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World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

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Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

So...is Donovan hurt? retired? Just curious why he isn't on the roster. Haven't followed this qualifying round as much as I normally do. May try to make it to KC for the Jamaica game, though.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Don't count your eggs before they hatch, but we're up 2-0 on Panama late in the 2nd half.

If this results holds, the Hex table will look like this:

United States (10 pts., 5 GP, 3-1-1)
Costa Rica (8 pts., 5 GP, 2-2-1)
Mexico (8 pts., 6 GP, 1-5-0)
Honduras (7 pts., 5 GP, 2-1-2)
Panama (5 pts., 5 GP, 1-3-1)
Jamaica (2 pts., 6 GP, 0-2-4)

Honest question... is it possible that Mexico finishes fourth and has to play New Zealand to get into the World Cup? Remaining schedules for each team:

US (Hon, @CR, Mex, Jam, @Pan)
CR (Pan, @US, @Jam, @Hon, Mex)
Hon (@US, @Mex, Pan, CR, @Jam)
Mex (Hon, @US, Pan, @CR)

Everyone in the top four has one game left against each other and one against Panama. But Mexico has already played their last game against bottom-feeder Jamaica AND their two toughest remaining opponents are going to be hosting them.

It's not that likely that Mexico doesn't come alive in those last four games and give us our dream of a gigantic Mexican failure by the end of October, but a man can dream.
 
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Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

It's possible but only if Mexico stumbles and Honduras makes a run. But look at HON next two games, @USA @MEX. Not very easy.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

FWIW, I'm watching the Mariners game here on TV, they went to an in-game break to show highlights of the soccer game.

The world is changing. :)
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Does Mexico face some sort of FIFA punishment for the unruly fan behavior vs. Costa Rica?
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

So...is Donovan hurt? retired? Just curious why he isn't on the roster. Haven't followed this qualifying round as much as I normally do. May try to make it to KC for the Jamaica game, though.

Donovan hasn't been on the roster for awhile, ever since he started his sabbatical last year. Klinsman wants to see him work his way back into shape first, and he's not there yet. The way Zusi has been playing lately, if Donovan eventually does make the roster it might be as a substitute.

The players are developing a nice chemistry without him and you don't want to disrupt that lightly.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

The best way for Mexico to have issues is if Jamaica packs it in and doesn't win again. If you assume that than everyone has 4 games left with Mexico in 5th. With that assumption you also have the top 5 teams playing each other once. Costa Rica would have the most home games left (3) followed by USA, Mexico and Honduras (2) with Panama only having 1 left.

With the Jamaica assumption here would be the standings:
USA 4-1-1 13 pts
CRC 3-1-2 11 pts
HON 3-2-1 10 pts
PAN 2-1-3 9 pts
MEX 1-0-5 8 pts
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

The best way for Mexico to have issues is if Jamaica packs it in and doesn't win again. If you assume that than everyone has 4 games left with Mexico in 5th. With that assumption you also have the top 5 teams playing each other once. Costa Rica would have the most home games left (3) followed by USA, Mexico and Honduras (2) with Panama only having 1 left.

With the Jamaica assumption here would be the standings:
USA 4-1-1 13 pts
CRC 3-1-2 11 pts
HON 3-2-1 10 pts
PAN 2-1-3 9 pts
MEX 1-0-5 8 pts

I'm not quite sure I follow. Am I missing something?

Right now, USA has 10 points at 3-1-1 (2 home wins, one road win, one road loss, one road tie). They / we play Honduras next Tuesday in Salt Lake City. Only one of these two teams can win that game.

Similarly with Costa Rica - Panama: they play each other next week. Only one of them can win that game.


Now, if Honduras beats US next week by two goals or less (bite your tongue!) and Panama beats Costa Rica, then US and Honduras would each have 10 points with US in first by goal differential, Panama would be third with 9 points, Costa Rica and Mexico would have 8 points with Costa Rica in 4th by goal differential.

I don't like the first part of that scenario, I'd rather the US won even if it helps Mexico.




Hmm...our first home game was in Denver and our third home game in SLC? Is this coincidence, or are we scheduling games at altitude against teams from sea level (Denver vs Costa Rica, SLC vs Honduras)?
 
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Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I'm not quite sure I follow. Am I missing something?

Right now, USA has 10 points at 3-1-1 (2 home wins, one road win, one road loss, one road tie). They / we play Honduras next Tuesday in Salt Lake City. Only one of these two teams can win that game.

Similarly with Costa Rica - Panama: they play each other next week. Only one of them can win that game.


Now, if Honduras beats US next week by two goals or less (bite your tongue!) and Panama beats Costa Rica, then US and Honduras would each have 10 points with US in first by goal differential, Panama would be third with 9 points, Costa Rica and Mexico would have 8 points with Costa Rica in 4th by goal differential.

I don't like the first part of that scenario, I'd rather the US won even if it helps Mexico.




Hmm...our first home game was in Denver and our third home game in SLC? Is this coincidence, or are we scheduling games at altitude against teams from sea level (Denver vs Costa Rica, SLC vs Honduras)?
Those standings are assuming Jamaica continues to suck and doesn't win again in the Hex. Is it really that hard to follow the ASSUMPTION I've made that I called out as an ASSUMPTION 3 different times in my post?
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Those standings are assuming Jamaica continues to suck and doesn't win again in the Hex. Is it really that hard to follow the ASSUMPTION I've made that I called out as an ASSUMPTION 3 different times in my post?

No, that part was perfectly clear. Instead, I was asking how you had both teams winning the same game even though they were playing each other head-to-head.

Right now, USA has 10 points and Honduras 7. You showed USA with 13 points and Honduras with 10 but they play each other next week.

Right now, Costa Rica has 8 points and Panama 6. You showed Costa Rica with 11 points and Panama with 9 but they play each other next week.

By the time the entire round of qualifiers is over, each team will have played 10 games total. Right now, Mexico and Jamaica have played 6 games while the other four have played 5. By the end of next week, everyone will have played 6 and everyone will have four games left.
 
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Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

No, that part was perfectly clear. Instead, I was asking how you had both teams winning the same game even though they were playing each other head-to-head.

Right now, USA has 10 points and Honduras 7. You showed USA with 13 points and Honduras with 10 but they play each other next week.

Right now, Costa Rica has 8 points and Panama 6. You showed Costa Rica with 11 points and Panama with 9 but they play each other next week.
The standings are after JAMAICA has lost all of its games left despite the fact that isn't chronologically possible thats why it says, "With the Jamaica assumption here would be the standings:"
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

The standings are after JAMAICA has lost all of its games left despite the fact that isn't chronologically possible thats why it says, "With the Jamaica assumption here would be the standings:"

After next week's games are done, we can project "what happens if...." for the remaining four to see best/worst case for various parties. Everyone would have to have totals that add up to 10 games in all, taking into account remaining head to head (your projected totals added up to six which would be potential results after next week, not after the entire round).

Naturally I want to see USA qualify in the top 3, and I think it would be pretty cool for Costa Rica and Panama to get the other two automatic spots. Let Mexico and Honduras battle for the 4th place play-in slot against New Zealand (the Oceania region winner).

Mexico could in theory be as low as 5th in the group after next week, just as you stated; it's merely that the path to get there needed a tweak.
 
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Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I've gotta side with Shirtless here. I thought it was clear how he formed his theoretical table assuming that all of Jamaica's games would be losses.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I've gotta side with Shirtless here. I thought it was clear how he formed his theoretical table assuming that all of Jamaica's games would be losses.

There are ten games total and he had each team having played six. He also had teams who are playing head-to-head both winning the same game.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

One thing to factor in is a team qualifying with a game to spare and packing it in for that last game.

I don't know about Mexico, they should be better but it seems they haven't comprehended the fact that the others in CONCACAF are better than they thought.

It'll be interesting to see what happens at the Gold Cup.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

There are ten games total and he had each team having played six. He also had teams who are playing head-to-head both winning the same game.
I have each team having played all there games against JAMAICA and having 4 remaining games left to show that if Jamaica packs it in and doesn't win again Mexico is at a disadvantage.

Does this help make the standings I posted make more sense to you:

USA 4-1-1 13 pts
CRC 3-1-2 11 pts
HON 3-2-1 10 pts
PAN 2-1-3 9 pts
MEX 1-0-5 8 pts
JAM 0-8-2 2 pts

This is for all games currently completed and assumes JAMAICA loses on 9/6 to Panama, 9/10 to Costa Rica, 10/11 to USA and 10/15 to Honduras.

I don't know how many times I can explain this before you just don't get what the JAMAICA ASSUMPTION is.
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I have each team having played all there games against JAMAICA and having 4 remaining games left to show that if Jamaica packs it in and doesn't win again Mexico is at a disadvantage.

Does this help make the standings I posted make more sense to you:

USA 4-1-1 13 pts
CRC 3-1-2 11 pts
HON 3-2-1 10 pts
PAN 2-1-3 9 pts
MEX 1-0-5 8 pts
JAM 0-8-2 2 pts

This is for all games currently completed and assumes JAMAICA loses on 9/6 to Panama, 9/10 to Costa Rica, 10/11 to USA and 10/15 to Honduras.

I don't know how many times I can explain this before you just don't get what the JAMAICA ASSUMPTION is.

But what about Jamaica?
 
Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I have each team having played all there games against JAMAICA and having 4 remaining games left to show that if Jamaica packs it in and doesn't win again Mexico is at a disadvantage.

Does this help make the standings I posted make more sense to you:

USA 4-1-1 13 pts [right now, USA is 3-1-1 10 pts; with HON next]
CRC 3-1-2 11 pts [right now, CRC is 2-1-2 8 pts; with PAN next]
HON 3-2-1 10 pts [right now, HON is 2-2-1 7 pts; with USA next]
PAN 2-1-3 9 pts [right now, PAN is 1-1-3 6 pts; with CRC next]
MEX 1-0-5 8 pts [where they stand right now]
JAM 0-8-2 2 pts [where they stand right now]

This is for all games currently completed and assumes JAMAICA loses on 9/6 to Panama, 9/10 to Costa Rica, 10/11 to USA and 10/15 to Honduras.

I don't know how many times I can explain this before you just don't get what the JAMAICA ASSUMPTION is.

what are your projected final standings after each team finishes all ten of their matches, assuming Jamaica loses every game from here on out?

You only show each team having played six games, not ten. that is where I can't follow you. Your standings are impossible if you are only talking about the first six games, because US plays Honduras and Costa Rica plays Panama, and if you are only projecting the standings after the first six games are completed, you have all four of those teams winning their next game.

You say "it is for all games currently completed" but it is not; US, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama have only completed five games, not six. (see inserted comments in [ ] in quote above).

Jamaica doesn't play another game, and neither does Mexico, until after the other four play one more game first.

so, in your scenario, if jamaica loses its remaining four games, how do the other five teams fare once all ten games have been completed?


BTW, I do agree with you that there are plenty of scenarios in which Mexico could be in big trouble. Three 0-0 games at home is no way to qualify!
 
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