2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread: Congrats to Meghan Duggan!

[True North 3]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

My money is on Duggan too. She is the most consistent and versatile player in the game(international as well) and an outstanding leader. Not sure if this counts, but her game also transcends into international play. She had a great tournament at the four nations a few weeks ago, and she is always amazing to watch when Team USA hits the ice. It's a pretty safe bet that she'll be sporting an A on her USA jersey in the near future. From what I hear she is an excellent student and an outstanding person. She meets all the criteria on the checklist, and takes this competition to a higher level. Yah, Duggan for Mayor.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I agree they're the two players who haven't made the Kaz 10 before who have done the most to stand out.

I could be completely wrong but didn't both Stack and Schaus make the final 10 in 2009?

 

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

The 2009 final ten were:

Meghan Agosta
Rebecca Johnston
Hilary Knight
Monique Lamoureux
Erika Lawler
Gigi Marvin
Molly Schaus
Sarah Vaillancourt
Jessie Vetter (winner)
Jenn Wakefield

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Going into winter break, the picture looks a lot different to me than my post two weeks ago. The biggest developments are UMD continuing to split away it's season, and the surprising Mercyhurst 6-2 loss against St. Lawrence.

Some further thoughts by team:

Meghan Duggan -- I didn't even list her in my top 10 two weeks ago, and now after further review I think she's the leading candidate. She's the captain and leading scorer and plus-minus leader of the team which I consider to be No. 1 in the nation. Most importantly to me in distinguishing candidates, she has clutch points in key games. She's their leading scorer against both UMD and Minnesota too, not just Mankato and St Cloud. She had an extra attacker game-tying goal in their biggest win of the season. She hits all the key Kazmaier criteria.
Knight might be a year away from winning.

Agosta, Bendus -- I expect Agosta will make the top 3 again as long as Mercyhurst keeps winning at it's current pace and she's the nation's leading scorer. But it's tougher for her to win without Mercyhurst being the 5th or 6th best team in the country. Mercyhurst's margin for error is simply smaller than the WCHA teams since their schedule isn't quite as strong. The remaining Cornell/Wisconsin games will be huge. Last game against Cornell, Agosta was shut out against Cornell, while Bendus had a standout performance.
It's worth noting how players have done in the past in Kaz voting when they've been in the 5th-8th range while still being the nation's top scorer. Julie Chu won in 2006-07 in that situation, but there are huge differences. Chu clearly had a strong reputation as an all-around player, and it was well backed up by her stats (she led her team in +/- by an order of magnitude), and she had an All-Academic at an Ivy. So she's an exceptional case.

Hockey East candidates: Stack, Schaus, Wakefield, Poulin --- BC and BU are both in the top 4 of the Pairwise now that Mercyhurst and UMD have slipped. This bodes well for all these candidates. BC and BU both have two games against each other, and the performance in those games will be critical.
In terms of who's the leader now, Stack stands out with a hat trick against BU on her resume, and a torrid scoring pace these last few games, and she's also tops +/- in Hockey East. Schaus has good stats but really lacks any single standout game, but she'll also benefit from posting Bendus/Bauer-like grades. Wakefield had the lone goal in a 1-0 win over BC. She and Philip-Poulin are pretty indistinguishable statwise. They're younger than the BC players, but I think BU will end up having a better season than BC. But if BC closes strong, Stack or Schaus will rise.

No mention of ECAC candidates ? .......Couple on the Big Red plus Babstock should at least get some honorable mention.

 

[mattj711]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

No mention of ECAC candidates ? .......Couple on the Big Red plus Babstock should at least get some honorable mention.

Ya, I would say Mazzotta is doing everything she can to be a solid contender. With the exception (for obvious reasons) of Gallant from Holy Cross, she currently leads just about every goalie statistical category (save %, goals against average, winning percentage) with the only expection being she sits in third for number of shut outs on the season at 4.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

No mention of ECAC candidates ? .......Couple on the Big Red plus Babstock should at least get some honorable mention.

I didn't mean to imply I was listing every candidate in that post. I just wrote about players whose status I feel had changed since my previous post. I didn't have anything to say about the Cornell candidates, who performed as well as expected in recent weeks.

Ya, I would say Mazzotta is doing everything she can to be a solid contender.

Mazzotta is a solid contender. Has she done close to "everything she could?" I'd say no. Unfortunately, the relatively weak ECAC doesn't leave Cornell with many games against top teams, and so the Mercyhurst loss looms large. I think she needs an outstanding performance in the rematch to have a shot. She'd probably also benefit if another ECAC rival emerges as a solid top 10 team, though that's something she can't control.

EDIT+ And of course there are other good Cornell candidates as well. There are tons players who've been really solid but just haven't stood out to this point, but they could still go on a tear and contend for the award. The sport has had plenty of players who've come on late -- examples like the top UNH line from 05-06 or Kristy Zamora's 2001-02 season at Brown (alas none of these players made the Kaz top 10, but the top 10 voting is much later nowadays, into February)

I could be completely wrong but didn't both Stack and Schaus make the final 10 in 2009?

I had forgotten too when I made the initial post in this thread: Stack was a Second Team All-American in 2009, but not Kaz Top 10.

 

[comefrombehind]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Yes, Cornell has a number of candidates in addition to Amanda Mazzotta. While she has four credited shutouts, she also was the winning goalie in two victories in which she and able back-up, Lauren Slobodnick, combined for no goals allowed. With 1st and 2nd team All-American blue-liners playing in front of her, Mazzotta clearly benefits more than most from stout defensive support. That said, her season-to-date statistics and performance in the Canadian U-22 camp speak for themselves.

Most subscribers to the “Cornell is over-rated” school of thought probably: a) have not seen the team play this year, and b) have a rooting interest outside the ECAC. The spectrum ranges from “they would be a .500 team in the WCHA” (my personal favorite) to “they are a top-tier team, but not on par with Wisconsin.”

With a position of first in both qualitative rankings and second in all three quantitative polls, Cornell’s band of discrepancy appears pretty narrow. Consistency of performance – which has eluded both Mercyhurst and UMD thus far this season – clearly weighs more heavily in all rankings than level of peak achievement. It is natural for fan(atics)s to remember the high points as their relative frame of reference and anticipate such top-level performance at season end. The speculation can continue to rage, but in US women’s college hockey – unlike college football – mano-a-mano showdowns will determine the final outcome.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Most subscribers to the “Cornell is over-rated” school of thought probably: a) have not seen the team play this year, and b) have a rooting interest outside the ECAC. The spectrum ranges from “they would be a .500 team in the WCHA” (my personal favorite) to “they are a top-tier team, but not on par with Wisconsin.”

I would not call Cornell over-rated. I would say that they are difficult to rank. Rutter's ranking has them at #2, behind Wisconsin by a slim margin, and I'd say that is probably as good an approximation as any. Could they deserve to be higher than that? Sure, they've dominated most of their competition. But their best wins are two over Quinnipiac, the number #12 team in Rutter. Wisconsin has one more loss than the Big Red, but they also have a win over #4 and #5, plus two each over #8, #9, and #11. The schedules look to be so disparate in terms of strength that an apples/apples comparison is tough.

As you say, any remaining questions will be answered on the ice in March. The difficulty comes for an award like the Kazmaier, where the voting is complete long before the final games in March. How do you fairly compare the numbers of players who are facing different levels of competition? It's hard to do.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Yes, Cornell has a number of candidates in addition to Amanda Mazzotta. While she has four credited shutouts, she also was the winning goalie in two victories in which she and able back-up, Lauren Slobodnick, combined for no goals allowed. With 1st and 2nd team All-American blue-liners playing in front of her, Mazzotta clearly benefits more than most from stout defensive support. That said, her season-to-date statistics and performance in the Canadian U-22 camp speak for themselves.

Most subscribers to the “Cornell is over-rated” school of thought probably: a) have not seen the team play this year, and b) have a rooting interest outside the ECAC. The spectrum ranges from “they would be a .500 team in the WCHA” (my personal favorite) to “they are a top-tier team, but not on par with Wisconsin.”

With a position of first in both qualitative rankings and second in all three quantitative polls, Cornell’s band of discrepancy appears pretty narrow. Consistency of performance – which has eluded both Mercyhurst and UMD thus far this season – clearly weighs more heavily in all rankings than level of peak achievement. It is natural for fan(atics)s to remember the high points as their relative frame of reference and anticipate such top-level performance at season end. The speculation can continue to rage, but in US women’s college hockey – unlike college football – mano-a-mano showdowns will determine the final outcome.

ARM said a lot of what I wanted to say already. I'll talk a bit more about evaluating team performance in the context of this award. (which is why it still belongs in this thread)

I agree with you that it's good to think of teams both in terms of "consistency" and in terms the "best teams they've beaten." Now, to some degree some teams are consistent merely because they've played a weaker schedule. In Cornell's case, you can clearly say they're more consistent than Mercyhurst who lost to two opponents Cornell has regularly beaten, and you could make a good case they're more consistent than UMD. I don't see any good case that Cornell is more consistent with Wisconsin, who split UMD and Minnesota, while Cornell lost its only game to a team better than Minnesota.

ARM argues that Cornell and Wisconsin are difficult to rank. True, and voters ultimately have to make a difficult decision. Imagine they had to make the decision right now (thankfully they don't), would you pick say Mazzotta over Duggan because Cornell is possibly more consistent than Wisconsin? But if you're in a situation where one player clearly has a strong body of evidence against top 10 teams, and another does not, you clearly have to take the former player, even if the latter player has been "more consistent" against sub top 10 teams than the former player has been against top 10 teams. You can't just project the consistency against the weaker teams onto the stronger teams. As I said, any Cornell Kaz candidates need to perform against Mercyhurst to have a real shot at the top 3 or winning the award.

You argue there's a revealed preference for Cornell over Wisconsin based on the polls. But I'd note first, it's only a slight advantage. Second, there's a huge difference in the Kazmaier process in that it's decided by a committee who votes once rather than a weekly poll. I suspect Kaz voters would put in more thought than poll voters on a weekly basis, and that would tend to favor Wisconsin (while many voters likely just use a "move down teams who lose" recursive rule in making their vote). Also, there's much more at stake with the Kaz vote. Kaz voters communicate more than poll voters.

A lot of Cornell supporters feel like last year's strong tourney run is reason to feel they're No. 1 ranking is clearly deserved this year. I'm not so sure. Last year the ECAC was closer to the WCHA than in 5 years, and not coincidentally the ECAC got it's first NCAA finalist since 2005. The other top 4 ECAC teams (Harvard, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac) were clearly comparable if not better in some dimensions than the other top 4 WCHA teams (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and St. Cloud), so Cornell was as well prepared for NCAAs as UMD, and better prepared than Mercyhurst. But this season, you can make a strong case that the 5th or 6th best WCHA is better than the 2nd best ECAC team. The fact that the WCHA has won every title suggests that teams from weaker conferences have never been able to overcome their weaker conference schedules, and upon closer evaluation I see little reason to doubt that claim.

And for the record, I have no rooting interest outside the ECAC here (unless you count supporting the sport as a whole ). I want to see the ECAC do well. But recent history does not bode well. Maybe Cornell will benefit because half it's team will go to U-22s. Maybe they should scrimmage men's teams more, and try to create high stakes atmosphere in those scrimmages. But all prior evidence suggests they won't be as prepared in March as the WCHA rivals.

 

[mattj711]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

ARM said a lot of what I wanted to say already. I'll talk a bit more about evaluating team performance in the context of this award. (which is why it still belongs in this thread)

I agree with you that it's good to think of teams both in terms of "consistency" and in terms the "best teams they've beaten." Now, to some degree some teams are consistent merely because they've played a weaker schedule. In Cornell's case, you can clearly say they're more consistent than Mercyhurst who lost to two opponents Cornell has regularly beaten, and you could make a good case they're more consistent than UMD. I don't see any good case that Cornell is more consistent with Wisconsin, who split UMD and Minnesota, while Cornell lost its only game to a team better than Minnesota.

ARM argues that Cornell and Wisconsin are difficult to rank. True, and voters ultimately have to make a difficult decision. Imagine they had to make the decision right now (thankfully they don't), would you pick say Mazzotta over Duggan because Cornell is possibly more consistent than Wisconsin? But if you're in a situation where one player clearly has a strong body of evidence against top 10 teams, and another does not, you clearly have to take the former player, even if the latter player has been "more consistent" against sub top 10 teams than the former player has been against top 10 teams. You can't just project the consistency against the weaker teams onto the stronger teams. As I said, any Cornell Kaz candidates need to perform against Mercyhurst to have a real shot at the top 3 or winning the award.

You argue there's a revealed preference for Cornell over Wisconsin based on the polls. But I'd note first, it's only a slight advantage. Second, there's a huge difference in the Kazmaier process in that it's decided by a committee who votes once rather than a weekly poll. I suspect Kaz voters would put in more thought than poll voters on a weekly basis, and that would tend to favor Wisconsin (while many voters likely just use a "move down teams who lose" recursive rule in making their vote). Also, there's much more at stake with the Kaz vote. Kaz voters communicate more than poll voters.

A lot of Cornell supporters feel like last year's strong tourney run is reason to feel they're No. 1 ranking is clearly deserved this year. I'm not so sure. Last year the ECAC was closer to the WCHA than in 5 years, and not coincidentally the ECAC got it's first NCAA finalist since 2005. The other top 4 ECAC teams (Harvard, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac) were clearly comparable if not better in some dimensions than the other top 4 WCHA teams (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and St. Cloud), so Cornell was as well prepared for NCAAs as UMD, and better prepared than Mercyhurst. But this season, you can make a strong case that the 5th or 6th best WCHA is better than the 2nd best ECAC team. The fact that the WCHA has won every title suggests that teams from weaker conferences have never been able to overcome their weaker conference schedules, and upon closer evaluation I see little reason to doubt that claim.

And for the record, I have no rooting interest outside the ECAC here (unless you count supporting the sport as a whole ). I want to see the ECAC do well. But recent history does not bode well. Maybe Cornell will benefit because half it's team will go to U-22s. Maybe they should scrimmage men's teams more, and try to create high stakes atmosphere in those scrimmages. But all prior evidence suggests they won't be as prepared in March as the WCHA rivals.

I have to 100% agree with everything you said. I certainly hope Cornell is crowned champion at the end of the season, but there is no question that the WCHA teams face stiffer competition on a regular basis. That certainly helps prepare them for end of season play.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Meghan Duggan -- I didn't even list her in my top 10 two weeks ago, and now after further review I think she's the leading candidate. She's the captain and leading scorer and plus-minus leader of the team which I consider to be No. 1 in the nation. Most importantly to me in distinguishing candidates, she has clutch points in key games. She's their leading scorer against both UMD and Minnesota too, not just Mankato and St Cloud. She had an extra attacker game-tying goal in their biggest win of the season. She hits all the key Kazmaier criteria.
Knight might be a year away from winning.

Agosta, Bendus -- I expect Agosta will make the top 3 again as long as Mercyhurst keeps winning at it's current pace and she's the nation's leading scorer. But it's tougher for her to win without Mercyhurst being the 5th or 6th best team in the country. Mercyhurst's margin for error is simply smaller than the WCHA teams since their schedule isn't quite as strong. The remaining Cornell/Wisconsin games will be huge. Last game against Cornell, Agosta was shut out against Cornell, while Bendus had a standout performance.

I think that at the time you wrote this, the assumption was still that Agosta would be missing the game vs Wisco. She was present, and did nothing to hurt her chances on the offensive end, with a nice primary assist and a late goal. In the defensive zone, if she's interested, she hides it well. She may have been the most talented player on the ice, but she certainly wasn't the best player, and maybe not even the best Meghan.

Bendus and Bram were absent, so it doesn't look like I'm going to be able to watch Bendus display her Kaz form in person.

Duggan had her usual high-level game all over the ice, with a nice snipe for a goal plus a primary assist on the lasting-lead goal. On the latter, she had several options, patiently waited, and chose the right one.

Knight was the human wrecking ball I've come to admire (and dread). If she follows this up with a big weekend in Duluth later this month, she may not be a year away after all.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Thanks for the observations. I have to believe that Duggan and Knight are the two leading candidates with some breathing room, but there's still plenty of hockey left to go.

 

[BadgerFan11]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Thanks for the observations. I have to believe that Duggan and Knight are the two leading candidates with some breathing room, but there's still plenty of hockey left to go.

another strong performance from the Wisco Duo vs #10 OSU. Duggan picks up 2, +5 night, extends the point streak to 17 games and as always, performs at both ends of the ice. Knight picks up 2 and 2, +4 night, and has another strong offensive performance (6 shots). It's tough to imagine both of these 2 not being in the final 3 ... one of (if not THE) best offensive weapons in the country, and probably the best two-way player in the world

Agosta also has a strong night with 2 and 2 , 9 shots and a +2 night (didn't see the game).

 

[True North 3]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

when are the nominations announced?

 

[dave1381]

when are the nominations announced?

Feb 22 - nominations announced
March 3 - final 10 announced
March 10 - final 3 announced

 

[Jersey]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

How about Rachel Weber from Princeton, recently set ECAC record for consecutive scoreless minutes, and has been the catalyst for the Lady Tigers turnaround(IMO)

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I'd say she's on track to be Second Team All-ECAC goalie, and she'll get nominated, but she probably isn't really in the Kazmaier 10 mix this season.

 

[BoSox3066]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Is character and etc a factor for the Patty Kaz? Duggans got tons of that

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Is character and etc a factor for the Patty Kaz? Duggans got tons of that

Yup and yup. And the GPAs are made available to all coaches as well.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

The 4-0 BU win over BC was interesting for the Kaz 10 race. Wakefield and Philip-Poulin have clearly solidified themselves as the best two players in Hockey East, as they've come up big in every top 10 game for BU this season. Same can't be said for Stack and Schaus who are now solidly on the bubble for the Kaz 10, while BC seems solidly the No. 8 team in the country in my opinion (though some case could be made to put them above North Dakota).

I think the 10 will come from the top 6 teams, with conference leaders Cornell (pick two), Wisconsin (Duggan, Knight), Mercyhurst (Agosta,Bendus), and BU (Wake, PP) all getting two players, and Raty for Minnesota and Irwin for UMD rounding out the top 10. Joceyln Lam for UND and Schaus for BC probably have the best chance to break into that, but if Schaus gets it it'll be on rep because she just hasn't had all that great a season. Probably the second Cornell player would be most on the bubble from the 10 I listed since Cornell has several candidates who will split votes.