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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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rufus said:
They still got McDonalds and Coke though.
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I mean, here's the thing. Ya gotta let them eat. You can't embargo food. I'm not sure either of those two fall into that category, but there definitely exists a line for sanctions that start to move towards amoral. It's why Russian fertilizer and energy exports haven't been subject to sanctions yet. The world needs to eat and heat their homes.

There is some question of whether Putin will put an export ban on them, but he might not want to because it's Russia's only source of income at the moment. I saw something about this a day or two ago, not sure what's come of it.

Europe and the world are racing to source energy from elsewhere. But the fertilizer would be a massive problem for the world. A quick google search shows Russia and Belarus make up $10B of the $40-$50B fertilizer export market. That would be a big problem if we sanctioned fertilizer.

anyways, sanction the banks and everything that makes life worth living. Don't sanction the things you must have to live. Then you're actively trying to kill them. Not a great look IMO.


Edit: which isn't to say that line won't be crossed. Because there's always a calculation.
 
So.... it's okay to keep the Russian McDonalds open and working and also okay to allow the Ukrainian McDonalds to be closed by the Russians?

;-) Kidding, kidding.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Europe and the world are racing to source energy from elsewhere. But the fertilizer would be a massive problem for the world. A quick google search shows Russia and Belarus make up $10B of the $40-$50B fertilizer export market. That would be a big problem if we sanctioned fertilizer.

Edit: which isn't to say that line won't be crossed. Because there's always a calculation.
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Everything I’ve been reading in the news today has the US (with bipartisan support) and Europe discussing a ban of all oil and gas purchases from Russia. We’re already moving into the next calculation.
 
Yeah, it's why I said I'm not sure if coke and Micky Ds counts. I wouldn't call them typical foodstuffs that would be excluded like wheat, corn, etc.

I think they should both be pulled. They're luxuries (not sure that's the word I want to use, but can't think of anything better) and aren't needed to survive. I'm also not sure they're what make life worth living, as referenced in my previous post, but the convenience is.

the point I was trying to make is that we shouldn't badger all companies into cutting off everything. There's a complicated moral minefield when you start to siege an entire country. I'll let the the very bright and talented diplomats wander through that


(and I'm sure I'll be here with perfect hindsight telling everyone what they did wrong ;-) )
 
Russell Jaslow said:
Everything Iâ??ve been reading in the news today has the US (with bipartisan support) and Europe discussing a ban of all oil and gas purchases from Russia. Weâ??re already moving into the next calculation.
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Probably a logistical problem. Can't shut off gas that powers a good chunk of Germany overnight without securing AND IMPLEMENTING an alternate supply line. My employer understands that. We were going to insource the production of a critical chemical precursor to a line that had >$500M in sales after the chemical company told us they were raising rates. We did a full engineering package, purchased long lead equipment, and then told them we were going to insource it. Price magically fell the next month.

I'm guessing Germany wants not only assurances and agreements, but wants that supply chain working before they lose 15% of their grid.

Edit: I'm sure the oil execs in all of these countries needed to be consulted to make sure the countries can handle switch crude supplies over. Russian crude is apparently better than WTI and almost on par with Brent. We can't just switch over to Texas, et al exclusively without having an impact on how we refine it. If we can't, we need to fix that before we turn off the high quality spigot.
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
(and I'm sure I'll be here with perfect hindsight telling everyone what they did wrong ;-) )
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Braver than I. If I'm wrong I'm just gonna leave my phone in the house and go for a long walk to my mailbox and wait for some manilla envelopes to be dropped off... haha.
 
The problem with the "8 billion dead" calculation is it justifies anything, because anything is preferable to 8 billion dead.

Putin attacks an EU member and warns us not to intervene or he'll launch nukes. Well, it's preferable for them to die than 8 billion.

Putin attacks a NATO member and warns us not to intervene or he'll launch nukes. Well, it's preferable for them to die than 8 billion.

Hell, Putin attacks us and warns us to surrender or he'll launch nukes. Well, it's preferable...
 
Kepler said:
The problem with the "8 billion dead" calculation is it justifies anything, because anything is preferable to 8 billion dead.

Putin attacks an EU member and warns us not to intervene or he'll launch nukes. Well, it's preferable for them to die than 8 billion.

Putin attacks a NATO member and warns us not to intervene or he'll launch nukes. Well, it's preferable for them to die than 8 billion.

Hell, Putin attacks us and warns us to surrender or he'll launch nukes. Well, it's preferable...
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The difference is, we have a treaty that obliges us to one of those scenarios. No such treaty exists with Ukraine.
 
Kepler said:
This is America the next time the Republicans are in control. I fucking hope the electorate finally understands that. This is what fascism is, and Putin's people have exactly the same mis-wired brains as Dumpies.
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Won't have long to wait.
 
It's not shocking that many of the Rank & File Russians believe what they are told from State TV and that open sourced "internet information" can't be relied upon.

This is the front that needs to be won in the next few election cycles around the world. Basically young vs old.
 
RaceBoarder said:
It's not shocking that many of the Rank & File Russians believe what they are told from State TV and that open sourced "internet information" can't be relied upon.

This is the front that needs to be won in the next few election cycles around the world. Basically young vs old.
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I mean...we have Fox News and Newsmax poisoning halfnpur country. I find it totally plausible.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
The difference is, we have a treaty that obliges us to one of those scenarios. No such treaty exists with Ukraine.
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But what difference does that makes against the valid you point you make about ending the world? Why would you kill 8 billion people for a scrap of paper?
 
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