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World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

As we WeWantMore posted, I was talking about expansion thinning the limited talent pool too far. MLS has a limited pool of recognizable names. If four or five of these guys are on the same team, that can be marketed, but we are reaching the point where each franchise only has one or two recognizable players. In the long term Kyle Beckerman can't carry a franchise by himself. Thinning the talent also limits your major TV access. Donovon, Beckham and Buddle all on the same team will garner some network TV interest that any of the three alone cannot. The more you expand, the less quality on the field, the less access you'll have to national media.

What does the talent pool have to do with bankruptcy? Sure, we have lots of non-name brands in MLS - they're also cheap. The MLS salary budget is very low (something like 2.5 million total per team), costs are contained.

The danger is in expanding rosters and increasing payrolls - that opens the door to bankruptcy if the TV ratings and other revenues do not materialize. Expanding teams does not, for the most part, since the talent is relatively cheap and each new market has been a tremendous success recently.

My thinly veiled reference was to the NASL. They expanded themselves to death. By the time they realigned with 12 solid franchises, they were too much of a joke to continue.

Ah, I see. The NASL peaked at 24 teams, that's why I thought you were talking about the NHL's southern strategy.

The NASL didn't have MLS's cost containment. The other thing is that MLS has vetted their owners and only takes on owner/investors with strong capital reserves. Jeff Cooper in St. Louis has been rejected time and time again, and lo and behold his second division team is bankrupt now.

This is not the NASL. They're not even comparable in terms of league structure or internal finances.

You mention the international talent pool, but that can only be accessed with cash. The cash a team gets from filling a 30,000 seat stadium can keep a respectable team on the field. You can't access the international talent pool without the money media brings in. MLS can't compete with Uruguay or Denmark for players currently. If you are dividing the media pie among too many teams you've shot yourself in the football. MLS can easily expand to the point of economic inefficiency. They are already half way there.

I disagree. The notion we can't compete with Denmark is false. We can, and we do. We also get a lot of talent from Latin America that we can under pay, as the value of living in the US is much greater to those players.

And it's not about dividing the media pie amongst too many members - that might be the case if you were really large and covered all the key markets, but MLS is not and does not.

One note on promotion/relegation. As mentioned, team/stadium owners would never go for it. I think there is a better chance of the top EPL clubs breaking away from the structure and forming a non-pro-rel super league than the idea of pro/rel expanding to the US.

Yes, absolutely.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Promotion/relegation in the US is also something that's likely to kill any attempt at a serious TV deal for whatever league were to try it. London isn't likely to have 0 teams in the premiership. The possibility of not having a NY/CHI/LA etc. market so Omaha, Biloxi, and Reno can move up isn't going to have a lot of fans in the media business.

Exactly. Right now, there are no Premiership sides in Leeds, Sheffield, Bristol, Leicester and Coventry, the fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth and ninth-largest cities in England. (For the record, Manchester is eighth).

This would be analogous to no MLB teams in Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Diego or Dallas.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Exactly. Right now, there are no Premiership sides in Leeds, Sheffield, Bristol, Leicester and Coventry, the fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth and ninth-largest cities in England. (For the record, Manchester is eighth).

This would be analogous to no MLB teams in Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Diego or Dallas.

It's not really analogous, though (not that this changes your point about the viability of pro/rel). Leeds is only ~35 miles from Manchester. Hell, New England plays at Gillette, which is a good 22 miles from downtown Boston. Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium are about 30 miles apart, but if one of those teams were to be relegated we wouldn't say we've lost the LA market.

You can lose a city like Leeds and still cover the entire country in England. Not so in the US.
 
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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

I'd love a promotion relegation system, but it won't fly because of the possiblity of no NY/CHI/LA teams.

Also, Thierry Henry has signed with the Red Bulls. I know some Irish fans that root for the team will not be happy. (I know a ton of Red Bulls fans that are Irish and they said they ain't happy.)
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=808568&sec=transfers&cc=5901

Manchester United veteran Ryan Giggs has not ruled out the possibility that he will end his career in the MLS but has suggested he may be too old.

Giggs, 36, has been at United his entire career and is expected to walk away from the game when his current deal expires next season.

However, Giggs, who is currently taking part in United's five-game pre-season tour of North America, said he might consider a switch when asked about the possibility of playing in the USA.

"Being in America you have a great lifestyle, good for raising a family," Giggs told USA Today. "The play is getting better. I still have a year left with Manchester United. After that maybe. May be I will be too old."

United's tour begins with a match against Celtic in Toronto on Friday night before further tour matches against Philadelphia Union, Kansas City Wizards, the MLS All-Stars and Chivas Guadalajara.

Giggs, who has made 838 appearances for United, scoring 155 goals, knows the team faces some stern tests in the coming weeks.

He said: "MLS has grown and the success of the USA in the World Cup can only have helped football. We want to get our fitness. It is a good opportunity to get our rhythm against good competition."

Make of that what you will.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!


MLS just needs to be sure it doesn't end up falling into one of the traps of the NASL - its teams paid way too much for over the hill international stars. It's neat to see some of these guys coming over to play in MLS, but the league needs to guard against developing a reputation for being an international retirement community.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

"Ball don't lie".

Older players who have the desire to work and still have something in the tank (a la GBS) can still do very well in MLS. Ones who look at it as a vacation (a la Abel Xavier or Lothar Mattheus) are not long for the league.
 
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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

"Ball don't lie".

Older players who have the desire to work and still have something in the tank (a la GBS) can still do very well in MLS. Ones who look at is a vacation (a la Abel Xavier or Lothar Mattheus) are not long for the league.

Yep.

MLS is a fast, physical league - if not the most skilled. Older guys can play, but they still need to put in the effort. I'd welcome someone like Giggs to MLS, but my concern would be more about age, pace, and effort than skill.

Pay is also a concern - if Giggs would want Beckham-like money (or even Henry-like money), you need to sell Beckham-like volumes of merch.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

"Ball don't lie".

Older players who have the desire to work and still have something in the tank (a la GBS) can still do very well in MLS. Ones who look at is a vacation (a la Abel Xavier or Lothar Mattheus) are not long for the league.
Oy. Man what a debacle Matthaus was.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Yep.

MLS is a fast, physical league - if not the most skilled. Older guys can play, but they still need to put in the effort. I'd welcome someone like Giggs to MLS, but my concern would be more about age, pace, and effort than skill.

Pay is also a concern - if Giggs would want Beckham-like money (or even Henry-like money), you need to sell Beckham-like volumes of merch.

I can only offer the perspective of watching the few Union home games but I agree that it is wide open and more of a young man's game (at least in those contests). Sure, Fred is out there but most of the guys are very young and the game is more frenetic than strategic.

Makes sense for a franchise to have an experienced European player once in a while, good for the young guys but I agree that it would only be if the player sold enough to justify a high salary or was willing to play for a little less to be in the US and enjoy a year or two at the tail end of the career.

Tonight we have Celtic FC in for a friendly. Raining like crazy so they'll be right at home.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

For reference (regarding the new FIFA rankings), here's the top 30 in the updated Elo rankings:

(Rank) (Nation) (Points)
1 Spain 2140
2 Brazil 2072
3 Netherlands 2071
4 Germany 2037
5 Argentina 1940
6 England 1890
7 Croatia 1866
8 Uruguay 1861
9 Portugal 1859
10 Chile 1858
11 Mexico 1840
12 Egypt 1827
13 Italy 1824
14 Russia 1818
15 Serbia 1781
16 Ukraine 1780
17 Turkey 1774
18 Sweden 1770
19 Australia 1767
20 Ghana 1760
20 Paraguay 1760
22 Côte d'Ivoire 1758
23 Switzerland 1757
24 France 1752
25 USA 1749
26 Japan 1746
27 Republic of Ireland 1743
28 Korea Republic 1728
29 Colombia 1724
30 Norway 1723
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

I can only offer the perspective of watching the few Union home games but I agree that it is wide open and more of a young man's game (at least in those contests). Sure, Fred is out there but most of the guys are very young and the game is more frenetic than strategic.

Makes sense for a franchise to have an experienced European player once in a while, good for the young guys but I agree that it would only be if the player sold enough to justify a high salary or was willing to play for a little less to be in the US and enjoy a year or two at the tail end of the career.

Tonight we have Celtic FC in for a friendly. Raining like crazy so they'll be right at home.

Never hurts to have a vet around to provide positive leadership experience around to younger players. If he's still got gas in the tank and can keep up with the young dogs, having an old hound around to help lead the pack isn't a bad thing.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Wow, is Fulham really playing the first friendly of the preseason already? The Europa seems like just a couple of weeks ago...

*clears throat*

Build a bonfire!
Build a bonfire!
Put the Brentford on the top!
Put the Chelsea
in the middle
and we'll burn the ****ing lot!
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

What does the talent pool have to do with bankruptcy? Sure, we have lots of non-name brands in MLS - they're also cheap. The MLS salary budget is very low (something like 2.5 million total per team), costs are contained.

The danger is in expanding rosters and increasing payrolls - that opens the door to bankruptcy if the TV ratings and other revenues do not materialize. Expanding teams does not, for the most part, since the talent is relatively cheap and each new market has been a tremendous success recently.



Ah, I see. The NASL peaked at 24 teams, that's why I thought you were talking about the NHL's southern strategy.

The NASL didn't have MLS's cost containment. The other thing is that MLS has vetted their owners and only takes on owner/investors with strong capital reserves. Jeff Cooper in St. Louis has been rejected time and time again, and lo and behold his second division team is bankrupt now.

This is not the NASL. They're not even comparable in terms of league structure or internal finances.



I disagree. The notion we can't compete with Denmark is false. We can, and we do. We also get a lot of talent from Latin America that we can under pay, as the value of living in the US is much greater to those players.

And it's not about dividing the media pie amongst too many members - that might be the case if you were really large and covered all the key markets, but MLS is not and does not.


I was talking about what MLS needs to do to gain international stature.

I understand that if MLS is fine with its current quality level and international status, they need to keep doing what they are doing and they will be a nice lower significance league both in the American sports scene and in the world soccer community. People shouldn't think MLS is slowly growing into something better and more prestigious. It's not.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Does MLS make money?

Well, that depends. Most teams operate at a loss, but that's not uncommon for tax purposes. The league as a whole (since it is a single entity) doesn't release their books, but owning an MLS team also includes a right to a piece of the SUM pie, which includes things like all the rights to all Mexican games in the US.

So, when you package all of the MLS owner benefits together, they're doing just fine.

I was talking about what MLS needs to do to gain international stature.

I understand that if MLS is fine with its current quality level and international status, they need to keep doing what they are doing and they will be a nice lower significance league both in the American sports scene and in the world soccer community. People shouldn't think MLS is slowly growing into something better and more prestigious. It's not.

I'm not sure I follow you. You're simultaneously harping on MLS for expanding too fast (and risking bankruptcy) while chastising it for not improving in quality fast enough.

MLS needs to improve in quality, that's for sure. No one disputes this. That's not the number one goal, however. MLS now is far more financially stable and secure than the NASL ever was. In fact, there's probably less risk involved in owning an MLS team than there is in a couple of the marginal NBA or NHL franchises (at least during this last recession).

NASL failed because it tried to buy on-field success. MLS has achieved financial stability and is now looking to entrench those interests via the youth academies, stadium infrastructure, etc.

Nobody thinks MLS will just magically improve, nor have they set unrealistic and nebulous goals of becoming a greater "significance league both in the American sports scene and in the world soccer community" - however that might be defined.

I'm an MLS season ticket holder, I certainly don't need any validation from greater international stature - nor do I think the league needs that to succeed. Instead, I think it's building off of its assets. The games are a lot of fun to go to. Most of the successful clubs in terms of attendance have embraced supporter culture - they are in the process of building fanbases and connections to cities that will last for generations. They're taking the long term approach, which is why stability comes first and why owners are willing to fork over a lot of cash to get a piece of the action.
 
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