Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread
Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread
I fully agree now that Mazzotta isn't going to make the 10. But I think Fortino is a lock to make 10, and the success of Cornell regardless of goalie if anything will strengthen the case for a Cornell D to be on the list. She's the No. 2 scoring D on the No. 1 defensive team in the country, and she's coming off a First Team All-American season -- if any D ever makes the Kaz Top 10 it's her.
I agree Jenner and Johnston are both top players, and Johnston was probably the most dominant player at 4 Nations, but I still think they'll just miss the Kaz cut.
If I had to project 10 now I'd go
Wisconsin: Knight, Duggan
Mercyhurst: Agosta, Bendus
BU: Philip-Poulin, Wakefield
Cornell: Fortino
UMD: Irwin
Minnesota: Raty
BC: Schaus
Also in contention:
Martin, UMD; Stack, BC; JLam, UND; Johnston, Jenner, Cornell
A few more thoughts: I don't think Schaus has had all that great a season, but she has the reputation and good stats, and I'd picked her over Stack in my projection mainly because at least 2 goalies have to make the top 10.
I think WCHA 4, Hockey East 3, CHA 2, ECAC 1 is about the right distribution of the 10. And Forward 7, Goalie 2, Defenseman 1 is a likely distribution there. Maybe it becomes Foward 6, and Goalie 3 with Martin getting in, again she has a great reputation and stats but her record isn't so great and she hasn't had as many starts as some of the other top contenders, or started every big game like some of the other contenders.
Great Info.
IMHO, the Kaz is about more than season points (its officially about much more than points obviously, but its not always voted that way). The kaz is about a number of characteristics both on and off the ice. On the ice, yes its about points, but its also about leadership, +/-, playing at both ends of the ice, and most importantly performing at a top level against top talent. my point in this post is exactly that. i've looked through the stats of the top 6 kaz watch offensive weapons mentioned in the above post (Wakefield and Fortino are only left out becaus ei didint have the time to compile their stats), and have compared their statistics in games against teams with .500 or better records. note, i disagree with a Freshman winning this prestigous award but i have included Philip-Poulin anyway.
i will say the obvious, that im a wisconsin fan, but the statistics below dont lie.
Wisco - 14 of 24 games (58%) have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
MHurst - 5 of 23 games (22%)have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
BU -11 of 23 games (48%)have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
UMD - 14 of 20 games (70%) have been played vs teams with .500 of better record
Duggan 14 games, 13G, 18A, 31pts, +30, 2.21ppg, +2.14 per game
Knight 14 games, 14G, 12A, 26pts, +25, 1.85ppg, +1.79 per game
Agosta 5 games, 3G, 4A, 7pts, -3, 1.40ppg, -0.60 per game
Bendus 5 games, 1G, 7A, 8pts, 3, 1.60ppg, +0.60 per game
Irwin 14 games, 8G, 12A, 20pts, +11, 1.43ppg, +0.78 per game
Philip-Poulin 11 games, 10G, 13A, 23pts, +11, 2.09ppg, +1.0 per game
Here are my conclusions:
Of the top 6 Kaz candidates there are clear trends as to who is playing at the top level against the best D1 Women's Hockey has to offer, and who is piling on points against the lower talent. As i mentioned above, while points are not the ONLY judging point for this award, i strongly believe that players who prove they can perform and succeed against the best talent are far close to "the Patty" than those who dont
based on the point list above,...
... The mercyhurst schedule does not provide
Agosta and
Bendus enough exposure to top talent, and in the 5 games that it has, they have not performed anywher near their overall season stats. Agosta's 1.40ppg is half of her full season 2.59ppg and her -0.60 +/- is a strong indicator of her lack of defensive focus in big games. Bendus missed the Wisc game so in 4 games vs teams of .500+ she has recorded only 1 goal and like Agosta her +/- is lacking. a significant percentage of their points are coming against bottom tier teams (SCSU, SLU, 'Cuse, Wayne, etc)
...
Irwin's 1.60 ppg is very close to her season ppg of 2.0 although her avg +/- in these games vs .500+ talent is on the low side at +0.78. She had great games against OSU (3G,3A,+4) and Minny (3G,1A,+2), but has struggled against ND, Bemidji, and Wisco (1G,7A,+5 in those 8 games).
...
Philip-Poulin has performed well in her 11 games vs .500+ teams. her 2.09 is higher than the season average of 2.0ppg which indicates she has brought her A game vs the best teams. This is further illustrated in her games vs ND (2G,1A,+4), and (1G,3A,E) vs BC. Her +/- has struggled against lower level teams like Princeton and Maine, but overall the numbers are solid
...
Knight's 1.85ppg against the top teams is only slightly below her season average of 2.12, and her +25 is over 60% of her season +/-. She has played well against the top teams wisconsin has faced., including 2G,2A,+3 nights against both Northeastern and Mhurst in back to back nights. i know i don't need to school anyone on Hilary's offensive prowess, but these numbers indicate she is piling up her stats against top talent, and not the bottom tier.
...
Duggan looks to shine the best of the group in big games according to these numbers. her 31 points is good for 2.21ppg, slightly higher than her season average of 2.08ppg. she has also averaged a +2.14 in games vs team .500 or better. This is by far the highest in the group. so too is her stat that 67% of her +/- comes against .500 or better teams. not only has Duggan proved herself at the offensive end, but with the highest avg +/- it is clear she is living up to her reputation as the best 2 way player in the world.
again, i did not mean to leave out Wakefield and Fortino, but did not have the time to add their stats. do what you wish with these statistics. i believe it further illustrates the separation of overall talent in this kaz watch grouping. The best players, play their best, against the best.
