debt/gdp was only 1% higher than it was in 1990, which seems like a miracle. But GOP critics are right that it was a miracle built in part on a bubble. Not a bad decade, but probably not as good as claimed.
Bush jr: Hard to describe this decade as anything other than a fiscal disaster.

debt / gdp (ratio) trillions nominal dollars (BEA numbers)

1980 0.9/2.8 (32%)
1985 1.8/4.2 (43%)
1990 3.2/5.8 (55%)
(debt up 355%, GDP up 207%)

1995 5.0/7.4 (68%)
2000 5.8/10.3 (56%)
(debt up 181%, GDP up 178%)

2005 7.9/12.6 (63%)
2009 11.9/13.9 (86%)
2010 13.6/14.5 (94%)
(debt up 234%, GDP up 141%)