Re: 2012-2013 North Dakota Hockey: Season Thread
A look at my preseason expectations, and how we are doing at the midpoint of the season...
1) A top 2 finish in the WCHA - I think this season really comes down to Minnesota and North Dakota fighting for the MacNaughton. The Gophers have the far easier schedule, so they certainly have the advantage (not to mention the lone series between the teams is at Mariucci). That being said, there is no reason this team should finish below second, and could very well win the MacNaughton one last time.
It looks like SCSU may sneak into the mix here as well, but at the midpoint, North Dakota has the best winning % in the conference. The schedule in the second half is a little more difficult with trips to Minnesota, Omaha, Denver, and Mankato (all currently top-half teams), but this team is playing well enough that a top 2 finish is very possible. IMO, this team can win 5 of 8 on the road, and get 6-7 out of 8 at home (CC, SCSU, Wisconsin, Bemidji), which would put them at 39-41 points. Since the WCHA switched to a 28 game league schedule in 1996-1997, 41 points has been good for a top 2 finish every season (and good enough to win the league 4 of the past 8 years). 39 has been good enough for a top 2 finish in each of the past 7 years (and good enough to win the league twice in that time span). The key series will likely be early in the 2nd half against Minnesota and SCSU. Take more than 4 points combined there, and North Dakota has a very good chance at hoisting the MacNaughton.
2) Make the Final Five Championship Game - Assuming this team gets a #1 or #2 seed, they should have no issues with getting to the Final Five and winning a game. I would love to see this squad four-peat, and I think they actually will. That being said, winning the Final Five is probably a bit too much to expect from any team, so I will leave it at playing for the title.
Obviously, this is still a long ways away, and difficult to really make a good prediction. However, if UND can get one of the top two seeds, they
should be able to make it to the Final Five title game.
3) Make the NCAA Tournament - This is almost a no-brainer, but shouldn't be overlooked. This team is talented, and they should be able to garner a Top seed if they play up to expectations.
Subpar results in non-conference play may bar this squad from getting a #1 seed. However, UND is currently a solid #2 seed, and with a strong second half of the season, they should be able to at least maintain that position. If the cards fall right, they may be able to get a top seed. I haven't done much analysis of the PWR just yet, but I would imagine if North Dakota went on a good run and went something along the lines of 19-3 or 18-4, it may be enough to get a #1 seed. After UND got a #1 seed last year, I'll never say never until it's mathematically impossible.
4) Frozen Four Appearance - This is a bit of a stretch for an expectation because the NCAA Tournament is so unpredictable, but I think North Dakota has the talent and ability to make it back to the Frozen Four this season. Anything less would be somewhat of a disappointment, so I threw it in the expectations category.
I still see this as an expectation. North Dakota struggled at times early in the season, but they have really played well over the last 3-4 weeks. They will need to continue to improve if they want to make some noise in the NCAAs, but that being said, a 10-5-3 start is pretty good given our recent history. Consequently, I still say that not making the Frozen Four would be somewhat of a disappointment.
5) 25-28 wins - Our OOC schedule is a little more difficult this year (2 up in Alaska, BU, @ Notre Dame, Holy Cross), but we should be able to win 5 of those games. Throw in that in the WCHA 1st or 2nd place usually is somewhere around 34-40 points (equivalent to 17-20 wins). Throw in a first round WCHA win and a win at the Final Five, and that gets us to 25-28 wins.
We're 10-5-3...not too bad for this squad. There are 18 more regular season games, a first round WCHA series, potentially 3 Final Five games, and up to 4 possible NCAA Tournament games. That means we have anywhere from 20-28 games remaining on the season. As stated above, I think this squad wins 11-12 of our remaining regular season conference games. Add to that 2 wins over Holy Cross (who is very capable of pushing UND and winning a game), a first round WCHA series win, and at least 1 win at the Final Five, that equals 16-17 more victories. If the squad also makes the frozen four, that would push that up to 18-19 victories. Basically, 25-28 wins is completely within the range that I think this team can accomplish.
So then, what equals exceeds expectations?
1) Winning the MacNaughton
2) Winning the Final Five
3) Winning the National Championship
4) 30+ wins
The MacNaughton is certainly reachable with 39-41 points, and nobody on this squad has ever lost a WCHA Final Five game, so that is certainly within the realm of possibility. The National Championship is possible, but a lot of that will come down to luck, hot goalies, health, and who is playing the best at the right time. North Dakota should at least be in the mix when it comes to March and hopefully April. As for the 30+ wins, that is certainly possible as well. If North Dakota accomplishes the first three goals to exceed expectations, they will likely win somewhere in the neighborhood of 31-33 games.
It has been a lot of fun to watch this team progress throughout the season. If Hakstol's track record continues, it should be very exciting to watch this team in the second half, win a lot of games, raise a couple of trophies, and maybe...just maybe win that elusive National Championship. However it shakes out, I'm sure we'll all have fun watching the games.
Anyway, how are everyone else's expectations coming along? Where do you see this team going in the second half?