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World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
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Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
Come on Panama!

(I'm cheering for whatever screws Mexico)
Click to expand...

Wait, we have to declare that? I thought this was a given. The US is going to make the World Cup no matter what happens in this game, I figured everyone wants Panama to win this game just because it hurts Mexico.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
Come on Panama!

(I'm cheering for whatever screws Mexico)
Click to expand...

I hear you. A draw would be ideal. USA would clinch, Honduras would go up 3 points on Mexico/Panama for 3rd, and Panama would go even with Mexico for 4th (and tied at -2 GD). It would make the Panama-Mexico tilt in October even juicier.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I'll do another one upon conclusion of Panama/Honduras, but in case anyone is antsy...

CONCACAF Numbers:

--- In - 16+ () ---
USA 16 - 22 [1-4]
CRC 15 - 21 [1-4]
--- Playoff - 13+ () ---
HON 10 - 19 [1-6]
MEX 8 - 14 [3-6]
PAN 7 - 16 [1-6]
--- Eligible - 11 () ---
JAM 4 - 10 [4-6]
--- Out - 9 () ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
CRC - @HON, MEX
USA - JAM, @PAN
HON - PAN, CRC, @JAM
MEX - PAN, @CRC
PAN - @HON, @MEX, USA
JAM - @USA, HON

--

RANKINGS (high):
Jamaica cannot catch Costa Rica nor the USA. Because Honduras and Mexico both have to play Panama, they cannot get to 3rd place on 10 points. They are able to get into 4th outright if they win out, Honduras beats Panama, Mexico and Panama draw, and both the USA and Costa Rica their other game(s). Mexico cannot catch the USA or Costa Rica. There are several ways for Mexico to attain 3rd outright. Panama can get into a tie for 1st if both Panama and Jamaica win out and the USA and Costa Rica lose out. All the others have several ways to get first outright.

RANKINGS (low):
Costa Rica and the USA cannot drop below Jamaica nor Mexico, so they are both guaranteed at least a playoff. If Mexico beats Panama, and the obvious win/lose for Jamaica and Honduras, there are several ways for Honduras to be in a tie for last. The other three teams have several ways to finish last outright.

Thresholds:
In (16+): In order for 16 to require a playoff, it would involve a tie in several methods, but with Panama and at least Honduras being involved in said tie.

Playoff (13+): Assume Mexico gets to 14; the highest Panama can get is 13. It is possible for Honduras to tie for 4th at that level, making 13+ the threshold.

Eligible (11): If Honduras loses out, there is no way to get a tie for 3rd at 10 points because of the fact that Mexico still has to play Panama. There are several ways for 11 to be 3rd place outright, so that remains the eligible threshold (think "home eligible" from Todd's method).

Out (9): Because Mexico plays Panama, you cannot be eligible for a playoff on 8 points. There are several ways to do it at 9 points, assuming that Mexico/Panama is a draw and then they both lose the other two games. Jamaica could then lose out and you'd get 4th at 9.
 
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Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

And now for an update after Honduras/Panama.

CONCACAF Numbers:

USA 16 - 22 [1-3]
CRC 15 - 21 [1-3]
--- In - 14+ () ---
--- Playoff - 12+ () ---
HON 11 - 17 [1-5]
MEX 8 - 14 [3-6]
PAN 8 - 14 [3-6]
--- Eligible - 11 () ---
JAM 4 - 10 [4-6]
--- Out - 9 () ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
CRC - @HON, MEX
USA - JAM, @PAN
HON - CRC, @JAM
MEX - PAN, @CRC
PAN - @MEX, USA
JAM - @USA, HON

--

RANKINGS (high):
Jamaica cannot catch Costa Rica, the USA, or Honduras. They are able to get into 4th outright if they win out, Mexico and Panama draw, and both the USA and Costa Rica win their final game. Panama and Mexico cannot catch the USA or Costa Rica. There are several ways for each to attain 3rd outright. All the others have several ways to get first outright.

RANKINGS (low):
Costa Rica and the USA cannot drop below Jamaica, Panama, nor Mexico, so they are both going to Brazil. Honduras cannot finish in last, but there are several ways for them to finish 5th outright. The other three teams have several ways to finish last outright.

Thresholds:
In (14+): In order for 14 to require a playoff, it would involve a tie with Honduras and either Mexico or Panama.

Playoff (12+): The only way to do this is for Mexico and Panama to tie, and then each wins their final game, along with Honduras picking up at least one point somewhere.

Eligible (11): There are several ways for 11 to be 3rd place outright (involving a tie between Mexico and Panama), so that remains the eligible threshold (think "home eligible" from Todd's method).

Out (9): Because Mexico plays Panama, you cannot be eligible for a playoff on 8 points. There are several ways to do it at 9 points, assuming that Mexico/Panama is a draw and then they both lose the other two games. Jamaica could then lose out and you'd get 4th at 9.
 
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Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Jamaica making the climb into fourth would make me happy, as would Panama qualifying over Mexico.

A week I would've said Mexico would stomp Panama next month, now, after watching them flat out give up tonight, I wonder if they can even get a point.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Jimjamesak said:
Jamaica making the climb into fourth would make me happy, as would Panama qualifying over Mexico.

A week I would've said Mexico would stomp Panama next month, now, after watching them flat out give up tonight, I wonder if they can even get a point.
Click to expand...

Gotta wonder if New Zealand wants to move their home match to a more suitable location like Calgary.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Patman said:
Gotta wonder if New Zealand wants to move their home match to a more suitable location like Calgary.
Click to expand...
New Zealand will be quite happy in New Zealand as they host the second leg in that playoff. Mexico has looked like crap traveling within CONCACAF, imagine them traveling to New Zealand a week between games.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Jimjamesak said:
Jamaica making the climb into fourth would make me happy, as would Panama qualifying over Mexico.
Click to expand...

Technically, Panama is now fourth and Mexico fifth. While they are even on goal differential, Panama has scored more goals.

Mexico now hosts Panama (Oct 11) and then travels to Costa Rica (Oct 15), while Panama then hosts the US. Interesting series of possibilities here, eh?
 
Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Hopkinja said:
Should the US throw the game in Panama City just to keep Mexico out? ;)
Click to expand...

May you be struck dumb for even suggesting throwing a game.

Americans play to win all the time. That's why we're Americans.
 
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