Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc
It's pretty hard to have any confidence in the long term future of the WCHA when 2 of the perennial top 4 programs don't want to even be in the conference.
Mankato has already tried to leave and its been no secret for a while now that BGSU really, really wants to be in a Great Lakes area(Michigan-Ohio-Pennsylvania) centered league and end all the long bus trips to Minnesota/Alabama and travel to the AK schools.
Shot:
https://goo.gl/maps/idNhSEH85HT2
Chaser:
https://goo.gl/maps/hS2jD5bv1b72
The next round of realignment is going to come only in a handful of forms:
1. WMU / Miami pledge to leave the NCHC and join the WCHA, penalties be ****ed. This would kick off negotiations. This requires donors willing to help soften the blow of the escape clauses. Probability: low (it requires them to move in faith); impact: high (it would essentially force a change that would be uncontrolled).
2. NCHC and WCHA forces combine to make pro-active swap to re-unite the non-B1G Minnesota schools and return WMU/Miami to the lower Midwest. Probability: pretty low (requires the conferences to work together), impact: medium (would be a negotiated change that doesn't result in a chain reaction of panic moves).
3. ASU gets an arena deal in place and joins the NCHC with MSU, leaving BSU as the only Minnesota school in the WCHA (weird statement) and keeping the old CCHA split up. Probability: moderate (I think this would've happened by now if ASU had an arena), impact: low (WCHA approaches Robert Morris / Mercyhurst / Niagara / Air Force to fill the open slot).
4. One or more Division I teams folds (take your pick of UAA/UAF/UAH/LSSU and whatever AHC schools are on life support these days). Probability: moderate (could happen), impact: low (unlikely to make any name schools move).
5. NCAA mandates that no Division I conference can be larger than seven members. Probability: minuscule; impact: could be viewed from the ISS.
I actually like that last one if it's also driven with a cap on league games at 24, but then I also like controlled chaos.
GFM