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Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

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Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Ralph Baer said:
Burgie,

Why not start a separate thead about this. It might get comments from others, and the Union fans don't like it when we come here. :)
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Even if it was a Union fan who asked about the PWR situation regarding his team? ;)
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Wholin1 said:
I started it and I'm not complaining. By the same token, I'm still not understanding it. :confused:;)
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At least on our thread you're told that there's math involved. I just skip over those posts. :D
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Wholin1 said:
I started it and I'm not complaining. By the same token, I'm still not understanding it. :confused:;)
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burgie12 said:
When RPI first becomes a TUC (whether that's Friday night, or after an Engineers win on Saturday, or an RPI sweep against Harvard and Dartmouth next weekend, or however it happens) (or they hit 10 games against TUCs in another manner), expect a bump down at least a few spots as the Alaska, Providence, and UMass comparisons will all flip against you. However, improved play over the rest of the regular season could lead to sneaking back some of those comparisons and inching themselves into the tournament.
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The TL;DR is in the second-to-last paragraph. When Union hits ten TUC games, their pairwise rank is going to fall. No ifs, ands, or buts. (Same thing with UML, by the way.) But, Union has the opportunity to make up their poor results so far by (in order of importance) a) performing really well in their remaining four TUC in-conference games, b) Rensselaer becoming a TUC, c) Merrimack becoming a TUC.

If that happens AND they get some breaks (SCSU faltering a little to drop their TUC Record under 0.500 / Yale finishing behind Union in the standings / no upset conference tournament winners), then Union can sneak their way into the tournament.

Once all of the Big 4 teams get up to 10+ TUC games (and everyone has played everyone else within their conference), these types of answers will be easier to divine. I don't have the bracketology expertise of Red Cloud, but I have some kind of numbers background, so I'll try and keep my eyes open for the ECAC teams; see if there isn't some way to make their path forward make a little more sense. The basic mantra is always cheer for your non-conference opponents (unless you performed epicly bad against them and they're just below the TUC Cliff).
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

burgie12 said:
The TL;DR is in the second-to-last paragraph. When Union hits ten TUC games, their pairwise rank is going to fall. No ifs, ands, or buts. (Same thing with UML, by the way.) But, Union has the opportunity to make up their poor results so far by (in order of importance) a) performing really well in their remaining four TUC in-conference games, b) Rensselaer becoming a TUC, c) Merrimack becoming a TUC.

If that happens AND they get some breaks (SCSU faltering a little to drop their TUC Record under 0.500 / Yale finishing behind Union in the standings / no upset conference tournament winners), then Union can sneak their way into the tournament.

Once all of the Big 4 teams get up to 10+ TUC games (and everyone has played everyone else within their conference), these types of answers will be easier to divine. I don't have the bracketology expertise of Red Cloud, but I have some kind of numbers background, so I'll try and keep my eyes open for the ECAC teams; see if there isn't some way to make their path forward make a little more sense. The basic mantra is always cheer for your non-conference opponents (unless you performed epicly bad against them and they're just below the TUC Cliff).
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So as a newbie to this whole thing, it seems that you have made assumptions that the TUCs remain basically static, but they are obviously changing all the time based on as yet unplayed games. I'm sure I'm missing a basic concept here. :confused:
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Wholin1 said:
So as a newbie to this whole thing, it seems that you have made assumptions that the TUCs remain basically static, but they are obviously changing all the time based on as yet unplayed games. I'm sure I'm missing a basic concept here. :confused:
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This far into the season, the TUCs aren't static, but they're essentially there. Take, for example, Alaska. They have an RPI of approximately 0.5200. If they win five of their remaining twelve games, they'll still have an RPI above 0.5000. Teams with RPIs above 0.5200 now are fairly safe bets to remain TUCs. By the middle of February, 0.5100 will be considered "safe." On the other side of the ledger, Princeton (at almost exactly 0.4900) needs at least seven of their last eleven (regular season) games to be wins to climb over the Cliff. (All of this data comes from Sioux Sports' Rankings pages [RPI] [PWR], by the way. The "details" page for each team indicates what a team's approximate RPI will be given various results through the rest of the season or the individual comparisons against other TUCs.)

There are always "good" TUCs and "bad" TUCs for each team. It's easy to look at the "good" and "bad" TUCs for an individual team, but much more difficult to look at it for everyone (especially when a) there's so much time between now and the end of the season and b) most of the TUC Record comparisons for Union aren't close). That's why I listed the teams that were near 0.500 and said that they could be flipped or would be variable. In 2011, when WaP was doing "Engineer Bracketology," Cornell was a very bad TUC for RPI. In this case, Union's "good" TUCs are floating just below the Cliff while their bad ones are at least a little bit up the ladder (although LSSU falling off the Cliff would greatly help the Dutchmen and isn't that unfeasible). This far out, it's easier to look at the macro view (aka, I shouldn't have gone through the individual comparisons). The macro view says that Union has a bad but semi-redeemable TUC Record and a poor record against CCHA teams which hurts them in most of their CCHA comparisons.
 
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Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Ralph Baer said:
Burgie,

Why not start a separate thead about this. It might get comments from others, and the Union fans don't like it when we come here. :)
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I have no problem with your input or any other input from fans of other teams as long as the talk remains constructive and semi-respectful towards our school and our program. This is good information for those who don't follow the system closely enough to understand all the data-crunching involved. However, at this point, I think the team would be best served by focusing on winning their remaining games one at a time and making a decent run into the ECAC tourney. If they end up deserving to go to the NCAA's, hopefully it will happen.

I haven't been posting recently. A lot of homework from taking an overload in my Post-Bacc program has forced me to be a lurker again, but I still like listening to the games and watching them if the Internet or DirecTV will allow if for no extra cost.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow and I hope no one gets injured before the big playoff push.

Keith.
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Union players weigh in on tonight's game, keys to the game, memories of playing RPI, facing a goalie they haven't seen much of (Kasdorf), and differences in preparation when facing only one team instead of the usual two on a weekend....

http://bit.ly/USzLMD
 
Union recruit Michael Vechione had a hat trick for Tri City in the USHL last night, including the game winner in OT. Top 15 in the league and still has another year. Great pick up
Look for him to get traded as teams make their final playoff push. 4/5 top teams are vying for him as we speak.
 
Hokydad said:
Union recruit Michael Vechione had a hat trick for Tri City in the USHL last night, including the game winner in OT. Top 15 in the league and still has another year. Great pick up
Look for him to get traded as teams make their final playoff push. 4/5 top teams are vying for him as we speak.
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Good to know but I am pretty sure he is a 2013 recruit.
 
rdf8585 said:
With 3 of the top 4 point producers on the team (as of now) set to graduate this spring, they'll need all the offensive minded recruits they can get. It's also not impossible to think Gostisbehere could go pro this summer.
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He is not going anywhere. Loves it where he is and not close to being ready. Will be but not yet
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

With 3 of the top 4 point producers on the team (Simpson, K.Bodie, Coburn) set to graduate this spring, they'll need all the offensive minded recruits they can get. It's also not impossible to think Gostisbehere, fifth in points, could go pro this summer.

Coburn has quietly had a great senior year, with Union career highs in points (18) and goals (7). And there's several games left.
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

Hokydad said:
He is not going anywhere. Loves it where he is and not close to being ready. Will be but not yet
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If it's not this summer, it's probably next summer. I'd be surprised if he stays all four years, but would be ecstatic if he does.
 
rdf8585 said:
If it's not this summer, it's probably next summer. I'd be surprised if he stays all four years, but would be ecstatic if he does.
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Not an option this summer. No hurry for him as he is in a perfect situation

Welch was more ready and he just got sent down again
 
Re: Union Hockey 2012-2013 - Unfinished Business

I would be surprised if Ghost leaves after this season. He is only 19, Welsh was 24 and had little to prove by staying on. Ghost also doesn't yet have the chassis to play pro IMO. I noticed also that Hawkesbury managed to slow down Michael Pontarelli last night-only 2 goals.
 
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