2012 D1 BCS thread

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

Their teams having cream puff schedules: fact...especially when you look at OOC skeds

SEC not being the best conference: just my opinion...I'd say the Big XII is the best top-to-bottom conference, as evidenced by Saturday night's events, amongst others.

I can get on board with the SEC having sub-par out of conference scheduling. However, only a fool would argue that the SEC is not the best conference in college football.

Looking at this against the Big XII, top to bottom...
Alabama vs. Kansas St. - Advantage SEC
Georgia vs. Oklahoma - Toss Up
Florida vs. Texas - Advantage SEC
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma St. - Advantage SEC
LSU vs. Texas Tech - Advantage SEC
Texas A&M vs. TCU - Advantage SEC
Vanderbilt vs. Iowa State - Toss Up
Miss. St. vs. West Virginia - Advantage Big XII
Missouri vs. Baylor - Advantage Big XII
Ole Miss/Auburn/Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky vs. Kansas - Advantage SEC

I got 6-2-2, and to be honest I would bet on the SEC team in both of the Toss Up games. I'm curious to see who you would give advantages to.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

I can get on board with the SEC having sub-par out of conference scheduling. However, only a fool would argue that the SEC is not the best conference in college football.

Looking at this against the Big XII, top to bottom...
Alabama vs. Kansas St. - Advantage SEC....

kstate beat a&m last year, a&m beat bama this year.

 

[IrishWildcat]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

I can get on board with the SEC having sub-par out of conference scheduling. However, only a fool would argue that the SEC is not the best conference in college football.

Looking at this against the Big XII, top to bottom...
Alabama vs. Kansas St. - Advantage SEC
Georgia vs. Oklahoma - Toss Up
Florida vs. Texas - Advantage SEC
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma St. - Advantage SEC
LSU vs. Texas Tech - Advantage SEC
Texas A&M vs. TCU - Advantage SEC
Vanderbilt vs. Iowa State - Toss Up
Miss. St. vs. West Virginia - Advantage Big XII
Missouri vs. Baylor - Advantage Big XII
Ole Miss/Auburn/Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky vs. Kansas - Advantage SEC

I got 6-2-2, and to be honest I would bet on the SEC team in both of the Toss Up games. I'm curious to see who you would give advantages to.

Including Kansas isn't fair...hell, UNH could beat them. But, I guess since I said "top-to-bottom," you have to include the absolute bottom. However, I'd say Kansas might have a chance against Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Auburn.

I'd say, neutral site, Florida/Texas is a toss up. As is A&M/TCU.

I look at the "top-to-bottom" argument in the sense that the bottom of the conference has a chance at beating the top of the conference. Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky would get slaughtered against the top 3 (I hope Auburn proves me wrong). On the flip side, Baylor, WVU, and Iowa State stand a chance against K-State, OU, and Texas (again, I refuse to include Kansas...they're historically bad)

 

[JF_Gophers]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

So out of the blue (to me) Maryland and Rutgers could be on the verge of joining the Big Ten (possibly this week)?

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

kstate beat a&m last year, a&m beat bama this year.

The Ivy League dominated college football 100 years ago.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

Including Kansas isn't fair...hell, UNH could beat them. But, I guess since I said "top-to-bottom," you have to include the absolute bottom. However, I'd say Kansas might have a chance against Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe Auburn.

I'd say, neutral site, Florida/Texas is a toss up. As is A&M/TCU.

I look at the "top-to-bottom" argument in the sense that the bottom of the conference has a chance at beating the top of the conference. Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky would get slaughtered against the top 3 (I hope Auburn proves me wrong). On the flip side, Baylor, WVU, and Iowa State stand a chance against K-State, OU, and Texas (again, I refuse to include Kansas...they're historically bad)

So really your argument is that the Big XII is more competitive than the SEC...not that the Big XII is a better conference? I could get on board with that. The SEC definitely has its top half and bottom half, and the two halves really aren't all that close...this year being particularly true.

 

[HumRsky]

So out of the blue (to me) Maryland and Rutgers could be on the verge of joining the Big Ten (possibly this week)?

It was out of the blue to me too when I first read about it a couple days ago. It has gotta be due to their locations in major metro areas that likely have a lot of Big Ten alums since neither has an attractive football program and only Maryland has a semi-attractive Men's bball program. On the academic side, they are both AAU schools. One other thing that crossed my mind is that they would bring the number of B1G men's lacrosse teams to 5, so only one more would be needed to create a BTLC and thus adding a bunch of Spring programming to The Network that would draw higher ratings than softball and track & field and maybe even baseball.

 

[joecct]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

It was out of the blue to me too when I first read about it a couple days ago. It has gotta be due to their locations in major metro areas that likely have a lot of Big Ten alums since neither has an attractive football program and only Maryland has a semi-attractive Men's bball program. On the academic side, they are both AAU schools. One other thing that crossed my mind is that they would bring the number of B1G men's lacrosse teams to 5, so only one more would be needed to create a BTLC and thus adding a bunch of Spring programming to The Network that would draw higher ratings than softball and track & field and maybe even baseball.

$50 million to leave the All Cash Conference. For a program that just cut a bunch of sports due to budgetary reasons, that may be a killer.

 

[MavHockey14]

The University of Iowa is quite terrible at this sport of football.

Don't rub it in. This has been the worst year since 2000.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

I'm by no means an SEC hater. It is the best college football conference (at least the top half) by far. I just completely disagree with your percentages, and your apparent bias.

The only one of my percentages that could have shown a pro-SEC bias is the Georgia-Georgia Tech game, as that's the only one on that slate that you disagreed with and is the SEC vs. someone else. Georgia is 10-1 in their last 11 meetings, including wins over Tech when Georgia had teams that finished 6-7, 8-5, 9-4, and 10-4. I think estimating that the 2012 Georgia team (10-1) takes 9 of 10 games from the 2012 Georgia Tech team (6-5, with losses to Middle Tennessee, Miami, and BYU and only 2 wins over teams with winning records, UNC and Duke) is fairly reasonable, rivalry game or not.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

Barkley out with a bum shoulder vs. Notre Dame.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

The only one of my percentages that could have shown a pro-SEC bias is the Georgia-Georgia Tech game, as that's the only one on that slate that you disagreed with and is the SEC vs. someone else. Georgia is 10-1 in their last 11 meetings, including wins over Tech when Georgia had teams that finished 6-7, 8-5, 9-4, and 10-4. I think estimating that the 2012 Georgia team (10-1) takes 9 of 10 games from the 2012 Georgia Tech team (6-5, with losses to Middle Tennessee, Miami, and BYU and only 2 wins over teams with winning records, UNC and Duke) is fairly reasonable, rivalry game or not.

These games are always close. If you look at the rivalry, you'll see that while Georgia has had the advantage recently, in Athens, Tech is far more competitive. In their last 7 meetings in Athens, Tech has won 3 of the 7, and 5 of the 7 have been decided by 1 score (Tech won once 27-15 (2000), UGA won once 51-7 (2002)). Also, Georgia Tech has played considerably better the last half of the year (4-1 after starting 2-4). I'm not saying that Tech is going to win this game. I'd probably take Georgia by a TD. However, in a 1-game scenario, rivalry game, where history tells us that the game is going to be close, and recent trends show that both Tech and Georgia are playing good football, no way would any neutral observer put it at 90/10 Georgia. If you want to ignore that, and blindly follow your bias, go for it. IMO, it is foolish.

If we knew each other, I would gladly accept a wager where I put $10 into a pot, and you put $90 in, and if Tech won, I'd walk away with $100, and if UGA won, You'd get the $100.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

in Athens, Tech is far more competitive. In their last 7 meetings in Athens, Tech has won 3 of the 7

They're also 3 for the last 10 in Athens, and 2 of those wins were more than 10 years ago ('98, '00).

If we knew each other, I would gladly accept a wager where I put $10 into a pot, and you put $90 in, and if Tech won, I'd walk away with $100, and if UGA won, You'd get the $100.

I've never bet on a sporting event in my life, and I certainly don't feel strongly enough about this one to start now.

Aside: I'm a risk-averse personality type, so I wouldn't even take 9:1 odds on a single throw of a 10-sided die that I knew to be fair. I'd be much more likely to take a bet where we both put up $50, throw the die 10 times, and you win if your number comes up more than once. In the end, of course, those would have the same expected value for the outcomes, but there's just something about putting money on a single trial of anything that creeps me out - purely an emotional, non-logical response.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

They're also 3 for the last 10 in Athens, and 2 of those wins were more than 10 years ago ('98, '00).

We could play this game all day long. For example, Tech is 50% in the last 5 years against Georgia at Athens.

I've never bet on a sporting event in my life, and I certainly don't feel strongly enough about this one to start now.

Aside: I'm a risk-averse personality type, so I wouldn't even take 9:1 odds on a single throw of a 10-sided die that I knew to be fair. I'd be much more likely to take a bet where we both put up $50, throw the die 10 times, and you win if your number comes up more than once. In the end, of course, those would have the same expected value for the outcomes, but there's just something about putting money on a single trial of anything that creeps me out - purely an emotional, non-logical response.

If Georgia Tech plays well this Saturday, and Georgia does not, Tech will win. My point in this whole thing was I disagreed with the 90% number. I certainly feel that Georgia is the better team, and should win the game. I am just not willing to put that likelihood at 90%. I'd be far more comfortable with around a 60-65%. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree (not that it really matters anyway ), and just watch and see what craziness happens.

 

[IrishWildcat]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

If we knew each other, I would gladly accept a wager where I put $10 into a pot, and you put $90 in, and if Tech won, I'd walk away with $100, and if UGA won, You'd get the $100.

Of course you'd take that bet. Hell, even if I knew NOTHING about college football, I'd take that bet. If I lose, I'm out $10. If I win, I'm up $90.

That being said, Georgia for all intents and purposes SHOULD win this game.

The games ACTUALLY worth watching this weekend:

Combo of Nebraska-Iowa & Ohio St-Michigan (If Nebraska wins, they will most likely be going to Rose Bowl. Otherwise, Michigan gets the shot, unless Buckeyes spoil the show)

Florida-FSU (Actually back to what it was like in the 90's, when this game meant something)

Oklahoma-Oklahoma St. (OU win keeps their hopes alive for the Big XII title, though they'd need to root for UT the following week )

Combo of Oregon-Oregon St. and Stanford-UCLA (Depending on outcomes, the latter game would be a Pac-12 title game preview)

South Carolina-Clemson (Clemson still has an outside shot at making a BCS bowl. Good shot at a rivalry spoiler game)

I'll watch Auburn-Alabama out of morbid curiosity, and hoping against hope the Tigers pull off the upset of the century. Not because I'm afraid of the Irish playing Bama, because I think they could hold their own. I just think those trees deserve some retribution.

 

[pirate]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

Notre Dame: #1 in graduation rate and #1 in BCS. There were recent years in which ND fans wondered if the team could maintain its standards and even have a winning record much less be #1.

They too can blow their NC chance with a loss this weekend, I'm sure there will be a lot of people all over the country praying USC comes up big. But, they proved to themselves they can be a top 10 team and maintain the standards.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

The Ivy League dominated college football 100 years ago.

did i type 100 yrs ago?

last years teams had many of the same players on this years teams? no? certainly more than played 100 yrs ago had a chance to play this year...

when you only play your conference, then three d3 teams like wofford or north texas at home you have to draw at straws to compare.

playoffs should be conference winner makes the playoffs, that's the only way in. use a computer to seed so SEC champ gets mountain west, whatever. 8 teams in. play at bowl sites.

without a doubt it would be the most watched football (outside the super bowl) games of the year.

 

[French Rage]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

Combo of Oregon-Oregon St. and Stanford-UCLA (Depending on outcomes, the latter game would be a Pac-12 title game preview)

Stanford wins the North if they win or if Oregon loses too. If they win the North by winning this Satuday at UCLA, they then turn around and play UCLA six days later at Stanford.

Note to Pac-12 scheduling: have the inter-division games early in the season, or at least not on the last weekend of the year, or this stuff can happen.

 

[MavHockey14]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

To stir the pot...Happy Thanksgiving!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/21081960/doyel-sec-is-overrated

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 D1 BCS thread

To stir the pot...Happy Thanksgiving!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/21081960/doyel-sec-is-overrated

I actually agree with him to a certain extent, except that:

1) I would say that the SEC has cracked the "poll code" not the "computer code." Polls have Bama at 2, computers at 3 (3 = outside looking in), and the computers have Georgia at #6. The computers may be fooled, but the *voters* are fooled worse - they are the ones vaulting the SEC teams into the title game. At the end of the day, the polls are still 2/3 of the BCS rankings, and the way to stay high in the polls is not to lose, and the way not to lose is to schedule the creamiest puffs you can find. Perception is key.

2) I think he oversteps when he makes the definitive claim that the SEC *is* overrated. Given the absence of a statistically significant slate of games between top teams from the various conferences, I agree that we do not have the data to state "the SEC is the best conference this year." However, we also lack sufficient data to state that it is NOT the best conference - the lack of data cuts both ways. As usual, we're left waiting until the Bowl season to have enough meaningful non-conference games to even begin to start thinking about answering the question.

3) And that is a real shame. I really hope that as we move to a more playoff-y post season, teams will be able to adjust the calculus of the risk of losing and schedule more good non-conference games. In the BCS era, you have had to be #1 or #2 to even have a shot at the title, so there's just no profit in risking a loss in a non-conference game when you could have scheduled a creampuff instead. Throw in the fact that you can have all your creampuff games at home but would have to split "good" games 50-50, and it's completely obvious to me why the schedules are what they are, but understanding it doesn't mean that they don't suck - they definitely do.