Re: UNH Wildcats 2015-2016 (Part Three) - Living in Interesting Times
Dan, I never think of you as one who with unbridled optimism. And looking at this roster, frankly, I don't know where it comes from. The two biggest problems for this year's team were lack of team speed and the inability to get the puck out of the defensive zone. Looking at your projected first line, no speed there, and there is none returning on your projected third and fourth lines. On the back end, where we have had real problems for the last two years, I just don't see things getting that much better. Unless either Wyse and Nonis are the second coming of Garrett Stafford, it's going to be the same thing as this year. I do agree on the goaltending, although I would say that after this season, Tirone, as much as I dislike his style, deserves to have a leg up.
I'll use the analogy of losing weight. It takes a long time to become a fat pig. It takes a lot of time gorging yourself on pizza, beer and subs to gain that substantial waistline. It takes just as long to take it off and get back in shape. Just like you and your tummy (not literally of course), UNH has gotten themselves in this mess over a period of years and it is going to take awhile to get out of it. Looking at it objectively, the only positives are, first, that 3 of those 4 senior forwards plus Quast are gone and, second, that Vela, Nazarian and, perhaps, Eiserman appear to have taken their games to another level. But we need more than a few guys stepping up if the team is going to improve.
I always go back to those Kullen years of the late 80's as a template. The seeds of UNH's demise back then started as early as the 1984 and 1985 recruiting classes and did not start to turn around until 1987 and 1988. Five wins in 1986 turned into a .500 record and a Hockey East semi-final in 1990. That's four years. People have told me it is more difficult to recruit than it was back then, particularly when there is a lame duck coach. Perhaps, but recruits were choosing UNH back then despite the fact that Bob Kullen was seriously ill. Going against my better nature, I choose to be optimistic because of this.
Greg, I'm far from an unbridled optimist these days - Umile and UNH hockey have beaten any optimism out of me the last few seasons. I do think next year's team has a real chance to be much improved (though there are certainly plenty of question marks). Maybe its because I see it as one of the last opportunities in a while for UNH to make the NCAA Tournament (unless recruiting picks up ASAP). They won't be a speedy and dominant UNH team of the past, but I think they can be pretty good. Here's why...
First of all, I think graduating the seniors has a HUGE impact on the improvement of this team. Umile's insistence on playing Smith, Gaudreault and MacDonald as much as possible and in specialty situations hurt this team tremendously. That's essentially playing your fourth-liners 20 minutes a game. Not only were they awful five-on-five (combined -38), but they led a UNH penalty kill that was one of the worst in the country. Gaudreault and Smith would just pack it in on the PK as if they were always killing a 5X3. The other major contributors to the PK were Correale and Hill - two more members of the doomed recruiting class. Replacing these players with the incoming freshmen class and proper special teams personnel will be a HUGE upgrade.
Additionally, and this may be an unpopular position - I don't think Correale is a player they will miss very much. His 16 goal season was, in my opinion, completely the result of his line-mates and PP time. Sixteen goals is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but he played first PP minutes all year and his line-mates combined for 32 goals yet Correale only posted NINE assists? To me, that says a lot about his contribution to the line and his ability to keep up as a play-maker. He had enough speed and skill to finish a lot of plays set up for him by two of the best forwards in the country...
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As for next season's roster...
Eiserman - Poturalski - T. Kelleher
I touched on Correale above, and that's why I think Eiserman can be a big improvement on that line. I think you're underselling Eiserman on his speed - he's so big, I think it masks the fact that he is pretty darn quick. While he is not a premier offensive player, I think he has better hands and MUCH better play-making ability than Correale (10 assists with ZERO PP time, etc). So, he should be able to contribute quite a few goals playing on this line and will do more to help Poturalski and Kelleher. He also adds size and physical play that should free those two up to be more dangerous. As for Poturalski and Kelleher themselves, they'll be another year older/experienced, another year stronger and have another year of NHL camps under their belt. This line should be even better, perhaps noticeably better...
Vela - McNicholas - Nazarian
As I've stated before, I think McNicholas has been one of the biggest victims of Umile's deference to the senior class. Whenever he did play, he played first PP time - including time on the point - and proved himself to be one of the most offensively skilled players on the team. Umile's upperclass loyalty and preference to play poor defensive forwards, who are poor with discipline, has really held him back. I think he'll break out and show a lot of creativity and offensive skill next season when he finally (hopefully) gets a chance. He's a pure play-maker who should fit nicely between a couple of guys with good noses for the net. Vela and Nazarian had good freshmen seasons - they improved noticeably in the second half - and showed an ability to score goals, despite playing on the third- or fourth-lines most of the seasons. I like their chances to each pop 10-15 as sophomores and take good jumps forward...
C. Kelleher - Blackburn - Fregona
I think Blackburn could/should have contributed to the team this year - he's a solid, all-around forward who should make a pretty seamless transition. I expect him to be defensively responsible and also add some offensive skill - both goals and assists. He has a lot of Grayson Downing in him, based on what I've seen so far. Fregona is an up-tempo, free-wheeling goal scorer. He might take some time to get comfortable, but I think he'll adjust well. He did better than I could have imagined jumping from HS to the BCHL. By the end of the season I think he could be a fan favorite. C. Kelleher's spot on the wing could be filled by any number of players - but in my opinion he has less questions marks than BVR and Grasso and more skill than any of the returning forwards...
Salvaggio - Miller - Hill
This is a return to UNH fourth lines of yore - a strong skating, hard-working group that is limited offensively but should hold their own and create some havoc. Miller and Hill are relentless skaters and Salvaggio adds some size and some decent hands. Think Tim Walsh, Johnny Rogers and Corey-Jo Ficek...
Cefalu is always going to be a depth forward. Sacco brings a lot of tools Umile loves, but little offensive upside - so he may play a lot. BVR (skating) and Grasso (size) are more talented, but have their respective and glaring questions...
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Cleland - Marks
Cleland should have a big senior season - he'll continue to log BIG minutes and contribute a lot offensively. He'll be a true top-pair, all-around defenseman that should give UNH a lot next season. I think Marks takes a step forward, and at least improves to the point that he gives UNH a dependable first pairing. As bad as the D was this year, Marks was only a -4. He was billed as a puck mover and does have 22 assists over his first two seasons in Durham. I expect this pair should be able to retrieve pucks and work them out of the zone efficiently...
Dawson - Wyse
UNH has a lot of lefty defensemen, so I'll forego R-L and pair the next two most trustworthy and mobile defensemen here. A lot depends on Dawson's ability to develop defensively and Wyse's immediate impact. Let's not forget that Dawson was supposed to play a second year in the USHL last season - he's a candidate for some development and was a +2 this year. Wyse has a good pedigree and hopefully lives up to expectations, giving UNH another defenseman who contribute in a similar fashion to Cleland and give Dawson some room to jump into the play...
Maller - Boyd
I think these two are pretty much who they are at this point - which is not great, but also not a terrible liability on the third pairing. I think Boyd breaks the puck out of the zone pretty well, he's just prone to so many AWFUL turnovers. So if he cuts those down, he brings a nice element to this line. Hopefully, Maller can stay healthy and play a simple defense first game...
I'd like to see Chanter get some consideration for PT, but Umile hates him. I'm sick of watching Furgele. He's a defensive liability (-14). I assume they play him because of his puck skills, but he wasn't any better than the rest this year moving the puck out of the D zone. I don't expect Nonis to make an impact...
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Goaltending
This HAS to be an open competition. Clark is more than capable and deserves a shot to win the job. If he had received a better opportunity early in the season and/or stayed healthy he could have had a big impact on the first half of the season. Like you, Tirone is not my favorite - but a Tirone who is sharp enough to WIN this job would be great news for UNH. If Robinson takes the job and runs with it, that would be great as well. Eitherway, in a true open competition I see someone playing well and emerging as a top-half of HE starter. They can also afford an injury without it torpedoing the position for much of the season...
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Of course, there are lots of 'ifs', but if the young forwards develop, the personnel change upfront adds what I expect, Wyse makes an impact, a couple more D improve and the goaltending is solid - there's potential for a good season next year...
