Re: Wisconsin Badgers @ UND Hawk Fighting Nodak Riders (11-6 & 11-7)
Like Coach Berry, the first thing Coach Barry did when he took over Wisco was load up on cupcakes the first couple games. UND has played 8 games against a total of 5 teams that have combined to win 5 of 37. Drawing with the 2 teams that are a combined 1 for 14 was perhaps a slight miscalculation. (It happens, Alvarez lost to football powerhouses like San Diego St. and UNLV, too.)
But despite all the ominous signs that UND's program is about to enter a massive decline, there's still tonight's game and for now, UND holds the #1 ranking. So let's get it on.
What the Badgers have going for them:
They've been in against quality opponents. 4 of 5 Badger opponents are a combined 15-9-5. ASU at 1-6 at least has a D-1 win and Bucky didn't tie them. Granted, they got stomped by BC, but at least they've been in a hostile environment against top talent. (Both Bucky and DU went 0-2 in Boston, so clearly they are on par.) Ferris State's weird rink is no cakewalk to play at, either.
Special Teams. Badgers aren't deep, but they do have some real talent. PP is clicking and a chippy, whistle fest could for once actually favor the Badgers. Kunin and Besse both have monster shots and Soleway, at a very lean 220 pounds, is hard to handle in front of the net. As is 5'8" Ryan Wagner, believe it or not.
Eddie Wittchow on a small sheet. Wittchow has clearly worked very hard in the offseason. He is big, experienced, very strong, and playing very physical down low and it's harder to get away from him in a smaller space. He gave the Boston's and Ferris fits and he can do some damage at UND as well.
Team speed is vastly improved. They can get up and down on the rush and put pucks on net. Corsi for is a respectable 53+% and they aren't far from the top in total shots attempted/game.
This isn't a terrible team. The best UND has faced to date. (Which isn't saying much.) Not deep though. Half of these guys went through hell last year and they very badly want some respect.
UND's best and most experienced player, Caggiulla is out. Will the rest use it as a rallying point? Seems likely. But it's still disruptive to lines and special teams, and is perhaps an opportunity the Badgers can take advantage of.
What's against Bucky:
UND's aggressive forecheck against a D that is prone to lapses in judgement and getting caught out of position. There's more, but frankly, this is all it takes. BC capitalized on mistakes, and it quickly became hard to escape a "here we go again" feeling. Although to be fair it had probably already crept in after Sr. goaltender Adam Miller let in a softy then followed it up by inexplicably letting a red line dump in get in the back of his net on the last play of his season to date to put the Badgers in a deep hole early. Jurusik has been gaining confidence and has been doing very well, especially considering he's a true freshman being thrown right into the fire after just signing in July. For the D, it's a teachable/learnable thing but it takes experience. They are somewhat improved but these kinds of plays including turning it over at their own blue line still crept in late in the series against ASU, only ASU didn't have the horses to capitalize. Not so at all here. Keep hanging Jurusik out to dry and UND will make it count. The whole thing could quickly get out of hand.
Hostile environment, and team mentality. The first speaks for itself, and as for the second, probably the hardest thing in sports is to go from a losing attitude to a winning one. One in which you believe you are going to win and take to the ice with confidence, some swagger, and a positive jump. UND has it in spades and Bucky is still looking to regain what they've lost. A Badger win this weekend could go a long way in that regard for this young team.
Bottom Line: IF Bucky doesn't shoot themselves in the foot early, (Some will remember they were taking it to UND at the KC last year early until an own goal completely turned the tide) and they can make it a game that turns on a special teams play or an individual effort, they have some guys that can make it happen and they could actually win. (Notice the 'if' is Big.) UND's depth of talent and home ice is much more likely to still be too much for the young Badgers to overcome.
Final odds on a Badger win: 2.666-1 against.