US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[dxmnkd316]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1501867473192292356?s=20&t=9bJZvK6oNQS_6C4Q34POuA

The UK has frozen all of Roman Abramovich's assets. Whoa.

That means Chelsea cannot sell tickets or merchandise.

 

[MichVandal]

Not sure about that sending home part- there are pics of mobile crematory units that the Russians had on border a few weeks ago

Even if they don't, at some point, parents will notice that their kids are missing.

 

[Handyman]

What ever happened to that "massive" Freedumb Convoy? Did they burn up some diesel and complete a second lap of the Beltway before heading off to a massive lunch and a long nap?

The Twatter algorithm has gotten somewhat better in the last couple years in terms of spotting and hiding/shadowbanning the really obvious ones, but they are almost always easy to identify. Trolling Level: Lazy

Its still going I think, just no one cares because it is protesting things that largely don't exist. Plus they aren't blocking traffic anymore than truckers normally do and they are costing themselves lots of money by burning gas at the worst possible time. (gas prices rising)

Isn't it mostly Qucumbers at this point anyways? I know there was a bunch of the "Kennedy is Coming Back" crew that was touting it and joining it. I know they met with a couple of people in DC like Ted Cruz but without the borschtbots it just isn't getting any traction.

Twitter's algo is better but still sucks. A five year old could pick out a lot of the bots.

 

[MichVandal]

Russia may have crippled itself (long term) and China (certainly in the short term).

this is the part I just have not figured out- what in the world is vladdy thinking? Did he really think that if he took Ukraine that money and business would flow into Russia? That companies would not just get up and leave??

I can't even imagine what it will take for investment to happen in Russia, now. Unless they turn incredibly West (as in real voting democracy), who is going to be so greedy to attempt to do business there?

 

[aparch]

You have to remember that there are still parts of the world that don't understand the internet. So they will be taken advantage of. It's low hanging fruit.

Think of Boomers/Gen-X'ers here who fell down the propaganda rabbit hole over the past 10 years. Lots of the world lags behind us when it comes to people using/understanding the internets. Those growing pains are still to come for them.

There are also third world nations who leap frogged our technology because they weren't saddled with ancient tech that they need to support.

Some African and Middle Eastern countries we might consider "third world" have a much more robust cellular network built up for internet because there was no legacy "Plain Old Telephone System" copper wiring to piecemeal into the new network. They went straight from no/very limited Telephone to 3/4G networks for all.

They may not be posting this weeks TikTok dance trend, but I'm pretty sure most the globe has been touched by the internet by now.

 

[Handyman]

Apparently Ukrainian soldiers capturing Russian soldiers are so appalled by their provisions they are sharing their food with them.

This is starting to remind me of Austro-Hungarian WW1 stories from The Good Soldier Svejk.

Well...Russia has basically been running the same military since WW1 so it makes sense.

 

[dxmnkd316]

this is the part I just have not figured out- what in the world is vladdy thinking? Did he really think that if he took Ukraine that money and business would flow into Russia? That companies would not just get up and leave??

I can't even imagine what it will take for investment to happen in Russia, now. Unless they turn incredibly West (as in real voting democracy), who is going to be so greedy to attempt to do business there?

I think the people running the government under him took half while telling him they were perfectly capable. There are people commenting on how shit the tires are and how clear it was that they weren't exercised for maybe even as long as a year. I've got to imagine that the kleptocracy cannibalized itself while trying to maintain the idea that they were still mighty.

If this had been a hard push to Kyiv like the US with Baghdad, I'm not sure what would have happened.

I also don't think the Russians thought the west would unite as much as it did. I don't think they thought Germany would have the balls to do anything since it's reliant on Russian energy. I don't think Russia thought the sanctions to their central bank would happen. I think they thought SWIFT was the final boss and that China would be more open to supporting them. Once it became obvious that Russia wasn't a military power, China noped the fuck out.

It really reeks of galaxy brained planning that didn't consider the fat tail risk.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

It's kind of like our Project Management discussions from a while ago. Nobody does Risk Management in projects anymore and that is why they fail.

 

[Handyman]

this is the part I just have not figured out- what in the world is vladdy thinking? Did he really think that if he took Ukraine that money and business would flow into Russia? That companies would not just get up and leave??

I can't even imagine what it will take for investment to happen in Russia, now. Unless they turn incredibly West (as in real voting democracy), who is going to be so greedy to attempt to do business there?

He figured this would be over in a week and no one would really care. Let's be frank here if the Ukrainians weren't putting up the fight they are 90% of these businesses leaving never would have. Lest we forget half the politicians (i.e. one whole party) was slobbering Putin until it became politically expedient not to. The biggest key to victory was taking Kyiv before public opinion could sway things. The second the Ukrainians delayed Russia the more likely it became that the West would be forced to leave Russia in droves.

 

[dxmnkd316]

He figured this would be over in a week and no one would really care. Let's be frank here if the Ukrainians weren't putting up the fight they are 90% of these businesses leaving never would have. Lest we forget half the politicians (i.e. one whole party) was slobbering Putin until it became politically expedient not to. The biggest key to victory was taking Kyiv before public opinion could sway things. The second the Ukrainians delayed Russia the more likely it became that the West would be forced to leave Russia in droves.

Right, but some of the harsh sanctions came in as soon as they announced recognition of the new territories. It wasn't like the west didn't start with the harsh shit until they started bombing Kyiv. It was almost immediate, as far as speed of nations goes.

 

[Kepler]

Meanwhile, the U.S. announced they are sending Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. I don't know how they are going to get trained on them. The first time we sent those to Israel, I believe we initially manned them.

I'm sure Mossad had stolen* the plans years before.

* Who am I kidding? Some wingnut Senator gave them to them to facilitate the second coming of you know who.

 

[Kepler]

They are not even talking about this to their own citizens. Saw a report of a Ukrainian who had to get to Hungary- he wondered why his dad, who lives in Russia, never called. So once they settled a second time, he called, and dad denied it was even happening.

There are lots of stories of Ukrainians under fire calling their relatives in Russia and their relatives saying they're lying and hanging up.

Not sure whether they're brainwashed or they think the line is tapped and assume the secret police are waiting to Stalin them.

 

[Kepler]

Not sure about that sending home part- there are pics of mobile crematory units that the Russians had on border a few weeks ago

IINM that photos was discredited as being old and from training in another part of the world.

But at the same time... totally on brand.

 

[Kepler]

The West has strengthen its relationships pretty substantially over the last fortnight. For China and Russia, instead of a two-front war with The East, Ukraine is giving Russia everything they can handle. Opens up the rest of the world to focus on China and Taiwan. One more reason the US cannot get involved in a hot war with Russia. (SPeaking in future terms with regards to dealing with China.)

Prior to this war, Russia and China sort of orbited around each other in binary. A fairly powerful partnership. Now that Russia has imploded back to the 1850s, it's basically just China with Russia orbiting it. That's more of a parasitic relationship. Unless China goes buddy-buddy with India, it's kind of out of options looking for a dance partner.

Russia may have crippled itself (long term) and China (certainly in the short term).

I actually heard a European geopolitical type on DW hypothesize that if Russia uses China to compensate for sanctions they would become a de facto client state, like South Korea to us.

Things are tough all over, Stanislav.

 

[Kepler]

Well...Russia has basically been running the same military since WW1 so it makes sense.

I read about what happened to Tukhachevsky. Jesus fuck.

(Note, link is to a site that appears to be friendly to Stalin and approves of his murders. Included here for educational purposes and is not an endorsement. See? There are some insane Leftists! Like, five of them.)

 

[MichVandal]

He figured this would be over in a week and no one would really care. Let's be frank here if the Ukrainians weren't putting up the fight they are 90% of these businesses leaving never would have. Lest we forget half the politicians (i.e. one whole party) was slobbering Putin until it became politically expedient not to. The biggest key to victory was taking Kyiv before public opinion could sway things. The second the Ukrainians delayed Russia the more likely it became that the West would be forced to leave Russia in droves.

But he would have to be delusional to actually think Europe would do nothing over this. I understand that the European reaction has been more than the US even expected- but to think that nobody would care? That's beyond having sycophants around you. Especially since the EU pretty much projected what they would do before the invasion started.

I did expect more bowing to vladdy from the US Rs, but they really turned once Ukraine defended themselves.

This sure seems that there is literally no way vladdy can win- if he defeats Ukraine- he's shunned by the rest of the world and will face a constant attack from Ukraine resistance until they leave; on the other hand, he has to admit defeat. This is where the situation is getting really dangerous.

And either way, I don't see investment going into Russia anytime soon if vlad sticks around, except perhaps China so that China can take control. This whole thing is literally taking Russia back to the late 80s, economically. And that didn't go very well for the USSR.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

There are lots of stories of Ukrainians under fire calling their relatives in Russia and their relatives saying they're lying and hanging up.

Not sure whether they're brainwashed or they think the line is tapped and assume the secret police are waiting to Stalin them.

Gee. That sounds a lot like when competent humans speak to their Trumpian relatives about reality.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I actually heard a European geopolitical type on DW hypothesize that if Russia uses China to compensate for sanctions they would become a de facto client state, like South Korea to us.

Things are tough all over, Stanislav.

Interesting. Hadn't really considered the possibility of it becoming a client state instead of a pariah. Dat's a lot of oil and resources.

Tinfoil hat time.
Xi isn't pissed, he's popping champagne. Even if they can't steamroll Taiwan in the next 15 years because of a united West, there's the possibility of Russia basically forking over materials and energy at cut-rate prices because no one else will deal with them. That's the 3D chess, man. If you want to eat something, you've got to find a way to kill it first. Imagine playing Putin for 10+ years thinking that you might have a situation where either the West gets neutered or resource-heavy Russia does. Xi couldn't really lose unless the nukes come out.

 

[dxmnkd316]

But he would have to be delusional to actually think Europe would do nothing over this. I understand that the European reaction has been more than the US even expected- but to think that nobody would care? That's beyond having sycophants around you. Especially since the EU pretty much projected what they would do before the invasion started.

I did expect more bowing to vladdy from the US Rs, but they really turned once Ukraine defended themselves.

This sure seems that there is literally no way vladdy can win- if he defeats Ukraine- he's shunned by the rest of the world and will face a constant attack from Ukraine resistance until they leave; on the other hand, he has to admit defeat. This is where the situation is getting really dangerous.

And either way, I don't see investment going into Russia anytime soon if vlad sticks around, except perhaps China so that China can take control. This whole thing is literally taking Russia back to the late 80s, economically. And that didn't go very well for the USSR.

Check bounced

 

[Handyman]

Right, but some of the harsh sanctions came in as soon as they announced recognition of the new territories. It wasn't like the west didn't start with the harsh **** until they started bombing Kyiv. It was almost immediate, as far as speed of nations goes.

Sanctions were going to happen, but my guess is Putin was prepared for most of those. He wasn't counting on Germany giving them the finger though...

BTW I need to amend what I said before...some GOPers are still slobbering Putin:

https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1501958391173894146

Not a great day for Cawthorn...