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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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Drew S. said:
How much do you think we are helping Ukraine? Just ISR info or are there Americans on the ground as well? I wonder if the odd super hornet or two has been conducting strikes as well. We probably will never know but I do wonder.
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I think we’ve left some assets behind. How many and how helpful I’ve no idea
 
Twitter has been quiet tonight. It's an hour before sunrise in Kyiv, and the aerial blitzkrieg that the RUS army was rumored to do overnight appears to have not taken place yet.
 
aparch said:
Twitter has been quiet tonight. It's an hour before sunrise in Kyiv, and the aerial blitzkrieg that the RUS army was rumored to do overnight appears to have not taken place yet.
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Rumors on Twitter Russians might try something dodgy to take Kyiv. I kind of wonder if they’ll go the other way and give up. This is a fight they’re clearly not going to win and they’re using up all their equipment.
 
Drew S. said:
Rumors on Twitter Russians might try something dodgy to take Kyiv. I kind of wonder if they’ll go the other way and give up. This is a fight they're clearly not going to win and they’re using up all their equipment.
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They may not win, and I hope to Christ they don't, but that isn't in any way clear. The move on Kyiv so far has been extremely timid. It seems like one of 3 things is going on:

1) This was all bluster. The hope was to gain capitulation through intimidation and it has been a grave miscalculation
2) Kyiv has so far been a feint. All the focus from the media, and perhaps too much from the Ukrainian military, has been on Kyiv. Meanwhile further east it has been extremely difficult to develop a clear picture of what is going on.
3). They are taking their time, for one or various reasons, in order to maximize chance of success while limiting losses.

I wouldn't dare try to suppose exactly what is in Putin's mind but it feels like they were crossing their fingers for #1, while carrying out #2 and preparing for #3. I think they will be satisfied with slow and steady gains further east while attempting to wear down Kyiv as much as possible before fiercely engaging there.

We haven't seen the full force of the Russian army yet, and it's hard to believe they would have moved if Putin was only committed to half-assing it.

Remember, they spent months mobilizing and positioning. This was never going to be a weekend invasion and home for work on Monday.
 
Most of what I read is that Russia just doesn't have the logistics in place for a full on attack and Ukraine is basically calling their bluff. Russia may take Kyiv in the end but this is embarrassing and Putin is losing now than winning.
 
Drew S. said:
How much do you think we are helping Ukraine? Just ISR info or are there Americans on the ground as well? I wonder if the odd super hornet or two has been conducting strikes as well. We probably will never know but I do wonder.
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There is absolutely zero Americans on the ground fighting in uniform. There are zero American fighters in their skies. Not now, not ever. Will not happen. Period.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
There is absolutely zero Americans on the ground fighting in uniform. There are zero American fighters in their skies. Not now, not ever. Will not happen. Period.
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Yeah if they pulled that and an American died Biden would be dead in the water.
 
Jimjamesak said:
As much as I'd love to see a return to the Cold War days of European flights going through Anchorage on their way to Asia I doubt that'll happen. Most Euro carriers will just go through the Middle East. Dubai and Doha are about to start making bank.
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Plus modern aircraft are considerably more fuel efficient now compared to the 70s and 80s. A fully loaded and fueled 787-9 can fly almost 8,000 miles with reserves. The smaller variant of the next generation of the 777 can fly a little over 9,000 miles with reserves. The Airbus A350 and A330neo have comparable range.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
There is absolutely zero Americans on the ground fighting in uniform. There are zero American fighters in their skies. Not now, not ever. Will not happen. Period.
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There definitely aren’t any in American uniforms. The rest of the stuff I’m not sure of. We probably will never find out.
 
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Putin done fucked up. Germany votes to change Constitution to increase military spending to above 2% of GDP (US is 3%). As recently as 2015 it was 1.1%.
 
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Drew S. said:
There definitely aren’t any in American uniforms. The rest of the stuff I’m not sure of. We probably will never find out.
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I would bet we have special ops ("little blue men?") there advising, if nothing else on cyber but probably also on urban counter measures learned from when we were the bad guys.
 
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