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2009 Boston Red Sox

Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Rover said:
From a batting perspective, with OPS as the guide apparently, who would you rather have on your team. Drew or Ichiro?
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Without just using OPS as a guide - we're merely using it as one of several stats to support our argument about Drew - I'd rather have Drew than Ichiro.

Think about it, what is Ichiro's forte? Getting singles/getting on base. Guess who got on base more than Ichiro last year?

Yup.

Add in Drew's far superior slugging percentage, and there you have it. This shouldn't even be a debate. Drew was better at doing what Ichiro is supposedly the bestest EVAAAA at, plus he hits the ball hard and gets, yes, a lot of extra base hits.

I hope you aren't arguing that you'd rather have Ichiro than Drew. I would, personally, love to hear that mess of an argument.
pirate said:
Some guys get hits when you need them, others go 3-4 on nights when you are winning 10-1.

I don't dislike Drew but he reminds me of Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu when they were in Philly...the stats were good but if you followed the team you knew they had more solo homeruns in out of reach games than they did clutch hits in close games. You knew they rarely instigated a rally and when it didn't matter they 'came up big'.
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Literally every part in there is something that isn't really in the hitter's control. Hitting a solo HR versus a 3-run HR isn't something you can just decide to do. Hitting in the 'clutch' happens, yes, but it isn't done with any consistency year to year.
Emotion doesn't win games but you knew Kapler was doing everything he could on every play/pitch...the emotionless guys who watch the third strike and walk back to the dugout like they were just checking the mailbox to see if any junkmail arrived create very little goodwill.

Fans like to see guys who care, get dirty, take the inside fastball off the hip, take out the ss on a potential dp, stretch a single into a double, sign autographs, argue a bad call, punch ARod etc. nobody does it every play or game but if you never do it then it is noticed...if all they can offer are their stats then I can understand if fans don't value their stats as much as the next guy's.
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I actually buy this argument a lot more. Fans do love those kind of guys. Having said that, if you took all of the most gritty, likable guys in baseball and put them on the same team, you'll probably find them in close to last place if they don't have the numbers, too.
You could build a team of good stats guys that would come in last place in a good division...
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It depends on how good the stats are. If you have 9 guys with an OPS of .850 (good but not incredible), you will not find them in last place, I assure you, unless they have 5 guys named Brian Rose in the rotation.

Yeah, I whipped out the Brian Rose reference. I went there. :D
 
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Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

It is unmanageable to control for many aspects of comparison...is it 'fair' to compare stats if you play in the AL east vs. the NL west? To control for league impact, division impact, stadium impact, interleague schedule impact, surrounding player impact etc. would be a bit of a challenge but necessary (among other things) to really compare player to player. You could take that as far as weather in cold cities in the spring and fall vs. warm weather cities for other players...position in the batting order, does the team play small ball or Earl ball?

The stats only get you so far...then it comes down to baseball sense, judgment and opinion. Sure, an opinion that conflicts with all stats is suspect, but an opinion supported only by stats is also suspect (maybe less so, but I don't hear too many GM's that manage only by stats and don't include many other factors in choosing/promoting players).

I don't doubt that playing the odds and going with stats works better than just feel. Which is why fantasy sports are now less about who knows the sport vs. who spends more time buying information and relying on stats...just like poker is no longer dominated by the crafty old guys and instead is the realm of 21 year old guys that play on the computer all day.
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

pirate said:
It is unmanageable to control for many aspects of comparison...is it 'fair' to compare stats if you play in the AL east vs. the NL west? To control for league impact, division impact, stadium impact, interleague schedule impact, surrounding player impact etc. would be a bit of a challenge but necessary (among other things) to really compare player to player.
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Actually, the sophisticated stats DO take those things into account. lol
just like poker is no longer dominated by the crafty old guys and instead is the realm of 21 year old guys that play on the computer all day.
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Actually, baseball is no longer dominated by the 'crafty old guys' either, and is in fact dominated by stats guys.

Here's the thing about stats: A baseball season is so long, with so many variables and inputs, that using stats really is the best way to judge whether or not a player is good or not. In given situations on a micro scale (individual games or at bats) a ton of factors come into play, most of which are out of the player's control. But, over the long run, the stats do show who is more likely to be a better ballplayer on your team.

Just like in poker, knowing the math will make you win more money in the long run, knowing the math in baseball will help you win more games in the long run as well. That's what it's all about, isn't it?
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Someone help me out here. Is this a picture of Tony or is this Superfan Joe? Frankly, they all look the same to me.... :p

3201445740_c9c93e6965_o.jpg
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Without just using OPS as a guide - we're merely using it as one of several stats to support our argument about Drew - I'd rather have Drew than Ichiro.

Think about it, what is Ichiro's forte? Getting singles/getting on base. Guess who got on base more than Ichiro last year?

Yup.

Add in Drew's far superior slugging percentage, and there you have it. This shouldn't even be a debate. Drew was better at doing what Ichiro is supposedly the bestest EVAAAA at, plus he hits the ball hard and gets, yes, a lot of extra base hits.

I hope you aren't arguing that you'd rather have Ichiro than Drew. I would, personally, love to hear that mess of an argument.
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I rest my case. Drew > Ichiro. Nothing more needs to be written. :D
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

This is all very amusing. The bottom line in my view is that JD Drew did not come to Boston and do what he was supposed to do. He was supposed to be a number 5 hitter behind Manny and he hasn't done that. He's a 7 hitter who draws a lot of walks because there are two automatic outs behind him. You can't just say, "Take his production and slot him 5 and he would have X RBI" because he can't produce like that when he hits 5. If he could, Tito would hit him there. Is there a site that breaks down his OPS at different spots in the order? I bet his OPS is the best when he's hitting in the lower third of the order vs. when he's hitting in the heart of the order.

The perception among a majority of Boston fans is that Drew has been a disappointment. He had a tremendous Game 6 against Cleveland and he had a great month when Papi was out. Other than that, he's been hurt and he doesn't come through when needed. All the numbers in the world aren't going to change that. Coming through on the field will change that.
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

I'd love to see Ichiro on the Red Sox, but I don't think he's on the block. So again, you're not answering my initial question, who could they actually get who's an upgrade?

I will disagree with TTT20 and say that given the all-around elements Suzuki brings (speed, stolen bases, defense) he's a more valuable player than Drew, but not by a huge margin. In fact, depending on the team, there are some teams where Drew would be a better addition than Suzuki, it depends on what the team needs.

Of course, the Red Sox don't really need a speedy leadoff guy who hits a lot of singles - they have one (granted, a lesser one). What they need is a masher who can hit over 35 homers consistently, and neither Drew nor Ichiro is that.
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

My initial question was that the Sox need more production out of the RF, #6 spot that Drew occupies. I then said good luck getting rid of him, meaning the team is stuck with him. They could sign Bay back and move Cameron over to right. However, that's not realistic sadly as they'd still have to eat Drew's salary. Beyond that, its tough to say who's available now vs who will be available mid season. Were Victor Martinez an option going into last year, the Sox most likely would have pulled it off given that problems we all knew about Varitek going into last season. So, getting back to hypotheticals, anybody with a brain would trade Drew for Ichiro straight up in a nanosecond and laugh at Seattle for making the deal. While you aren't as far off the reservation as your friend, you're implication is that Ichiro plays a certain role that isn't going to be correctly reflected in OPS, which is to get on and then steal bases and score much more easily than Drew, all the while batting in a worse line up. That's a correct assertion, and really what I've been saying for the last 2 days. You can't pick one stat that reflects well on a guy and start saying a .270 hitter is better than a future hall of famer in his prime (unless of course you're a total idiot).
 
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Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Keep Bay and replace Drew with CAMERON, and that's an upgrade? Really?

Cameron is a decent player, but come on. For someone who loves batting average so much, the guy hit .250 last year and has only cracked .270 once, back in '05. And Drew's OPS just blows Cameron's out of the water.

You don't totally discount the importance of getting on base, right? It's kind of a big deal.

By the way, there are metrics that include baserunning, stolen bases, etc. Yes, they're at the mercy of the people who design them, but they've been developed and evaluated by people who are good at this stuff - and most of them rely simply on adding up different measurement stats. Secondary Average is a good one.
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Rover said:
you're implication is that Ichiro plays a certain role that isn't going to be correctly reflected in OPS, which is to get on and then steal bases and score much more easily than Drew, all the while batting in a worse line up.
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You mean the same Drew who scored only 4 less runs than Ichiro, despite playing in 9 fewer games, while batting in front of the 7-8-9 hitters instead of the 2-3-4 hitters?

Try again.

It's easy for me to cherry-pick stats that support my case when most of them do. If you're going to cherry-pick, at least pick one that supports yours.
 
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Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

I'm staying out of this ****ing match, but it amuses me to no end to see people deride modern baseball statistics for being unnecessarily complex, yet go on to use QB rating in football without batting an eye.

Have you ever seen the rating for figuring out a quarterback's rating?
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Also, if "on base percentage" is complex, "Horton Hears a Who" is on par with Shakespeare.
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Well to be fair, while determining OBP is fairly simple in theory, the formula looks daunting:

56e63a7b1b0724813e09ba0ab1160a22.png
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Swansong said:
Well to be fair, while determining OBP is fairly simple in theory, the formula looks daunting:

56e63a7b1b0724813e09ba0ab1160a22.png
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Code: 
Reach 1st base w/o causing an out
-----------------------------------------
PA-Reaching 1st base while causing an out

(1B-1BO)/(PA-1BO)
1B=reaches first
1BO=reaching first while causing an out (fielder's choice)
PA=Plate appearences.

3 numbers at worst... unless I haven't gotten every situation. By "statnerd" theory of baseball though OBP would still be deficient... you'd want (1B-1BO)/PA.
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Swansong said:
I'm staying out of this ****ing match, but it amuses me to no end to see people deride modern baseball statistics for being unnecessarily complex, yet go on to use QB rating in football without batting an eye.

Have you ever seen the rating for figuring out a quarterback's rating?
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What the hell are you talking about Buckwheat? NOBODY takes the QB rating seriously.

:rolleyes:
 
Re: 2009 Boston Red Sox

TonyTheTiger20 said:
You mean the same Drew who scored only 4 less runs than Ichiro, despite playing in 9 fewer games, while batting in front of the 7-8-9 hitters instead of the 2-3-4 hitters?

Try again.

It's easy for me to cherry-pick stats that support my case when most of them do. If you're going to cherry-pick, at least pick one that supports yours.
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No problem. Lets look at runs from Drew's time with the Sox to Ichiro's over the same time in Seattle (again a much worse team than the World Series champs).

Ichiro - 111, 103, 88 (2009 being the worst of his career)
Drew - 84,79,84 (84 being the second highest of his career)

Even more ****ing, lets look at RBI's bearing in mind Ichiro's a lead off hitter, while Drew has Youk, Manny and Pedroia up before him..

Ichiro - 68,42,46
Drew - 64,64,68

So, I guy batting in the heart of the order on the WS champs in 2007 has less RBI's than a lead off hitter??? Yeah.

How about total bases???

Ichiro - 292,265,297
Drew - 197,191,236 :eek: :eek: :eek:

And lastly, lets look at SB's as since Drew is good at drawing walks, what's he doing once on base with all those free passes?

Ichiro - 37,43,26 (his career low)
Drew - 4,4,2

So, once they get to first, once guy is 10 times more likely to reach second than the other.


See, I'm more than happy to quote stats, as I've just hung you with them. Stats are good supplementary info, but they need to be looked at in aggregate and need to be looked at as part of a bigger picture, not as THE picture. However, feel free to keep pushing the Drew > Ichiro scenario though. I haven't laughed this hard since some Boston sports personality had Drew Bledsoe as a better QB than John Elway.
 
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