I think if the Dems keep it 50-50 it will be a hell of an effort. Three seats GOP has a good shot at and only a couple the Dems realistically could flip. One thing they should do is empower local officials and don’t dictate too much from Washington.
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117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!
- Thread starter Kepler
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I think if the Dems keep it 50-50 it will be a hell of an effort. Three seats GOP has a good shot at and only a couple the Dems realistically could flip. One thing they should do is empower local officials and don’t dictate too much from Washington.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
That seems to go against everything I have read...
You mean like our panel of economics experts here on Cafe?
I'm sure the losses aren't that bad, assuming you're not one of the 1.4 million.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Me too. 34 seats up, 20 GOP, 14 Dem.
GOP targets:
CO Bennet
NV Cortez Masto
NH Hassan
AZ Kelly
GA Warnock
Dem targets:
PA open (Toomey)
WI RoJo
FL Rubio
IA Grassley
NC open (Burr)
OH open (Portman)
Midterm elections usually favor the non-White House party but who knows since we are going through a full-bore realignment?
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I’d guess the closest races will be PA, GA, NC, AZ, WI, and NH. Fetterman seems like a solid candidate in PA. Jackson in NC seems like a Cal Cunningham, maybe without the baggage. Tim Ryan sounds likely to go for it in OH, but I think OH may be out of reach for us now.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Rumor is Sununu runs in NH which takes that off the table -- that family's machine has NH locked up tight.
May all come down to the cheeseheads whether we can hold the Senate.
It's possible of course that post-Dump, with indictments being handed down every other Friday, the GOP implodes and we get a Dem wave. But it's just as likely that post-Dump America falls asleep again and the Nazis creep back.
bronconick
Yep, still here
A Sununu ran (and lost) in 2008 so I wouldn't call it a lost cause.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
That is part of the problem with the CBO...they don't define what the 1.4 million are. A solid percentage of that will be secondary/supplemental employment. The "loss" will be offset by the higher income at their primary job. (in theory)
The tip off is that it pulls almost a million out of poverty. The ones that likely would be pulled out of poverty would have the jobs at risk of being cut.
The last 2 GOP administrations killed way more jobs than that...and in way less time.
The CBO is making these predictions based on assumptions, which is fine. Problem is they are ignoring that in practice it has almost never worked out like they are predicting. Old jobs that can't afford to pay employees are Darwined out and new jobs spring up.
Hassan is a strong incumbent for Democrats. If Sununu jumps to the Senate, that’d be a marquee race. Rumor has it Ayotte is looking at running again too.
RoJo smoked Feingold in 2016. Maybe Ron Kind gives up his seat and runs for Senate? That’d almost certainly turn his seat red, but he appears like he has some kind of crossover appeal.
Your last sentence is definitely a possibility. It’s hard to stay vigilant, and not everyone who voted against Trump is going to stay vigilant. That said, not everyone who voted for Trump is going to care about politics post-Trump either. I love watching how this sh-t shapes up and shakes out.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
RIGHT NOW I don't see Kelly losing against whatever Trumper the AZGOP puts up. Warnock will end up closer (unless he ends up going against Perdue...then its a cake walk) but I think the larger counties and the fact like Abrams is possibly on the ticket for Governor will help him there.
The rest who knows. I would like to think WI and PA are so annoyed with what the GOP tried to pull that they would be motivated to vote Dem but it is just so hard to know. The rest is even harder to figure out.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
This right here is the key and why we just can't predict anything. Theoretically if the Dems stay engaged then 2022 could be like 2018 because Trump voters tend to stay home when he isn't on the ticket. (ask Georgia!) If the Dems go lame then all bets are off. That is what Harrison needs to do...focus on keeping everyone engaged and in the fight. even if that means I need to still get 75k emails a week.
Slap Shot
I got nothing
A lot of this. I read most of the report from your link and the scary factor was greatly alleviated by the end. Possibly 1.4 million lose out but the CBO suggests a measurable % of those were going to be lost regardless, it's possible another 500k are created, net revenues likely increase because most earning $15 an hour are spending nearly all of their disposable income, there could be a resurgence in some industries in which as of now they cannot find qualified applicants at $9 an hour but at $15 that improves and in turn improves productivity, qualify of work, etc.
All "social programs" have a cost but the gains should be plentiful.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
I didn't know that. That's good.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Warnock is going to be a fight to keep. Others seem relatively safe.
PA and WI seem like possible flips. The rest are unlikely at best. I’m not sure I see what you guys are seeing that makes this look like a D year.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
I don't see it as a D year. I just don't see it as DOOOOM!
I think it will be a wash.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
My impression is AZ is VA, not NC. I think D will be pulling away over the next decade to make AZ blue. Plus, the AZGOP is a dumpster fire.
NV OTOH I used to be pretty sure about but lately they have been regressing. That's no bueno. Hopefully, Dem fiscally liberal policies will appeal to the huge population of restaurant and hospitality workers.
I think Nevada is our Florida or maybe NC- always just out of reach for the GOP. Until the Reid machine disappears, I think we’re okay in Nevada. Plus, Cortez-Masto and Rosen both seem like strong fits for their state. I could be completely wrong about that. I also know they just had two white GOP guys for Governor and Senator recently, so there’s that too.
aparch
Well-known member
Joe Kernan on CNBC was having kittens interviewing a senator about this report this morning. Kept repeating "Only 900,000 people will get raised out of poverty! It will cost a million and a half jobs though! Is it worth it to lose that many jobs just to get less than a million people more money?"
I d*mn near drove my truck into a traffic attenuator at speed while yelling at my radio. I've heard him carry water (in the Hovey/Sicatoka way of just asking questions) but this was the first time I've heard him gargle GOP talking points.
My only question is, is the reported calculated loss of a million jobs including or ignoring the FIFTEEN MILLION currently unemployed for almost a goddammed year?!
unofan
Well-known member
Iowa just needs to find someone under the age of 60 with some charisma to run if it's an open seat (if Grassley runs again, forget about it. He'll win with 60%+). I'm farking tired of Dems nominating boring old upper middle class white dudes that have all the charisma of an ear of corn. Having said that, so long as IA-4 tilts heavily red, it's going to be an uphill climb in any statewide race since the other 3 districts are purple at best.
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