Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!
It's been awhile since the last installment, and it's fair to say that since those heady days of 6-1-1, some of the bloom has fallen off the rose in the aftermath of three successive losses. With a chance to solidify their former "Champions of December" lineage one more time for the departing head coach, your 'Cats gacked up a series of hairballs against their first extended stretch of top-level competitors. Not terribly surprising, but now that we're midway through the early-season "gauntlet" without a W, your friends at WIS step back and take inventory in this latest "They Probably Are Just What We Thought They Were", stuck-in-neutral edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600".
"Umile's Last Stand - The March to 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 592
Wins Remaining to NRN (Next Round Number): 8
Games Remaining (plus 2 min. MBPBEGAM games): 25
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 32.0%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 80%
2017/2018 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR):
4/6 (66.7%)
Sure, the last couple of weekends involved games against the teams who in recent seasons have been playing the big games Coach Umile's program used to compete in somewhat regularly back on both sides of the turn of the century. But when UNH were the perennial "Champs of December" in those halcyon days of yore, knocking off even the top competitors before the turn of the calendar was not s surprise, as much as it was an expectation. So it was while channeling those good ol' days that WIS predicted two W's and a T for a stretch that turned as barren as the Isles of Shoals in mid-winter. "But they were close games with UML and BC" ... "UNH is working through some injuries" ... nope, if that's what you're selling, WIS is not buying. The vast chasm in class between an overachieving UNH squad playing on its home ice and an underachieving BC squad was there for all to see. Maybe the beatdown at BU should have been obvious a mile away? But I really did think the team's early-season momentum would net them at least one W in the gauntlet before Thanksgiving. But as many folks were saying ... this stretch would provide us some insight into what the true level of this year's UNH squad might be. And if so (and I do agree with the premise), then this is an at-best, middle of the pack HE team that will need to overachieve (again) to get the boss to the Gahden at the tail end of his long-awaited farewell tour.
Looking at the big picture ... WIS' panel of experts projected in the preseason that Coach Umile's Wildcats would amass at least 10 wins in the opening 19 game stretch of the season through completion of the Ledyard Bank Classic after the break and before we turn the calendar into 2018. UNH had made it up to nosebleed territory at #9 in the polls at 6-1-1, but have now fallen to #13 at their current 6-4-1 record, which still feels to be an artificially high slot (22nd in PWR and 23rd in RPI feel way more representative). The 'Cats are probably now only one game ahead of WIS projections after this current three game losing streak, and while I said last time around that "it's frankly hard to see UNH going through even this challenging-looking stretch of games without adding to the W column" as "famous last words maybe", I'm going to say the same thing as we look ahead to these next three games. Yale (3-5-0) is a team that's already lost to Brown, Dartmouth and Princeton, so a much needed W is there for the taking, while the Providence series usually nets UNH a result, and with those guys just coming back from the Fraudship Four event, I think "Peaches" has once again done UNH a solid. Let's just say that at least one W in these next 3 games keeps this a
March, but another three games without a W and we're back to a
Quest. WIS predicts ...
Predictions:
Saturday: UNH 4 @ Yale 1
Next Friday: UNH 2 @ Providence 2
Next Saturday: Providence 5 @ UNH 2
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF: 12/6/17 @ RPI
WIS INITIATIVE - "WATCH THE FACTS" - COMING SOON!!
WIS operatives have been out and about in the world of college hockey, in search of the truth amidst false narratives and hidden agendas at the highest levels, on and off the ice. The first target of our Watch The Facts hit squad will be the monolith along the shores of scenic Lake Quannapowitt, where the forces of political correctness have taken ahold. Watch this space for the incredible disclosures as they unfold.
GO UNH - GOT TO GET THE GOODBYE TOUR TO THE GAHDEN!!!
Troy (RPI) or Schenectady (Union), I can see. New Haven has been stuck in neutral (and that's being kind IMO) for so long, it's really embarrassing. Especially considering the long list of Rust Belt cities who have managed to emerge from the erosion of the manufacturing base over the last several decades - none of which BTW have the "advantage" of having a world-class Ivy institution fully within its borders. Even the two Albany "suburbs" mentioned above, their schools have a fraction of Yale's endowment, which only makes New Haven's problems more puzzling.
