Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?
One point on CONCACAF being due to host a world cup, I don't think it's that simple. You have to take into account how many viable hosts there are in CONCACAF compared to UEFA. Undoubtedly there are way more in UEFA than CONCACAF.
Well, the rules as they are currently written (and I freely admit that they could easily be changed), would prevent any UEFA or AFC country from getting the 2026 World Cup. That leaves CAF, OFC, CONMEBOL, and CONCACAF as options.
There are few viable options in CAF. Egypt may be the best situated to host, but with the 2022 Cup being played so close by in Qatar, I don't see that happening. Morocco was the runner-up for hosting in 2010, so they may also have a shot at getting the cup, but with South Africa recently hosting, that is still probably a long shot. My guess at %-wise chance that CAF hosts in 2026: <5%.
In the OFC, the options are even thinner, as basically New Zealand is the only real possibility to host. Obviously a lot can change by 2015 (when FIFA is rumored to select the hosts for 2026 and 2030), but I just don't see this having a strong chance. My guess at %-wise chance that OFC hosts in 2026: <1%.
CONMEBOL is always a possibility. Pretty much any of the major countries in South America could host. The biggest factors weighing against South America are that Brazil hosted in 2014, and that there is a movement to have the 100th Anniversary Cup back in Uruguay (potentially a joint bid w/Argentina) in 2030. Given that, my guess at %-wise chance that CONMEBOL hosts in 2026: <10%.
That leaves CONCACAF. I could easily see Canada getting the Cup, especially if the 2015 Women's World Cup goes well. That being said, the giant in the pool is the United States. I would think that any bid by the USA would immediately be the favorite. Also, I could easily see the USA joining with Canada (potentially even Mexico) on a bid. While the smaller countries likely stand very little chance, and are not really viable hosts, all one has to do is look at Qatar to see an example of a country that has no business hosting a Cup - but nonetheless is slated to host a Cup. The question for the small countries in CONCACAF becomes how much money do they have to bribe? Either way, unless the rules change, my guess at %-wise chance that CONCACAF hosts in 2026: >85%.
I certainly agree that UEFA has a ton of hosting options, including dozens of joint-bid opportunities. England is due. A Spain-Portugal joint bid was the runner-up for 2018. I would imagine a Scandinavian joint-bid would be appealing. By 2026 it will have been nearly a half-century since Italy last hosted (although, I'm skeptical that Italy would get a third Cup before England would get a second). Eastern Europe has possibilities (think Turkey or Greece), but I think their chances were hurt when Russia was selected for 2018 (and Qatar in 2022). The question really becomes, is FIFA willing to wait until 2034 (assuming a CONMEBOL 2030 Cup) for another UEFA host? I have my doubts, but until they change the rules, they won't be hosting in 2026.