USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

[PuckRush]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

My unofficial "official" list

1) Wisconsin - The most complete team. Period.
2) Minnesota - Improved goaltending and secondary scoring is on Santa's list.
3) St Lawrence - Pairwise aside, would anyone bet on them beating either MN or WIS?
4) UMD - Resume building coming along nicely.
5) Colgate - Word association still comes up toothpaste but quality wins could change that.
6) Clarkson - BC or Clarkson? Clarkson gets the nod.
7) BC - BC here for now but they will probably be singing the Jefferson's theme song soon.
8) Quinnipiac - a lot of talent to be hangng out here.
9) Northeastern - Somebody's got to finish second in Hockey East.
10) UND - Hawks go from the frying pan to the fire this week although they have the color green going for them

Love this analysis. Not in 100% agreement, but very well done. You know the teams. My differences (if you care) and they are subjective (meaning I'm not right) - UMD could be better than SLU, Clarkson slightly better than Colgate, Princeton is going to make noise and will probably make an appearance here soon, and really not sure about Northeastern. I agree, but really dislike, that BC is going to be "moving on up" based on running a winning streak against HE teams. Put them in ECAC or WCHA and we wouldn't be saying that.

 

[KTDC]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Love this analysis. Not in 100% agreement, but very well done. You know the teams. My differences (if you care) and they are subjective (meaning I'm not right) - UMD could be better than SLU, Clarkson slightly better than Colgate, Princeton is going to make noise and will probably make an appearance here soon, and really not sure about Northeastern. I agree, but really dislike, that BC is going to be "moving on up" based on running a winning streak against HE teams. Put them in ECAC or WCHA and we wouldn't be saying that.

Good contribution. Colgate is undefeated, but 19th in the nation in Quality Win Bonus. And yeah, BC will probably run up a lot of wins in HE. Skipping too far ahead here, but if BC doesn't make it into the top 4 by the end of the year, they will be an undesirable draw in the quarter finals. Although there may be a number of good games in the quarters this year

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Good contribution. Colgate is undefeated, but 19th in the nation in Quality Win Bonus. And yeah, BC will probably run up a lot of wins in HE. Skipping too far ahead here, but if BC doesn't make it into the top 4 by the end of the year, they will be an undesirable draw in the quarter finals. Although there may be a number of good games in the quarters this year

I'm looking forward to the stink that will be caused by #5 Duluth playing #2 UM/UW in the quarterfinals

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

As we have seen in the past, with the high number of games against each other, it is highly unlikely that the WCHA could have 3 of the top 5 teams in the Pairwise. For example, that current WCHA top 3 has 10 games remaining against just themselves. That's 10 more losses to be added to loss totals. Then in the league playoffs there are probably two more. Assuming arguendo that the currently higher ranked team wins all of those games you would have an at least 6 loss Minnesota and an at least 9 loss UMD. More likely is something like a 2 to 4 loss Wisconsin, a 2 to 5 or 6 loss Minnesota and an 8 or 9 loss UMD.

Barring the more eastern leagues all playing towards 6 or 8 loss league champions it wouldn't appear likely that the western match-up will be 2 v. 5, more likely something like 3 v. 6, or 3 v. 7.

 

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I agree, but really dislike, that BC is going to be "moving on up" based on running a winning streak against HE teams. Put them in ECAC or WCHA and we wouldn't be saying that.

If things hold, Minnesota will play against only three teams with winning records in the 34 game regular season. Maybe down to two teams if North Dakota drops to .500 after this week-end.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Finally some stabilization this week. Not much movement at all.

Week VIII Posters Poll:

[U][B]Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  [I]Range (Mode)[/I]  Last week (change)[/B][/U]
  1.    99  Wisconsin (9)           [I]1-2   (1)[/I]     1
  2.    88  Minnesota               [I]2-3   (2)[/I]     2 
  3.    80  St. Lawrence (1)        [I]1-4   (3)[/I]     3
  4.    69  Minnesota-Duluth        [I]3-6   (4)[/I]     4
  5.    60  Colgate                 [I]4-8   (5)[/I]     5
  6.    52  Clarkson                [I]5-6   (6)[/I]     6
  7.    39  Boston College          [I]7-8   (7)[/I]     7
 t8.    22  North Dakota            [I]6-10  (10)[/I]    9 (+1)
 t8.    22  Quinnipiac              [I]8-NR  (8)[/I]     8 
 10.    14  Northeaster             [I]7-NR  (10)[/I]    ARV (+1)

[U][B]Also Receiving Votes:[/B][/U]
         4  Robert Morris           [I]9-NR  (9)[/I]     ARV
         1  Princeton               [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    ARV (-1)
             
[U][B]Dropped Out:[/B][/U]
            None

Here’s the Week 8 chart: https://s12.postimg.org/mpc3xc7nv/poll.png

 

[pokechecker]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I'm looking forward to the stink that will be caused by #5 Duluth playing #2 UM/UW in the quarterfinals

I thoroughly enjoyed the stink raised here by the NE/BC matchup last year

Colgate is undefeated, but 19th in the nation in Quality Win Bonus.

maybe so, but until somebody beats them ....

could happen soon, looks like they begin a tough schedule
and if they drop one to St. Cloud ....

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

If things hold, Minnesota will play against only three teams with winning records in the 34 game regular season. Maybe down to two teams if North Dakota drops to .500 after this week-end.

I might take in your point if the WCHA wasn't 15-1-2 against NC opponents. All your stat does is show how tough it is on a team's record to be in a conference with 2-3 pretty unstoppable teams.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

I thoroughly enjoyed the stink raised here by the NE/BC matchup last year

That's true there was quite a stink but IN FAIRNESS the WCHA playing each other in the quarters is because of the way the rules are set up. BC playing NU last year flew in the face of their own rules. Haha

 

[ARM]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

BC playing NU last year flew in the face of their own rules.

Not really. The No. 1 rule seems to be, "Cheap out whenever possible." They state it as minimize flights, but the cost of bussing Princeton to Boston and putting the Tigers up in a hotel must have been astronomical in the eyes of the NCAA compared to an intracity pairing. The problem wasn't so much about fairness, because there wasn't much difference between Princeton and Northeastern, but that it is hard to build interest in the sport when the same, tired games are played over and over.

At least if it is a question of UMD being sent to Minnesota or Wisconsin, the Bulldogs can go wherever the bracket says they should go. North Dakota would always be sent to Minneapolis, even if the rankings were 1. Minnesota, 4. Wisconsin, and 5. North Dakota, with a huge gap between No. 5 and the rest of the field.

I doubt anything gets done about this until somebody from the East really gets screwed by it. For example, a field where Wisconsin is 1, Minnesota appears to be 5, just a bit behind BC in 4. Robert Morris wins the CHA, but the Colonials would have gotten in anyway at 6. UND takes the WCHA from outside the top 8. The bracket comes out, and surprise! It turns out the committee has different math that has the Gophers in 4, just ahead of BC. The Gophers still host North Dakota, even though it looked like both would be road teams. RMU goes to Madison. Instead of hosting Minnesota, BC goes on the road to play Clarkson at No. 3.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

If things hold, Minnesota will play against only three teams with winning records in the 34 game regular season. Maybe down to two teams if North Dakota drops to .500 after this week-end.

Those three teams represent 12 games. That's about the same number as the number of games against teams over .500 that anyone else will likely play. Since they have a larger conference schedule in a smaller league than the ECAC and Hockey East, WCHA teams simply play fewer teams overall. So, it's not at all surprising that they play fewer different teams that have a winning record.

 

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Those three teams represent 12 games. That's about the same number as the number of games against teams over .500 that anyone else will likely play. Since they have a larger conference schedule in a smaller league than the ECAC and Hockey East, WCHA teams simply play fewer teams overall. So, it's not at all surprising that they play fewer different teams that have a winning record.

I'm not a math major, but I would expect close to 50% of the games to be against teams with a winning record and close to 50% of the games against teams with a losing record (removing the few teams that are exactly .500). Playing 20 to 26 games out of 34 against teams with a losing record would be favorable.

 

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I might take in your point if the WCHA wasn't 15-1-2 against NC opponents. All your stat does is show how tough it is on a team's record to be in a conference with 2-3 pretty unstoppable teams.

Most of the teams making up that record have 3 to 4 wins or less, like Lindenwood (0 wins this season) and RIT (1 win). Teams like Mercyhurst (3 wins) and Merrimack (4 wins) took points from mid-tier WCHA teams.

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

 

[D2D]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

For example, a field where Wisconsin is 1, Minnesota appears to be 5, just a bit behind BC in 4. Robert Morris wins the CHA, but the Colonials would have gotten in anyway at 6. UND takes the WCHA from outside the top 8. The bracket comes out, and surprise! It turns out the committee has different math that has the Gophers in 4, just ahead of BC. The Gophers still host North Dakota, even though it looked like both would be road teams. RMU goes to Madison. Instead of hosting Minnesota, BC goes on the road to play Clarkson at No. 3.

ARM, this kind of creativity just might land you a high-paying job with the NCAA, assuming you're interested and wouldn't mind using it to support doing the wrong thing.

 

[bc6696]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

ARM, this kind of creativity just might land you a high-paying job with the NCAA, assuming you're interested and wouldn't mind using it to support doing the wrong thing.

Only if ARM is within a bus ride to the office

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Most of the teams making up that record have 3 to 4 wins or less, like Lindenwood (0 wins this season) and RIT (1 win). Teams like Mercyhurst (3 wins) and Merrimack (4 wins) took points from mid-tier WCHA teams.

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

I absolutely must meet this person.

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

The WCHA is the elephant in the room (at least for Eastern folks). You can talk all you want about stats and whine about so called schedule avoidance. At the end of the day, the WCHA has almost all the national championships and that's the bottom line.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I'm not a math major, but I would expect close to 50% of the games to be against teams with a winning record and close to 50% of the games against teams with a losing record (removing the few teams that are exactly .500). Playing 20 to 26 games out of 34 against teams with a losing record would be favorable.

Your expectation is not correct. For one thing, if we are only looking at the top teams, we would expect them to play fewer than half of their conference games against teams with winning records, because they don't play themselves. For Minnesota, that means that, even under your assumptions, they would play 7 different teams in conference play, of whom we would expect 4 to have losing records. So, about 42% of their games would be against teams with winning records, which works out to . . . 12, exactly as Minnesota is playing.

But there's another layer to that, that also applies to non-conference games. We would expect Minnesota's opponents to have a losing record in aggregate, because they lost games to Minnesota. The act of winning means that your opponents' winning percentage goes down. If you want to calculate a team's strength of schedule, you have to remove the games it played from its opponents' records.

If you combine these two things, it explains why almost all of the top teams' scheduled opponents have a current record under .500. St. Lawrence has 14 of 32 regular season games against teams that have a winning record at the moment. (Note: your initial calculation was wrong, because Minnesota, like St. Lawrence, has only 32 regular season games this year.) Colgate has 11 of 34. Quinnipiac has 15 of 34. Cornell has 13 of 29. Boston College has 10 or 11 of 33, depending upon who they play in the second week of the Beanpot. Northeastern has 8 or 9 out of 34. Clarkson is the only team I found that makes it to half of their games against teams with winning records, at 17 of 34. Given the first problem I mentioned, it shouldn't be a surprise that ECAC teams are consistently the closest to playing half of their games against teams with winning records, since they have 11 remaining conference opponents after removing themselves, rather than 8 (Hockey East) or 7 (WCHA).

In other words, math is harder than you thought.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Most of the teams making up that record have 3 to 4 wins or less, like Lindenwood (0 wins this season) and RIT (1 win). Teams like Mercyhurst (3 wins) and Merrimack (4 wins) took points from mid-tier WCHA teams.

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

Again, that's already taken into account. The WCHA has 6 of the top 8 SOS' in the country (as it does every year). So who else snuck in to that level of competition? Harvard 1-5. Dartmouth 1-5.

You can try to downplay the league...but by definition, everyone else is playing at a level lower.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

Which is as many as the ECAC and Hockey East have combined. There is a very strong bias against teams with winning records getting swept, because they tend not to be winning teams if that happens.