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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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I don't follow that. From what I can see, Erdogan's authoritarian streak makes him less likely to assert Turkey's historical grievances against Russia. Like Le Pen or Dump, Erdogan understands that direct opposition to Putin will tend to put all reactionaries in a bad light and strengthen democracy, which is bad for his regime. If a Turkish reform party candidate won and began to restore democracy and press freedom in Turkey that would be bad news for conservatives everywhere.
 
I read the ISW report on Russia/Ukraine daily, and it seems almost daily like the Russian Duma is passing one or more bills restricting this or modifying that. Do these guys have ALEC writing their bills for them? Are they written hastily at an elementary school-level? Both?
 
Good god.

The United States estimates Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut since December, including more than 20,000 killed in action, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on a call with reporters Monday.

20k dead and 80k maimed, to (unsuccessfully) capture a bridge to nowhere.

Also, the BBC just broke a story that Gazprom has formed a private army from its own paramilitary (which is apparently a thing, but that's a whole other story) and redirected them from protection of gas assets to "volunteers" in the regular Russian army on the front lines.
 
This is an amazing analysis which I certainly won't read all of. It details Putin's criminal negligence and stupidity in managing high level leadership during the war.

Again, ISW are bad people with a bad agenda and you don't want them anywhere near policymaking. These are the scum that dominated American foreign policy decision-making in every Republican administration since 2000 whose vampiric ideology and doctrinal blindness nearly destroyed both the American diplomatic mission and our global credibility. They truly suck. But they write one helluva good paper.
 
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I think a major problem Putin has is a classic one that befalls many autocrats in their final years - his own ego and paranoia. Like all autocrats, Putin is a control freak and he trusts no one (nor should he). Like all megalomaniacs, he craves the credit for any victory. He expected a quick win so he could flex for the RT and Sputnik cameras as a military mastermind, a savior of ethnic Russians, and a conquerer of their evil Ukrainian oppressors. He badly underestimated Zelenskyy and his ability to rally the citizens of Ukraine to mount an impressive guerilla defense of their homeland.

Putin has studied the whole history of the various chess moves that ultimately filled the vacuum of power left by Stalin with Khrushchev; moves which began even before the ol' butcher took his last breath. Putin knows that at this point the oligarchs would likely skin him alive in Red Square tomorrow if a majority of them would unite on who his successor should be. So he deliberately keeps them all divided, only partially informed, pointing fingers at the military brass and each other. That way they all look like fools, and no clear commander who could potentially lead a movement to depose Putin emerges. It also makes for awful war strategy, as Hitler found out when he employed it for the last 18 months or so of WW2 while he was high as a kite on various drugs.
 
Good god.



20k dead and 80k maimed, to (unsuccessfully) capture a bridge to nowhere.

Also, the BBC just broke a story that Gazprom has formed a private army from its own paramilitary (which is apparently a thing, but that's a whole other story) and redirected them from protection of gas assets to "volunteers" in the regular Russian army on the front lines.

Exxon and Apple have their own army…you just know them as the US Marines, US Navy, US Army, etc
 
I think a major problem Putin has is a classic one that befalls many autocrats in their final years - his own ego and paranoia. Like all autocrats, Putin is a control freak and he trusts no one (nor should he). Like all megalomaniacs, he craves the credit for any victory. He expected a quick win so he could flex for the RT and Sputnik cameras as a military mastermind, a savior of ethnic Russians, and a conquerer of their evil Ukrainian oppressors. He badly underestimated Zelenskyy and his ability to rally the citizens of Ukraine to mount an impressive guerilla defense of their homeland.

Putin has studied the whole history of the various chess moves that ultimately filled the vacuum of power left by Stalin with Khrushchev; moves which began even before the ol' butcher took his last breath. Putin knows that at this point the oligarchs would likely skin him alive in Red Square tomorrow if a majority of them would unite on who his successor should be. So he deliberately keeps them all divided, only partially informed, pointing fingers at the military brass and each other. That way they all look like fools, and no clear commander who could potentially lead a movement to depose Putin emerges. It also makes for awful war strategy, as Hitler found out when he employed it for the last 18 months or so of WW2 while he was high as a kite on various drugs.

https://youtu.be/7HVGnAW4x74

I thought this was a terrific analogy.
 
Good god.



20k dead and 80k maimed, to (unsuccessfully) capture a bridge to nowhere.

Also, the BBC just broke a story that Gazprom has formed a private army from its own paramilitary (which is apparently a thing, but that's a whole other story) and redirected them from protection of gas assets to "volunteers" in the regular Russian army on the front lines.

I can't find it quickly but I read some clarification that this total was over a longer timeline than just the Bakhmut offensive.
 
I can't find it quickly but I read some clarification that this total was over a longer timeline than just the Bakhmut offensive.

No. In fact, ISW has it as since January of this year, per remarks from the US National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby.

edit: from Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...hs-2023-05-01/

edit #2: It’s not just the Bakhmut offensive, so that’s the clarification, but the majority of the deaths/wounded have been there since January.
 
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No. In fact, ISW has it as since January of this year, per remarks from the US National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby.

edit: from Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...hs-2023-05-01/

edit #2: It’s not just the Bakhmut offensive, so that’s the clarification, but the majority of the deaths/wounded have been there since January.

Ahh, there we go. Thanks. I knew it was beyond Bakhmut but couldn't remember the actual timeline.
 
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