Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!
Europe group by group:
Group One
Alive for first: Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Hungary
Denmark are in the driver's seat, up 3 on Sweden, and two home matches left (Sweden and Hungary). Should Sweden win at Denmark on the next matchday, they will be equal going into the final day and a home game against Albania. Denmark has a large GD edge at the moment, also. Should Denmark beat Sweden, they will clinch the group. Even a tie could keep slim chances alive for the winner of Hungary @ Portugal.
Alive for second: Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Hungary
Sweden has a two point edge over Portugal and Hungary, but that trip to Copenhagen is left. Portugal hosts Hungary, giving them a big leg up. Also helpful? Portugal still has Malta at home. If Denmark falls to Sweden at home, and Portugal wins at home against Hungary, you'd have to imagine they'd be nervous in Copenhagen with Portugal able to name their score against Malta on the last day. Sweden, if they lose at Denmark, and Portugal beats Hungary at home, would likely be out.
Group Two
Alive for first: Switzerland, Greece, Latvia, Israel
While Israel are technically still alive, a Swiss win at Luxembourg in the next round will eliminate them. Switzerland has a three point lead on both Greece and Lativa, but assuming that win at Luxembourg, only the team that wins (not ties) that match in Athens will still be alive for first. Even then, they will need Switzerland to not win their last match against Israel in Basel.
Alive for second: Switzerland, Greece, Latvia, Israel
Assuming we can ignore the Swiss, Greece and Latvia have a two point edge on Israel. Israel hosts Moldova, which while not guaranteed, lets assume Israel will win. A winner in the Greek/Latvian match would give either team the edge over Israel as Greece hosts Luxembourg in the final match, and Latvia hosts Moldova. If Israel wins and Greece and Latvia tie, all three would be tied going into the final match but Israel would have by far the hardest matchup (@ Switzerland, although they may dial it down having qualified in the event of a Greek/Latvian tie).
Group 3
Alive for first: Slovakia, Slovenia
Slovakia holds a five point lead on Slovenia with two matches left, and host Slovenia in the next match. Slovenia needs to win that match and hope Poland beats Slovakia in the final match in Poland. Slovenia finishes at San Marino.
Alive for second: Slovakia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Czech Republic, Poland
Goodness gracious this is messy. The only thing for sure is that the Slovaks can not finish worse than second. Should they lose to both Slovenia and Poland, they can still only be caught by Slovenia. Slovenia is in the driver's seat, giving them their 17 points with a victory over San Marino. That means that Northern Ireland and Poland can do no better than tie Slovenia (and Slovenia can name their score vs. San Marino), but the Czechs can still pass them and end on 18 with wins over N. Ireland and Poland both at home. So, even the Slovenes can't feel very safe right now with that game at Slovakia looming and the Czechs not having to travel.
Group Four
Alive for first: Germany, Russia
One point separates these teams, Germany leading, but also traveling to Moscow in the next round. A Germany win there would wrap things up, but assuming that doesn't happen, Germany hosts Finland and Russia goes to Azerbaijan.
Alive for second: Germany, Russia
See above. Neither can be caught by third place Finland. What a weak group.
Group Five
Alive for first: Spain, Bosnia
Assuming Spain holds on against Estonia (leading 1-0, 64th minute), they qualify. A tie keeps Bosnia alive, but they would have to win out (@ Estonia, v. Spain) and hope Spain loses out (@ Armenia, @ Bosnia), plus win on GD. A Spain loss, and they would still need help from Armenia. An Armenian tie would keep Bosnia alive to tie Spain on the last day.
Alive for second: Spain, Bosnia, Turkey
Forgetting Spain (who can't fall below second, and it won't be an issue), Turkey needs help. If Bosnia wins at Estonia, they clinch second. If Bosnia ties at Estonia, Turkey stays alive but would need to win in Belgium to draw within two points. That opens up the door, as Bosnia will have a tough match in Sarajevo against Spain while Turkey hosts Armenia. If Turkey loses in Belgium, they are out. If Turkey ties in Belgium, they are still alive if Estonia beats Bosnia, but they would need to beat Armenia while Bosnia loses to Spain.
Group Six
Alive for first: England.
Alive for second: Croatia, Ukraine.
Ukraine has a game in hand, but trail by two points. They host England next round. Win, lose, or tie, they stay mathematically alive. Ukraine ends at Andorra while Croatia travels to Kazakhstan. Essentially, everything rides on what Ukraine does against England. A win, and they look good for second. A tie or a loss, and odds are Croatia is seemingly set.
Group Seven
Alive for first: Serbia, France
Serbia could have ended things today in Belgrade against 10 man France, but couldn't get the win. If Serbia win against Romania in Belgrade, they are through. With France hosting the Faroes next round, a Serbia-Romania tie would put France within two heading into the final matchday, while a Romania win has France within a point. There, Serbia is at Lithuania and France hosts Austria. With that Lithuania game looming (probably a win), Serbia should be through.
Alive for second: Serbia, France, Austria
Austria cannot catch Serbia, who are at least in the playoffs. Austria can catch France, but it would involve the French not winning at home against the Faroes, so let's not delve into it.
Group Eight
Alive for first: Italy, Ireland
Italy travels to Dublin needing only a draw to clinch a berth in South Africa. Should Ireland win, they would still need Cyprus to get at least a point in Italy on the final matchday. Not happening.
Alive for second: Italy, Ireland, Bulgaria
Let's forget Italy. Bulgaria needs Italy to beat Ireland, while Bulgaria beats Cyprus away. Bulgaria would then need Montenegro to at least tie in Ireland while Bulgaria beats Georgia at home. Unlikely.
Group Nine
Alive for first: Netherlands
Alive for second: Norway
Norway ends the group in second place, but it doesn't matter. No second place team will finish with less than 16 points.