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Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

OK, you CT hockey fans in the New Haven/Hamden area. I am not a math guy nor a computer geek, but here's what I THINK
I know. ASSUME first that BOTH HARVARD and BU win their Saturday games. That leaves 16 permutations involving the OTHER FOUR (4)
conferences. UNDER ALL SUCH SCENARIOS, QUINNIPIAC GETS IN. ALSO, IN FIFTEEN (15) of the SIXTEEN (16) SCENARIOS, YALE GETS IN AS WELL.
THE ONLY COMBINATION THAT BOOTS YALE IS MERCYHURST+MINNESOTA+MIAMI+MICHIGAN TECH. THAT PUTS YALE #16 IN PWR, AND WE GET
BUMPED BY MERCYHURST'S AQ. GO CRIMSON, GO TERRIERS, AND GO WAYNE WILSON'S RIT !!!
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

This aggravation could have been avoided at St. Lawrence, at NU, and last Sunday, just to name 3 that really should have been W's, but we did go through this same thing two years ago.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

And the opening tie against Princeton.... don't forget that one.
 
yaledoc said:
OK, you CT hockey fans in the New Haven/Hamden area. I am not a math guy nor a computer geek, but here's what I THINK
I know. ASSUME first that BOTH HARVARD and BU win their Saturday games. That leaves 16 permutations involving the OTHER FOUR (4)
conferences. UNDER ALL SUCH SCENARIOS, QUINNIPIAC GETS IN. ALSO, IN FIFTEEN (15) of the SIXTEEN (16) SCENARIOS, YALE GETS IN AS WELL.
THE ONLY COMBINATION THAT BOOTS YALE IS MERCYHURST+MINNESOTA+MIAMI+MICHIGAN TECH. THAT PUTS YALE #16 IN PWR, AND WE GET
BUMPED BY MERCYHURST'S AQ. GO CRIMSON, GO TERRIERS, AND GO WAYNE WILSON'S RIT !!!
Click to expand...


Not true. 2 Boston teams (Harvard & BU) win, Yale is in. Either loses, they're out. NU game was the killer. Win that & they were safely in. Stll, this allows me to root for my son's Wolverines. And face it, with no bonafide scorer, Yale has achieved plenty. You can't gripe about their effort. If the ECAC gets 3, which it now looks likely they will, that's also a good year. If Harvard is healthy and Ana's plays - not to mention if Yale gets in & Lyon is hot - there could be a lot of long faces out West again this year. BU also a legit threat. Like it or not, the speed game, and the balance of power has come East, regardless of what the PWR says. Let's see what happens.
 
bulldog10jw said:
This aggravation could have been avoided at St. Lawrence, at NU, and last Sunday, just to name 3 that really should have been W's, but we did go through this same thing two years ago.
Click to expand...

Stop - young team with no legit scorer. NU game was bad. But STL game a fluke. But NU game saw Rapensky (and maybe Learned) emerge. And STL was the last game before Lyon put an S on his chest. The team has grown up - as witnessed by the game Sun when they miraculously killed off a 5 min major at the end of OT. When healthy - Harvard & Q are better - legit title threats - this year. But the next 2? With Lyon? I'll take my chances. He could be better than Westlund. And the team is deep. They are 1 player, 1 line away. Can't fault this group. When healthy, I think Harvards the best team out there. Bad draw unfortunately.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

What do you mean "not true" ? The whole post is predicated on Harvard and BU winning; that said, there IS the one scenario that I mentioned where Yale does get ousted.
Why does everyone overuse apostrophes? Qpac's star forward (#7) is named Sam Anas !!!
 
yaledoc said:
What do you mean "not true" ? The whole post is predicated on Harvard and BU winning; that said, there IS the one scenario that I mentioned where Yale does get ousted.
Why does everyone overuse apostrophes? Qpac's star forward (#7) is named Sam Anas !!!
Click to expand...

Autocorrect - I know his name is Anas. Saw it after it posted. Oh well.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

yaledoc said:
OK, you CT hockey fans in the New Haven/Hamden area. I am not a math guy nor a computer geek, but here's what I THINK
I know. ASSUME first that BOTH HARVARD and BU win their Saturday games. That leaves 16 permutations involving the OTHER FOUR (4)
conferences. UNDER ALL SUCH SCENARIOS, QUINNIPIAC GETS IN. ALSO, IN FIFTEEN (15) of the SIXTEEN (16) SCENARIOS, YALE GETS IN AS WELL.
THE ONLY COMBINATION THAT BOOTS YALE IS MERCYHURST+MINNESOTA+MIAMI+MICHIGAN TECH. THAT PUTS YALE #16 IN PWR, AND WE GET
BUMPED BY MERCYHURST'S AQ. GO CRIMSON, GO TERRIERS, AND GO WAYNE WILSON'S RIT !!!
Click to expand...

I think your permutations need a little more detail, because the NCHC has a third place game that (A) affects PWR and (B) can end in a tie. So, if you consider 3 scenarios for that game, and 16 scenarios for the other 4 games (locking BU and Harvard as wins), we've got 48 scenarios outside of ECAC and HE.

If we also trust that the PWR Predictor is accurate (personally, I do), then by putting your exact list above into the predictor, we can tweak the NCHC third place game for all 3 results:

MERCYHURST+MINNESOTA+MIAMI+MICHIGAN TECH+DENVER: Yale IN
MERCYHURST+MINNESOTA+MIAMI+MICHIGAN TECH+NODAK: Yale OUT
MERCYHURST+MINNESOTA+MIAMI+MICHIGAN TECH+TIE: Yale OUT

Thus, if BU and Harvard are wins, then I think there are 2/48 scenarios where Yale is out anyway. That would put their probability at 46/48 or 95.8% after BU and Harvard win. Truth be told, I did not enter all 46 into the predictor to verify, but based on all the scenarios I've seen people run I think this is fairly accurate.

If you are someone who likes to know approximation of overall odds, then we've got 0.50 (Harvard) * 0.50 (BU) * .958 (all other league outcomes) = 24%.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

Well done, Zamboni Dude. I totally MISSED the fact that there was a consolation game. By the time I ran my 16 permutations on top of the Harvard and BU wins,
I wasn't about to do it all over again. Just let the Terriers and the Crimson win.......I will live with whatever else happens !!!
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

Wow, backed in again, hopefully déjà vu all over again!
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

Glad Yale is in. Hope you guys make it count. Anyone know if Yale has been practicing in the last week? Good defense can win in the playoffs. With this kind of parity in D1 hockey, who knows.
 
Re: Yale Hockey 2014-2015. 138 miles to the ultimate goal.

Got 6 said:
Glad Yale is in. Hope you guys make it count. Anyone know if Yale has been practicing in the last week? Good defense can win in the playoffs. With this kind of parity in D1 hockey, who knows.
Click to expand...

Some friends ran into a few players in New Haven tonight but not sure if break is over or not. If I know Allain, he kept them on the ice until it was determined they were out. I just hope they stay east. Congrats on a great season by SLU this year.
 
redrocker said:
They'd be crazy not to practice last week; they knew they still had a chance
Click to expand...

Great question. I suspect they practiced yesterday and today. Probably did have a few days off earlier this week. After playing Friday thru Sunday and into double ot Sunday it was needed either way. Team has been given a second chance and we know anything can happen. Will be interested to see where they end up. Likely either Providence or South Bend.
 
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