Yale Hockey 2010

[Red Cloud]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

they are 8 in the PWR right now. so all they need to do is move up 4. They have the potential to become a number 1 seed. If they continue to win they will.

It really isn't as simple as you make it sound. Trust me. A #1 seed is a longshot, even if they continue to win.

 

[yaledoc]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

I hate to nit-pick here,RC, but a #1 seed is NOT that far-fetched. We are now #4 in the Inside College Hockey (INCH) poll. Given the mixed,albeit net-negative weekend results for St. Cloud and Bemidji, it's not unreasonable to think a #4 ranking is possible later today in both the USCHO AND the USA TODAY polls. Yale has not lost two in-a-row all year, and their only "bad" stretch was way back 11/6 thru 11/19 when they were a palindromic L/T/W/T/L vs. some pretty decent teams. Since 11/19, they are 14-4-1. It's difficult to imagine cracking the sacred triumvirate (Miami, Denver,Wisconsin) prior to the NCAA tourney, but I, for one, would absolutely love another shot at the Badgers...... this time on neutral ice.

 

[BigDEli]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

It's next to impossible for them to get to a #1 seed. There's a huge gap btwn the top 3 in the PWR (Miami, Denver, Wisc.), and Yale at #8. Furthermore, the 3 teams tied for fourth in the PWR have a sizable PWR lead on Yale as well. With their strength of schedule in the mid 30's, and none of their next 6 games against teams in the RPI top 25, closing that gap is really unlikely even if they win out.

But having said that, they have some factors in their favor for staying East anyway. Yale is one of only 2 teams from the east in the top 8 of the PWR (BC is the other, and UNH and Vermont are tied for 9th), so if Yale keeps winning and gets some modest help from the teams ahead of them, it's certainly possible that they get up to 6 in the PWR, in which case they would likely stay east as a 2 seed.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

I hate to nit-pick here,RC, but a #1 seed is NOT that far-fetched. We are now #4 in the Inside College Hockey (INCH) poll. Given the mixed,albeit net-negative weekend results for St. Cloud and Bemidji, it's not unreasonable to think a #4 ranking is possible later today in both the USCHO AND the USA TODAY polls. Yale has not lost two in-a-row all year, and their only "bad" stretch was way back 11/6 thru 11/19 when they were a palindromic L/T/W/T/L vs. some pretty decent teams. Since 11/19, they are 14-4-1. It's difficult to imagine cracking the sacred triumvirate (Miami, Denver,Wisconsin) prior to the NCAA tourney, but I, for one, would absolutely love another shot at the Badgers...... this time on neutral ice.

There is a lot of difference between receiving a top-four ranking in a poll and in the PWR. RC was referring the PWR, not the polls.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

But having said that, they have some factors in their favor for staying East anyway. Yale is one of only 2 teams from the east in the top 8 of the PWR (BC is the other, and UNH and Vermont are tied for 9th), so if Yale keeps winning and gets some modest help from the teams ahead of them, it's certainly possible that they get up to 6 in the PWR, in which case they would likely stay east as a 2 seed.

The only way you really have much control over where you get sent is as a #1 seed. Other than that, you get slotted into the brackets to make them even. If you're the 8th, 9th, or 16th overall seed, you get placed with the #1 overall seed. 7th, 10th, and 15th go with #2. 6th, 11th, and 14th go with #3. 5th, 12th, and 13th go with #4. Some teams are moved around to avoid first round intra-conference matchups.

So unless, realistically, you're in the top 3, you don't have any control over where you get sent. The only real caveat to this is that some teams will draw exceptionally well in certain venues and the committee may move an entire bracket to that venue if they can get away with it to maximize revenue. Yale is not one of those teams.

 

[BigDEli]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

RC, i understand that as a #2 seed Yale has no control over where they play... my point was that as the 5 or 6 seed overall, they'd be paired as a #2 in a region with either the third or fourth #1 seed. And since the top two #1 seeds (2 out of Miami, Denver, Wisc.) are all but assured to be from the west, the third and fourth #1 seed will be sent east by default. As such, Yale would likely stay east. It's a bit speculative I admit, but it's hard to envision a situation where the 1 or 2 overall seed gets shipped to the east.

 

[biggd]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

I don't know if it's been mentioned yet but congrats to the Kearney family. Dennys sister won a gold medal in the womens mogul event Saturday. The Americans first Gold.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

RC, i understand that as a #2 seed Yale has no control over where they play... my point was that as the 5 or 6 seed overall, they'd be paired as a #2 in a region with either the third or fourth #1 seed. And since the top two #1 seeds (2 out of Miami, Denver, Wisc.) are all but assured to be from the west, the third and fourth #1 seed will be sent east by default. As such, Yale would likely stay east. It's a bit speculative I admit, but it's hard to envision a situation where the 1 or 2 overall seed gets shipped to the east.

That isn't necessarily true. The committee is likely to send a #1 seed Denver out east since they will have to fly no matter where they go. A flight is a flight to the NCAA, whether it's to St. Paul or Worcester. That would put a #3 or #4 overall seed of Wisconsin, St. Cloud, or Bemidji in St. Paul since they would not have to fly there, minimizing the total number of #1 seeds who have to fly. Thus, if Yale were the #6 seed overall and were seeded with #3 Wisconsin, they would more than likely end up in St. Paul. This just underscores how non top 3 teams have zero control over where they end up.

 

[BigDEli]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

That isn't necessarily true. The committee is likely to send a #1 seed Denver out east since they will have to fly no matter where they go. A flight is a flight to the NCAA, whether it's to St. Paul or Worcester. That would put a #3 or #4 overall seed of Wisconsin, St. Cloud, or Bemidji in St. Paul since they would not have to fly there, minimizing the total number of #1 seeds who have to fly. Thus, if Yale were the #6 seed overall and were seeded with #3 Wisconsin, they would more than likely end up in St. Paul. This just underscores how non top 3 teams have zero control over where they end up.

...or how little regard the NCAA has for rewarding excellence .

Very good point....I guess I underestimated the flight priority there. anyway, it will be interesting to watch how it all plays out...

 

[klumpmypants]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

That isn't necessarily true. The committee is likely to send a #1 seed Denver out east since they will have to fly no matter where they go. A flight is a flight to the NCAA, whether it's to St. Paul or Worcester. That would put a #3 or #4 overall seed of Wisconsin, St. Cloud, or Bemidji in St. Paul since they would not have to fly there, minimizing the total number of #1 seeds who have to fly. Thus, if Yale were the #6 seed overall and were seeded with #3 Wisconsin, they would more than likely end up in St. Paul. This just underscores how non top 3 teams have zero control over where they end up.

Do you have an example of when this has happened before? I'm willing to believe it has, but can't remember one.

Would it not make more sense for the committee to minimize the total number of teams flying as opposed to the total of #1 seeds flying?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

Do you have an example of when this has happened before? I'm willing to believe it has, but can't remember one.

All the way back to last season.

Would it not make more sense for the committee to minimize the total number of teams flying as opposed to the total of #1 seeds flying?

No, because they are more concerned with bracket integrity, and that would tear up the whole bracket to do that.

 

[klumpmypants]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

All the way back to last season.

I'm looking at the bracket from last year and I don't see it. The top 4 teams in order were: BU, Notre Dame, Denver, and Michigan. BU was placed closest to home in Manchester, then ND closest to home in Grand Rapids. That left Denver and Michigan to go to Minneapolis and Bridgeport. Ann Arbor is basically equidistant between those 2 sites and neither is really driveable. So I don't think you are correct as to last season.

Perhaps you misunderstood me. I wanted an example of when a #1 seed rather than being placed in the next closest remaining regional was made to go further because they would have flown either way.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

Perhaps you misunderstood me. I wanted an example of when a #1 seed rather than being placed in the next closest remaining regional was made to go further because they would have flown either way.

The committee made it crystal clear they wanted to cut down on flights for #1 teams last season. Just because they didn't have to doesn't mean that isn't the plan.

Look, I'm not just talking out of my *** here. I've been doing this for years.

 

[klumpmypants]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

Look, I'm not just talking out of my *** here. I've been doing this for years.

Doing what? Holding yourself out as an expert without presenting evidence to back yourself up. I asked if it had ever happened before. You said last year. You were wrong. You say the committee made it crystal clear last year. How did they do that, if not by actually doing it?

And it doesn't work to say, trust me they are a long shot for a #1 seed. Why should I trust you? Please thrill me with your acumen and explain why you think that if Yale wins all the rest of their games, they still won't be a #1 seed. I know polls have nothing to do with it and its all about the PWR. I also know how that works. So explain it to me like I'm not a 4 year old.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

Doing what? Holding yourself out as an expert without presenting evidence to back yourself up. I asked if it had ever happened before. You said last year. You were wrong. You say the committee made it crystal clear last year. How did they do that, if not by actually doing it?

And it doesn't work to say, trust me they are a long shot for a #1 seed. Why should I trust you? Please thrill me with your acumen and explain why you think that if Yale wins all the rest of their games, they still won't be a #1 seed. I know polls have nothing to do with it and its all about the PWR. I also know how that works. So explain it to me like I'm not a 4 year old.

Goodbye.

I came here to help people understand better the process that goes into the NCAA selection and bracketing. It's not an exact science but it's one that many of us that have followed for many years have a very solid bead on. Why did I do this? Out of the kindness of my own heart - because I want people to understand the process as well as I do so they aren't blindsided down the road when something happens that they don't like, which could lead to disappointment.

If you refuse to believe me, go ahead - in this case, you might as well be wearing pants without a belt. I do my best to be nice to people but if you want to act like a complete jerk, then I'll either give it right back to you or just leave. This had been a fun and, I hope, a learning experience until you came along. Feel free to believe whatever you want. I'm gone. Thank this clown.

 

[Puck Swami]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

I don't know if it's been mentioned yet but congrats to the Kearney family. Dennys sister won a gold medal in the womens mogul event Saturday. The Americans first Gold.

She mentioned her brother plays hockey for Yale on an NBC studio interview.

 

[burgie12]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

And it doesn't work to say, trust me they are a long shot for a #1 seed. Why should I trust you? Please thrill me with your acumen and explain why you think that if Yale wins all the rest of their games, they still won't be a #1 seed. I know polls have nothing to do with it and its all about the PWR. I also know how that works. So explain it to me like I'm not a 4 year old.

I would highly recommend visiting siouxsports.com (it is currently down for me, but appears to be up for everyone else). The menu on the left provides a number of links to various rankings, including RPI, PWR, and KRACH. The PWR page also allows you to go in-depth into the individual comparisons between Team X (Yale) and every other TUC. The RPI page allows you to go in-depth on Team X and see how their RPI will be affected by various wins and losses throughout the rest of the regular season. This allows you to find various comparisons that can be flipped, potentially pushing Yale towards a #1 seed.

I agree with RC that it is unlikely for Yale to get a #1 seed, barring a monumental collapse by 3 different teams ahead of them, mainly because of the ECAC's lack of TUCs and Yale's 0-2 record against Hockey East. But, since I don't have any kind of expertise in this area (didn't start paying attention to PWR until last year), and my favorite predictor tool isn't working right now, I'm not going to pass judgment on their chances.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

I would highly recommend visiting siouxsports.com (it is currently down for me, but appears to be up for everyone else). The menu on the left provides a number of links to various rankings, including RPI, PWR, and KRACH. The PWR page also allows you to go in-depth into the individual comparisons between Team X (Yale) and every other TUC. The RPI page allows you to go in-depth on Team X and see how their RPI will be affected by various wins and losses throughout the rest of the regular season. This allows you to find various comparisons that can be flipped, potentially pushing Yale towards a #1 seed.

I agree with RC that it is unlikely for Yale to get a #1 seed, barring a monumental collapse by 3 different teams ahead of them, mainly because of the ECAC's lack of TUCs and Yale's 0-2 record against Hockey East. But, since I don't have any kind of expertise in this area (didn't start paying attention to PWR until last year), and my favorite predictor tool isn't working right now, I'm not going to pass judgment on their chances.

Good time to learn now because RPI will be involved next year.

 

[yaledoc]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

I don't know if it's been mentioned yet but congrats to the Kearney family. Dennys sister won a gold medal in the womens mogul event Saturday. The Americans first Gold.

It WAS mentioned..... but the more the merrier. A well-placed source tells me the whole team got to watch Hannah's gold medal run on the bus ride home. Denny,of course, didn't need the bus....... he had a front row seat on CLOUD NINE. Oh, and BTW, did any of you catch Hannah's (understandably) exuberant Dad getting tackled by a security guard as he
sprinted to join the raucous celebration? Not really a fair match-up, as back
in the day, Tom was a standout football player at MCGILL, in Montreal,P.Q.
Canada. Way to go Kearneys.

 

[burgie12]

Re: Yale Hockey 2010

So, sioux sports is back up for me. They say that winning out will put their RPI at ~0.5529. Assuming that no other RPI in the nation changes, Yale's RPI will be 6th, behind Miami, Denver, Wisconsin, SCSU, and Colorado College, passing Bemidji, BC, and UMD.

Winning the RPI comparison with Bemidji, BC, and UMD flips those three individual comparisons (Yale's comparison wins gets pushed up to 17). Beating SLU this Friday flips the Vermont comparison (pushing it up to 18).

Of the remaining comparisons that Yale is still losing (CC, DU, Massachusetts, Miami, SCSU, and Wisconsin), the Massachusetts comparison is the only one that can be flipped without winning the RPI battle (Yale is already winning the RPI battle). The comparison against Massachusetts can only be won by having 10 games against TUCs and having a better record. Head-to-head games are not also counted in the TUC comparison, and since Yale has only played 8 games against TUCs right now (including one against Massachusetts), two different teams would have to become a TUC to flip the Massachusetts comparison. Renselaer and SLU are the only teams that Yale has played near the "TUC cliff" right now, and Yale has an 0-3 record against these two teams.

By either of these teams becoming a TUC, Yale would lose the Alaska and BU comparisons, meaning that Yale would actually drop positions by winning the Massachusetts comparison.

Basically, Yale would need to win out, have teams in front of them drop games (to lower their RPI), and root against RPI or SLU becoming a TUC (as soon as Yale gets 10 games against TUCs, they will start to lose comparisons that they had already won with minimal benefit) in order to become a #1 seed. It's just not a likely scenario.