Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio
What's most idiotic about FIFA's use of its own ranking system is how they abandon it when it most suits them.
The qualifications in every single confederation with the exception of CONMEBOL (since it's just a straight double-round robin system they've used for quite some time) utilized the FIFA rankings at some point along the way, in each case separating teams into pots based entirely upon their FIFA ranking at a given time (usually, directly before the draw). That led to byes, pairings, and groupings being determined by an indicator of strength, and ultimately created qualifiers that frequently led to the best teams advancing (with some surprises along the way, as one would expect).
Isn't that what we're looking for? The best teams?
Instead of ranking one pot and then just sorting the rest by confederation, why not just rank all the pots? What a novel concept. Hey, you can even keep the host in the top-ranked pot for the home advantage FIFA so desires, especially since in this case Brazil's FIFA ranking is screwed up due to their exclusion from the qualifying process.
Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland
Pot 2: Netherlands, Italy, England, Chile, United States, Portugal, Greece, Bosnia
Pot 3: Ivory Coast, Croatia, Russia, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Costa Rica
Pot 4: Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras, Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia, Cameroon
Just make some very simple rules: Host is in Group A (so they can play in the opening game), and even though the ban on multiple non-UEFA teams being in the same group is stupid, we can even just say, no more than two UEFA teams in one group. Given all the top ranked teams are UEFA and CONMEBOL, and the tournament is in South America, let's allow two CONMEBOL teams as well. So let's do the draw. Pot 1.
Group A - Brazil
Group B - Colombia
Group C - Argentina
Group D - Switzerland
Group E - Belgium
Group F - Spain
Group G - Uruguay
Group H - Germany
Now, Pot 2.
Group A - Brazil, England
Group B - Colombia, Bosnia
Group C - Argentina, United States
Group D - Switzerland, Chile
Group E - Belgium, Portugal
Group F - Spain, Greece
Group G - Uruguay, Netherlands
Group H - Germany, Italy
Ooh. We've already got three groups with two UEFA teams drawn to them. So we simply now know which groups Croatia, Russia, and France can't now be drawn to. So how do we resolve Pot 3? We break it out with two pots, one of which has Croatia, Russia, and France in it, the other has Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, and Group G in it.
Group A - Brazil, England
Group B - Colombia, Bosnia, Croatia
Group C - Argentina, United States
Group D - Switzerland, Chile, Russia
Group E - Belgium, Portugal
Group F - Spain, Greece
Group G - Uruguay, Netherlands, France
Group H - Germany, Italy
Then, we draw the remaining members of Pot 3, and sort them according to the draw.
Group A - Brazil, England, Ecuador
Group B - Colombia, Bosnia, Croatia
Group C - Argentina, United States
Group D - Switzerland, Chile, Russia
Group E - Belgium, Portugal
Group F - Spain, Greece
Group G - Uruguay, Netherlands, France
Group H - Germany, Italy
Oops! Mexico has been drawn second, which would put them in a group with the United States? Well, just drop them into Group E and draw again for Group C.
Group A - Brazil, England, Ecuador
Group B - Colombia, Bosnia, Croatia
Group C - Argentina, United States, Ghana
Group D - Switzerland, Chile, Russia
Group E - Belgium, Portugal, Mexico
Group F - Spain, Greece, Costa Rica
Group G - Uruguay, Netherlands, France
Group H - Germany, Italy, Ivory Coast
Wow, that was tough. Now, Pot 4.
Group A - Brazil, England, Ecuador, Australia
Group B - Colombia, Bosnia, Croatia, Nigeria
Group C - Argentina, United States, Ghana, Japan
Group D - Switzerland, Chile, Russia, Algeria
Group E - Belgium, Portugal, Mexico, Cameroon
Group F - Spain, Greece, Costa Rica, Iran
Group G - Uruguay, Netherlands, France, Honduras
Group H - Germany, Italy, Ivory Coast, South Korea
Honduras was drawn for Group F, so they just get slotted down into Group G instead to avoid having them paired with Costa Rica.
I give you the 2014 World Cup, in all its terrible equity. Some groups still look more daunting than others. But that's what you get when it's a draw.
Our draw still sucks (because, Ghana). But at least it's by the numbers instead of just arbitrarily being a group of death just because the US is tossed in the weakest pot.
