WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I was saying I didn't see UW scoring 5 either night. But if they do, I was agreeing with you that it would be Saturday.

Though, now that I look at the stats, Anchorage is giving up 3.32 goals/game, and the game is at Wisconsin.

So, you could be right. They just play such a frustrating style that you always come away feeling like your team could have gotten more if they didn't always park 4 guys in front of their net, clogging up shooting lanes all game long.

Frustrated by difficulty scoring? pfft... No problem. We've prepared all season for just this situation.

Actually I really don't know what to expect this weekend. On paper, a Badger sweep seems probable. With all the adversity early on it seems the boys have been playing catch up with the weight of the world on their shoulders, though. And now, in order to accomplish any of their season objectives, they're in a position where they really must win 3 of the next 4. I don't know if it's easier to beat a team twice you should handle (on paper) in a must win situation, or harder because you know you should win? Especially when you're already tight and pressing because know you should just play better all around. Hopefully Bucky can just loosen up and play the game.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I am hopeful about this series. UW's D is for real, I was worried Miami's speed would create issues, but it didn't at all. I am hopefull the line changes will produce, they really can't hurt. And I'm hopeful a couple ppg's get scored for UW. Even a blind squirrel with no nose steps on a nut under under an oak tree in September every so often. I think Petersen will get the start on Saturday.

Duluth is idle and Kato is playing the rodents, the stage is set for UW to jump into 6th place, possibly higher if DU, UNO and Sue stumble. Then it's a top 4 showdown with the Sue in their tee-pee.

 

[TJbadgerfan]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I am hopeful about this series. UW's D is for real, I was worried Miami's speed would create issues, but it didn't at all. I am hopefull the line changes will produce, they really can't hurt. And I'm hopeful a couple ppg's get scored for UW. Even a blind squirrel with no nose steps on a nut under under an oak tree in September every so often. I think Petersen will get the start on Saturday.

Duluth is idle and Kato is playing the rodents, the stage is set for UW to jump into 6th place, possibly higher if DU, UNO and Sue stumble. Then it's a top 4 showdown with the Sue in their tee-pee.

DU is also idle. It is not out of the realm of possibility that UW could be in 3rd after the weekend.

 

[diddlypoo]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Is there an RPI calculator/projector in existence? In looking at the teams ahead of UW in the PWR, it seems like RPI improvement is the only way to move up materially (UW's COp vs just about everyone sucks, and its TUC isn't particularly good either.) But will the games against Alaska, PSU and Bemidji even count towards improving UW's RPI? Is it reaching the point where UW will need to win 3 of 6 from UM, UND, and UNO to get in the tourney?

It's probably way too early to begin making projections given the fluidness of the Team Under Consideration, but it seems like the losses to NMU and ties to tech are going to be very difficult to overcome.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Is there an RPI calculator/projector in existence? In looking at the teams ahead of UW in the PWR, it seems like RPI improvement is the only way to move up materially (UW's COp vs just about everyone sucks, and its TUC isn't particularly good either.) But will the games against Alaska, PSU and Bemidji even count towards improving UW's RPI? Is it reaching the point where UW will need to win 3 of 6 from UM, UND, and UNO to get in the tourney?

It's probably way too early to begin making projections given the fluidness of the Team Under Consideration, but it seems like the losses to NMU and ties to tech are going to be very difficult to overcome.

I have no factual basis to help you with, but I've been assuming exactly what you said. (That Bucky needs 3 of those six.) I also suspect you're correct that this weekend can't help us. Obviously a ways to go yet but I don't know how it can be looked at differently at this point.

 

[Almington]

It's probably way too early to begin making projections given the fluidness of the Team Under Consideration, but it seems like the losses to NMU and ties to tech are going to be very difficult to overcome.

UW continuing to win will improve their RPI, the other factors in the RPI are outside of UWs control.

Losses in Non-conference play my anyone in your conference hurt, particularly bad when you lose them to lower end teams.

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

On top of what these guys have already said, root for Northern Michigan to start losing games as UW's 0-2 record against them this season really hurts. Cheer against CC too, as if they hit the TUC line that won't be pretty.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

5-2 Badgers halfway through the third if anybody is wondering.

The thing to me is, assuming a win tomorrow, without a split at ND next week the number of things working against the Badgers gets to be almost unmanageable. Of course a lot can happen but Bucky would really need so much to break their way without a win next week.

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

5-2 Badgers halfway through the third if anybody is wondering.

The thing to me is, assuming a win tomorrow, without a split at ND next week the number of things working against the Badgers gets to be almost unmanageable. Of course a lot can happen but Bucky would really need so much to break their way without a win next week.

I think you're exaggerating a bit (although two losses would be tough). Wisconsin just needs to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself. Remember that after last Friday's win Wisconsin was at #19 in the PWR. That's obviously well within striking distance of the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin has at least 15 games to play, including 8 against teams that will be TUC's in terms of the PWR. Need to continue to build upon the past few months. A dominating performance tonight should help the confidence.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I think you're exaggerating a bit (although two losses would be tough). Wisconsin just needs to keep winning and the rest will take care of itself. Remember that after last Friday's win Wisconsin was at #19 in the PWR. That's obviously well within striking distance of the NCAA tournament. Wisconsin has at least 15 games to play, including 8 against teams that will be TUC's in terms of the PWR. Need to continue to build upon the past few months. A dominating performance tonight should help the confidence.

Yes, obviously if you just win all your games the rest will take care of itself. But I'm not sure I'm following you. WI is t23 in the PWR right now. (26th before the win over Miami). As was pointed out in the PWR thread, no team has ever come from that far back in JAN to make the NCAA's. Two losses next week and I gotta believe we'd need to sweep MN or NO (NO is 20th in PWR so that's even questionable how far we can move with a sweep) plus probably St Cloud, plus have a few other things out of our control happen. A win next week probably puts us within striking distance, but without it? I don't know...

Agreed that tonight was just what the doctor ordered. Including TWO pp Goals!!!

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Yes, obviously if you just win all your games the rest will take care of itself. But I'm not sure I'm following you. WI is t23 in the PWR right now. (26th before the win over Miami). As was pointed out in the PWR thread, no team has ever come from that far back in JAN to make the NCAA's. Two losses next week and I gotta believe we'd need to sweep MN or NO (NO is 20th in PWR so that's even questionable how far we can move with a sweep) plus probably St Cloud, plus have a few other things out of our control happen. A win next week probably puts us within striking distance, but without it? I don't know...

Agreed that tonight was just what the doctor ordered. Including TWO pp Goals!!!

Maybe I'm talking out of my . Wouldn't be the first time. Wisconsin has a lot of opportunities in the second half to make up ground, but they obviously need to take advantage.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Maybe I'm talking out of my . Wouldn't be the first time.

Of the two of us, that would seem way more likely to be me.

 

[Almington]

Yes, obviously if you just win all your games the rest will take care of itself. But I'm not sure I'm following you. WI is t23 in the PWR right now. (26th before the win over Miami). As was pointed out in the PWR thread, no team has ever come from that far back in JAN to make the NCAA's. Two losses next week and I gotta believe we'd need to sweep MN or NO (NO is 20th in PWR so that's even questionable how far we can move with a sweep) plus probably St Cloud, plus have a few other things out of our control happen. A win next week probably puts us within striking distance, but without it? I don't know...

Agreed that tonight was just what the doctor ordered. Including TWO pp Goals!!!

I don't think you understand how the PWR works. Beating the #1 team and beating the #20 team has nearly the same impact. You have to investigate EVERY comparison in depth to see how they can be flipped. The most important thing is getting your RPI as high as possible and the only way to do that is win (who you win against is basically irrelevant for RPI calculations).

I suspect the UW will need to go at least 0.500 against any TUC that they play for the rest of the season to have any hope of making the NCAA tournament as an At-large team.

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I don't think you understand how the PWR works. Beating the #1 team and beating the #20 team has nearly the same impact. You have to investigate EVERY comparison in depth to see how they can be flipped. The most important thing is getting your RPI as high as possible and the only way to do that is win (who you win against is basically irrelevant for RPI calculations).

I suspect the UW will need to go at least 0.500 against any TUC that they play for the rest of the season to have any hope of making the NCAA tournament as an At-large team.

Correct. Probably a tad bit better than .500.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I don't think you understand how the PWR works. Beating the #1 team and beating the #20 team has nearly the same impact. You have to investigate EVERY comparison in depth to see how they can be flipped. The most important thing is getting your RPI as high as possible and the only way to do that is win (who you win against is basically irrelevant for RPI calculations).

I suspect the UW will need to go at least 0.500 against any TUC that they play for the rest of the season to have any hope of making the NCAA tournament as an At-large team.

Recalculating sans Margaritas today.


Yes, the effect of who WI beats down the stretch is very small. One win today against MN would give Bucky a RPI of .5238. The same against NO would make it .5229. Against Penn ST it would be .5193. Tiny difference over the season, but 16th to 17th in the current RPI is .0005. (statistically convenient, I know.) It may or may not make any difference depending on a myriad of other things, like what NMU does, or CC going 6-4 and becoming a TUC for example as Chuck points out.

Feel free to just move along to some more relevant and sensible discussion because this part is probably too speculative to be meaningful, but since I opened my mouth:
After tonight's win Bucky' RPI projects to .5211. (Currently 20th.)
A split next week projects to .5219 (Still 20th)
Two wins = .5315 (16th)
Two losses= .5133 (25th)

Regardless, Overall on average, any 9 wins of the remaining 13 projects to an RPI of .5294, which would put us (currently) 18th ahead of Alaska (incidentally, the only team out of the top 16 in RPI, in the top 16 PWR.) and .0016 out of current 16th place in RPI.
Winning 7 of 13 projects to .5155- Currently 24th.

Strictly based on RPI projections, a win tonight leaves us needing to go 8-4. Two losses next week leave us needing to go 8-2 with MN coming in, a trip to NO, and St Cloud at home. It's just not much margin for error when it only projects to the bubble. Outside help is probably needed in that scenario, or going 8-1-1 or 9-1 perhaps. We do have that quality win against Miami...

At least a split next week, and then going 8-2 and Bucky is almost assured a spot. 7-3 still has them on the bubble.

Obviously we could win the WCHA, the conference tournament, or even get a big win or two there, other teams could collapse, etc. But in my mind both statistically and psychologically this team needs to take care of business tonight and get a tough road win next week.

Or I could be completely wrong. As I mentioned, I haven't been drinking yet today...

 

[SatNightFever]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

While the math is daunting at this point...one thing for sure is that it is nice to at least be able to HAVE this discussion and that we even have a chance at the NCAA's.

Obviously if we keep winning, we will climb - but what is a realistic finish for us in the WCHA for the regular season?

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

While the math is daunting at this point...one thing for sure is that it is nice to at least be able to HAVE this discussion and that we even have a chance at the NCAA's.

Obviously if we keep winning, we will climb - but what is a realistic finish for us in the WCHA for the regular season?

5-8

 

[Almington]

Recalculating sans Margaritas today.


Yes, the effect of who WI beats down the stretch is very small. One win today against MN would give Bucky a RPI of .5238. The same against NO would make it .5229. Against Penn ST it would be .5193. Tiny difference over the season, but 16th to 17th in the current RPI is .0005. (statistically convenient, I know.) It may or may not make any difference depending on a myriad of other things, like what NMU does, or CC going 6-4 and becoming a TUC for example as Chuck points out.

Feel free to just move along to some more relevant and sensible discussion because this part is probably too speculative to be meaningful, but since I opened my mouth:
After tonight's win Bucky' RPI projects to .5211. (Currently 20th.)
A split next week projects to .5219 (Still 20th)
Two wins = .5315 (16th)
Two losses= .5133 (25th)

Regardless, Overall on average, any 9 wins of the remaining 13 projects to an RPI of .5294, which would put us (currently) 18th ahead of Alaska (incidentally, the only team out of the top 16 in RPI, in the top 16 PWR.) and .0016 out of current 16th place in RPI.
Winning 7 of 13 projects to .5155- Currently 24th.

Strictly based on RPI projections, a win tonight leaves us needing to go 8-4. Two losses next week leave us needing to go 8-2 with MN coming in, a trip to NO, and St Cloud at home. It's just not much margin for error when it only projects to the bubble. Outside help is probably needed in that scenario, or going 8-1-1 or 9-1 perhaps. We do have that quality win against Miami...

At least a split next week, and then going 8-2 and Bucky is almost assured a spot. 7-3 still has them on the bubble.

Obviously we could win the WCHA, the conference tournament, or even get a big win or two there, other teams could collapse, etc. But in my mind both statistically and psychologically this team needs to take care of business tonight and get a tough road win next week.

Or I could be completely wrong. As I mentioned, I haven't been drinking yet today...

The RPI doesn't care who you beat, the RPI will be lower from just playing PSU than from playing UMN. I suspect that if you were to look at three games, one each against UNO, BSU, and UMN, a 2-1 record regardless of who the wins were against would yield virtually identical RPIs, but who the wins were against could have a huge implication in the PWR

Given the RPI/PWR system, if you do lose games you want them to be against non-TUC teams in your conference.

 

[SatNightFever]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I debate with my non-hockey friends (if we can even call them "friends"). I say the PWR, while it is not perfect, is better than the BB selection committee. Everyone knows the rules going into the season and you can see how your team is doing from night to night. But, if there was ever a year for the PWR to use a BB committee stipulation that "how you finish" the season is important - the "last 10 games" or so, it's this year (at least to help the Cardinal and White!).

While we are not there yet in the college hockey season, in BB the first 10 games might not kill your chances as much as it appears Bucky's first 10 hockey games are going to haunt them

Let's hope we continue on the path to resurrection tonight.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

The RPI doesn't care who you beat, the RPI will be lower from just playing PSU than from playing UMN. I suspect that if you were to look at three games, one each against UNO, BSU, and UMN, a 2-1 record regardless of who the wins were against would yield virtually identical RPIs, but who the wins were against could have a huge implication in the PWR

Given the RPI/PWR system, if you do lose games you want them to be against non-TUC teams in your conference.

Sorry, you are correct.