World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

[FreshFish]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Grant Wahl's projections of the Oct 17 FIFA rankings that will determine the top 8 seeds.

http://soccer.si.com/2013/10/08/201...tting-top-eight-seed/?sct=hp_t2_a12&eref=sihp

He thinks Croatia will squeeze past Belgium, there will be 4 (!) CONMEBOL teams seeded, and US will actually drop from 13 to 14 despite projected wins against Jamaica and Panama.

While it looks like Uruguay is "on the bubble," they will face Jordan in a home-and-away play-in series.

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Grant Wahl's projections of the Oct 17 FIFA rankings that will determine the top 8 seeds.

http://soccer.si.com/2013/10/08/201...tting-top-eight-seed/?sct=hp_t2_a12&eref=sihp

He thinks Croatia will squeeze past Belgium, there will be 4 (!) CONMEBOL teams seeded, and US will actually drop from 13 to 14 despite projected wins against Jamaica and Panama.

While it looks like Uruguay is "on the bubble," they will face Jordan in a home-and-away play-in series.

So, should Uruguay run up the score on Jordan like a SEC team with a Sunbelt school??

 

[burgie12]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

So, should Uruguay run up the score on Jordan like a SEC team with a Sunbelt school??

A) Margin of victory isn't factored into FIFA Rankings
B) Those games will be played in November, after the Official Rankings for the World Cup seeds have been released next Thursday
C) The first game will be in Jordan, followed by the game at CONMEBOL. The winner of the Intercontinental Playoff is determined by total goals. So, they could lose in Jordan 5-0 and still advance as long as they win by at least 6 at home.

Really, if you're on the road for the first leg, your only purpose is to survive, then win by enough goals at home to advance. It's a different story for the teams that are home first. Then, you want to run up the score at home so that you can just coast through the game on the road.

Whomever finishes 4th in the Hex will be home first against New Zealand.

PS I'm most interested in seeing how UEFA's Group B shakes out. Denmark (in 3rd) has Malta and Italy at home. Italy's already locked up the group and Malta's a guaranteed win. Bulgaria (in 2nd by a point) is at Armenia (who hasn't yet won at home) and at home against the Czech Republic (who's in 5th in the group). Either of those teams could still easily miss out on the upcoming UEFA Playoffs because they finished in last of the 9 groups (no matter which you list as 2nd in the group right now, they're 9th of 9).

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

A) Margin of victory isn't factored into FIFA Rankings
Really, if you're on the road for the first leg, your only purpose is to survive, then win by enough goals at home to advance. It's a different story for the teams that are home first. Then, you want to run up the score at home so that you can just coast through the game on the road.

You're not taking away goals into consideration, but they're kind of a big deal.

When you open at home, the first priority is to win, the second priority is to get a shutout so you have no away goals allowed. Then, after those are satisfied, you run up the score. Granted, if you win 8 - 2 at home, it's probably a big enough margin that you won't be sweating the two away goals, but 2 - 0 is much better than 4 - 2.

When you open on the road, yes, you want to survive, but getting at least one away goal is a big deal because it gives you more to work with at home. With an away goal, an aggregate tie where you get a shutout at home puts you through. In particular, a 0 - 0 result is not a very good one because it makes it difficult to advance with a draw in the home leg.

 

[Priceless]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

You're not taking away goals into consideration, but they're kind of a big deal.

When you open at home, the first priority is to win, the second priority is to get a shutout so you have no away goals allowed. Then, after those are satisfied, you run up the score. Granted, if you win 8 - 2 at home, it's probably a big enough margin that you won't be sweating the two away goals, but 2 - 0 is much better than 4 - 2.

When you open on the road, yes, you want to survive, but getting at least one away goal is a big deal because it gives you more to work with at home. With an away goal, an aggregate tie where you get a shutout at home puts you through. In particular, a 0 - 0 result is not a very good one because it makes it difficult to advance with a draw in the home leg.

Also, if you play the second leg on the road, if the game does to Extra Time and you score a goal, the home team needs to score two.

 

[burgie12]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

You're not taking away goals into consideration, but they're kind of a big deal.

When you open at home, the first priority is to win, the second priority is to get a shutout so you have no away goals allowed. Then, after those are satisfied, you run up the score. Granted, if you win 8 - 2 at home, it's probably a big enough margin that you won't be sweating the two away goals, but 2 - 0 is much better than 4 - 2.

When you open on the road, yes, you want to survive, but getting at least one away goal is a big deal because it gives you more to work with at home. With an away goal, an aggregate tie where you get a shutout at home puts you through. In particular, a 0 - 0 result is not a very good one because it makes it difficult to advance with a draw in the home leg.

I knew I was omitting the away goal rule. I thought his question was more in reference to "Should Uruguay run up the score against Jordan in order to get a seed in the World Cup?" And I was trying to outline that not only are the CONMEBOL-Jordan games not being factored into the rankings that were going to be used for determining the seeded teams, but also that FIFA doesn't account for margin of victory in their rankings.

And, then, yea, I expanded on that and forgot to mention away goals, which is kinda important. But, my original point was still valid

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Anyone going to Kansas City to see the game? A friend and I are contemplating but still a bunch of details to work out.

 

[unofan]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Anyone going to Kansas City to see the game? A friend and I are contemplating but still a bunch of details to work out.

Was going to, but couldn't get tickets through any of the presales and am not willing to spend $100 for a $25 face value ticket in the end zone.

Instead, going to the Iowa Wild opener on Saturday.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Was going to, but couldn't get tickets through any of the presales and am not willing to spend $100 for a $25 face value ticket in the end zone.

Instead, going to the Iowa Wild opener on Saturday.

Tickets have come down for some, to $75 a ticket, thats the only reason I'm thinking about it...some on stubhub are even assigned seats along the sideline, not GA in the endzones...

 

[Jimjamesak]

Tickets have come down for some, to $75 a ticket, thats the only reason I'm thinking about it...some on stubhub are even assigned seats along the sideline, not GA in the endzones...

Honestly I'd go if you have the chance. WCQ games don't happen very often. Granted KC seems to have become a lock for a Hex game but you never know if in the future if you'll have a shot tickets.

 

[Priceless]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Read a piece today about a possible joint bid for the 2026 World Cup by the USA and Mexico. Can't paste the link on this thing but it was on the MLS website. This sounds like such a horrible idea. We don't need a co-host, but if we have one why not Canada?

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Read a piece today about a possible joint bid for the 2026 World Cup by the USA and Mexico. Can't paste the link on this thing but it was on the MLS website. This sounds like such a horrible idea. We don't need a co-host, but if we have one why not Canada?

CONCACAF politics?

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Honestly I'd go if you have the chance. WCQ games don't happen very often. Granted KC seems to have become a lock for a Hex game but you never know if in the future if you'll have a shot tickets.

Tickets are bought, plans have been made. USA!

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Read a piece today about a possible joint bid for the 2026 World Cup by the USA and Mexico. Can't paste the link on this thing but it was on the MLS website. This sounds like such a horrible idea. We don't need a co-host, but if we have one why not Canada?

Why Mexico? We're Egypt and Syria busy?

 

[Priceless]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Why Mexico? We're Egypt and Syria busy?

Our diplomatic relations with Mexico aren't QUITE that bad. The feeling is a joint bid might have more luck given that FIFA is so vehemently anti-anything-USA. They were chosen because, unlike our neighbors to the north, they're soccer-mad. And as Craig points out, CONCACAF politics. Hopefully it doesn't gain any traction. The USA is quite capable of hosting the World Cup on its own, thankyouverymuch.

 

[MountieBoyOz]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Our diplomatic relations with Mexico aren't QUITE that bad. The feeling is a joint bid might have more luck given that FIFA is so vehemently anti-anything-USA. They were chosen because, unlike our neighbors to the north, they're soccer-mad. And as Craig points out, CONCACAF politics. Hopefully it doesn't gain any traction. The USA is quite capable of hosting the World Cup on its own, thankyouverymuch.

Anti anything English-speaking. Let's not forget the Brits getting screwed constantly.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Anti anything English-speaking. Let's not forget the Brits getting screwed constantly.

Given that Australia was originally settled by a bunch of ex-cons, maybe they could host one?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Going into this week's CONCACAF qualifier games, just a little review on where we are:

CONCACAF Numbers:

USA 16 - 22 [1-3]
CRC 15 - 21 [1-3]
--- In - 14+ () ---
--- Playoff - 12+ () ---
HON 11 - 17 [1-5]
MEX 8 - 14 [3-6]
PAN 8 - 14 [3-6]
--- Eligible - 11 () ---
JAM 4 - 10 [4-6]
--- Out - 9 () ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
CRC - @HON, MEX
USA - JAM, @PAN
HON - CRC, @JAM
MEX - PAN, @CRC
PAN - @MEX, USA
JAM - @USA, HON

--

RANKINGS (high):
Jamaica cannot catch Costa Rica, the USA, or Honduras. They are able to get into 4th outright if they win out, Mexico and Panama draw, and both the USA and Costa Rica win their final game. Panama and Mexico cannot catch the USA or Costa Rica. There are several ways for each to attain 3rd outright. All the others have several ways to get first outright.

RANKINGS (low):
Costa Rica and the USA cannot drop below Jamaica, Panama, nor Mexico, so they are both going to Brazil. Honduras cannot finish in last, but there are several ways for them to finish 5th outright. The other three teams have several ways to finish last outright.

Thresholds:
In (14+): In order for 14 to require a playoff, it would involve a tie with Honduras and either Mexico or Panama.

Playoff (12+): The only way to do this is for Mexico and Panama to tie, and then each wins their final game, along with Honduras picking up at least one point somewhere.

Eligible (11): There are several ways for 11 to be 3rd place outright (involving a tie between Mexico and Panama), so that remains the eligible threshold (think "home eligible" from Todd's method).

Out (9): Because Mexico plays Panama, you cannot be eligible for a playoff on 8 points. There are several ways to do it at 9 points, assuming that Mexico/Panama is a draw and then they both lose the other two games. Jamaica could then lose out and you'd get 4th at 9.

 

[jmh]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Really, if you're on the road for the first leg, your only purpose is to survive, then win by enough goals at home to advance. It's a different story for the teams that are home first. Then, you want to run up the score at home so that you can just coast through the game on the road.

And then it's a different story again if you're Uruguay playing Jordan and you could play your third string and still win easily.

 

[CLS]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Why Mexico? We're Egypt and Syria busy?

Perhaps Mexico has better channels through which bribes can be funneled to FIFA officials.