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WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

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Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

Unless Kangas can summon up some Khan-like saves like he did against the Purple Cows a couple of years ago I hate to say it but Sioux in 3.

Also I would take Brock Nelson in a heartbeat FWIW.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

I just grabbed a copy of the Pioneer Press and there is no story about this series in there :eek:
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

ScoobyDoo said:
I've already explained that in great detail.

If the Gophers score two goals they have about a 6% chance of winning. 1-15 record.
If the Gophers score three goals or more they have about a 85% chance of winning. 16-2-2 record.
If the Gophers score four goals or more they have about a 99% chance of winning (it's 100 but I refuse to say sure thing). 10-0 record.

The problem is the Gophers only score 3 goals or more in a game 55% of the time. And UND has been shutting people down lately, in their last 7 games they've given up 2 goals or less and won all 7.

So, the trend line says that there is no way Minnesota can score 3 and thus no way they can win.

Sioux Sweep.
Click to expand...

What I was saying is a little different (except the 3 goals). UND could score 2 goals to tie the game up at two, but since MN scored their second goal first, they would win under my scenario. :cool:
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

Brenthoven said:
What I was saying is a little different (except the 3 goals). UND could score 2 goals to tie the game up at two, but since MN scored their second goal first, they would win under my scenario. :cool:
Click to expand...

So, you think that if Minnesota happens to get to two first they'll automatically get to 3 first despite the data?

Sure, could happen. Not likely.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

ScoobyDoo said:
So, you think that if Minnesota happens to get to two first they'll automatically get to 3 first despite the data?

Sure, could happen. Not likely.
Click to expand...

Yep. It's a big "if" for MN to get two goals, though.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

JF_Gophers said:
I think if we are team with more goals at the end of the game we will have a good chance of winning. - D. Green
Click to expand...
And yet another.


"There's two teams here that want to win. When that happens, only one team can win."

"Nobody can beat us when we play like we play when we play."
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

RinkPig said:
Did you Susie fans watch your golden boy Brock Nelson play yesterday? He will fit right in when he wears that puke green jersey.... plays dirty and likes to run up the score against a bad team late in the game, and when they scored to go up 8-0 he acted like it was his first goal ever... vey classy!
Click to expand...
Sorry for responding to the pig. But I saw that same behavior from a number of stars on ranked teams this week. If anything, Nelson showed a little nervousness when he mishandled a couple sure goals.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

I'm hoping my DVR gets the right game tonight. FSN says it'll be on 658 on Direct TV tonight. My channel guide says nothing of the sort and says I don't even get that channel. I set it anyway. :( I'll be at the Xcel tonight watching the next generation of UND, Gopher, etc. stars.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

goldy_331 said:
I'm hoping my DVR gets the right game tonight. FSN says it'll be on 658 on Direct TV tonight. My channel guide says nothing of the sort and says I don't even get that channel. I set it anyway. :( I'll be at the Xcel tonight watching the next generation of UND, Gopher, etc. stars.
Click to expand...


Does anyone know what channel the game should be on for Dish Network? I haven't been able to find anything on it.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

Apparently the alternate channels will show up at game time but not before.

At least with Comcast that's what they are saying.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

ScoobyDoo said:
I've already explained that in great detail.

If the Gophers score two goals they have about a 6% chance of winning. 1-15 record.
If the Gophers score three goals or more they have about a 85% chance of winning. 16-2-2 record.
If the Gophers score four goals or more they have about a 99% chance of winning (it's 100 but I refuse to say sure thing). 10-0 record.

The problem is the Gophers only score 3 goals or more in a game 55% of the time. And UND has been shutting people down lately, in their last 7 games they've given up 2 goals or less and won all 7.

So, the trend line says that there is no way Minnesota can score 3 and thus no way they can win.

Sioux Sweep.
Click to expand...

Good job on this Scoobs. You know me by now I love the objectivity.

But in this case considering the following factors:

1) a UND/MN playoff/rivalry,
2) the recent history of the clashes of these two teams (each team has a tie and a blowout),
3) the subjective psychological component of the need for a full on intense commitment by the Gophers to avoid a "season ending" series,
4) the Sioux are already guaranteed an NCAA bid whereas the Gophers need to win for a remote shot at making the NCAAs ;) ,
5) the Gophers have averaged 3.5 GPG over the last six (UND I think is 4.? in last 10?)
6) the Gophers going into a hostile and abusive environment as the underdog,

I'd tend to look at the above factors as exceptional to the normative stats that you highlighted. Because of the number of subjective elements in the equation it's a difficult call.
 
Re: WCHA First Round: MN @ UND

UND will try to rack up 85 hits tonight(friday). Sort of like they did against St cloud in St Cloud. Hopefully Kangas doesn't become a wall. By Saturday the goophers will be so scared they won't even want to play.

UND in 2. The Ralph will not get one extra night of beer sales this year.
 
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