Ferrrao1994
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What's everyone's expectations for the Wildcats?
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UNH Hockey 2023-2024 Season Thread - End Of The Cellar-Dweller Era??
- Thread starter Scott
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Expectation is UNH Hockey is in the mix for the NCAAs on an annual basis. Might miss every once in awhile and making deep runs once in awhile as well. Maybe someday a National Championship.
What do I expect the rest of this year? At best .500 for the remaining games, maybe host in the first round, not make it past the 2nd round, (no Boston, no NCAAs) coach doesn't get renewed. AD has a plan so that a new coach is found quickly and any high end recruits (the twins) can be retained and there is not a mass exodus of talent (Comny) via the portal.
I think that JB’s expectation for going 0.500 over the remaining 12 games this season is overly optimistic. I envision that the Cats go 4-8-0 the rest of the way, maybe giving MS7 his first winning season, IF the Cats can win their MBPBEGAM round (and then lose in the next round) for a 18-17-1 record,, so no Garden and no NCAA regional.
For a better future, I agree with JB’s take that a new coaching staff is needed (should be a no brainer for the AD if the Cats do not get to the Garden or the NCAA regionals); that Conmy, LeClerc, Devlin, and Hellsten must not leave in the portal; that Fitzgerald improves a lot on the blue line; and that the Ontario twins show up.
HockeyRef
Well-known member
UNH finds a way to go .500 the rest of the regular season. Wins their first round HE game, lose the next. Miss out on the Garden, NCAA's. (again coz this
is like 'Ground Hog Day') BTW going .500 is going to be a tall order for a team that doesn't always show up, especially when they need to. Sorry, tell me I'm wrong
about that.
As for MS7, he gets his first winning season and gets a 1 year extension to see if he can do better with incoming recruits.
With alittle luck we lose no one in the portal.
Have heard that MS7 is directly responsible for bringing in donors for the Whitt enhancement project (this is 'talk around the rink').
Question: do you not renew the coach who has brought in some bucks? Does that influence an AD's decision??
If UNH really tanks big time the rest of the way, then there should be absolutely no
question that a coaching change is needed, even if said coach brings in the entire amount needed.
Interesting... as money talks (or so I've heard)...
is like 'Ground Hog Day') BTW going .500 is going to be a tall order for a team that doesn't always show up, especially when they need to. Sorry, tell me I'm wrong
about that.
As for MS7, he gets his first winning season and gets a 1 year extension to see if he can do better with incoming recruits.
With alittle luck we lose no one in the portal.
Have heard that MS7 is directly responsible for bringing in donors for the Whitt enhancement project (this is 'talk around the rink').
Question: do you not renew the coach who has brought in some bucks? Does that influence an AD's decision??
If UNH really tanks big time the rest of the way, then there should be absolutely no
question that a coaching change is needed, even if said coach brings in the entire amount needed.
Interesting... as money talks (or so I've heard)...
Meh…my understanding is that Dennehy brought a ton of money to Merrimack AND he was winning. Lotta good that did him.
What does “tanks big time” mean? Would my realistic 4-8-0 expectation over the last 12 games qualify for tanking big time? Or, would we need to do even worse than that. I honestly do not see where we get any wins against BC (3), Maine (2), UMass (2), and BU, and maybe I am being too optimistic that we can sweep both Mac and UML, just as I was overly optimistic that we would sweep Yukon and UVM.
HockeyRef
Well-known member
Well its just a consideration and some are already talking about that, tho, I don't know how widespread it is. I don't mean to say that
if he gets an extension that would be the reason why just a part of it. And I don't think he'll get more than a 1 year if he does get extended, unless
UNH runs the table (in a perfect world). Two at the most.
Not that anyone would ever say that out loud as to one of the reasons he gets extended mind you...I mean, what AD would say that, even if it were
true?
HockeyRef
Well-known member
Tanks big time means he loses most of his upcoming games...and I guess, your view could reflect that. I think they are going to do better (slightly) than your prediction but yeah...it's going
to be pretty tough to get points out of those you mention. I think we all know what we're up against. Maybe we all get egg on our faces and that would be ok with me!
"On any given night"...which is really our best hope. We've got some talent to be sure but our main elements like PP are lacking and we
have this preparation thing that seems to plague us. I'd like to think they'll get up for these games ahead because everyone else is.
Love to be wrong!
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Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
I still think they can get to 20 wins. I feel less definite about that than I did before the UConn and UVM losses. But there's absolutely no way MS7 should be expecting to keep his job without a winning record, at a bare minimum. Personally, I set the bar at a winning record AND a trip to Boston, and that gets you a one year reprieve, and a chance to prove that this year's improvement is the start of a good trend - not the apex of more mediocrity. It's already been pretty much a decade's worth of mediocrity at this point, and any more may cause structural damage.
I think once you opt for a new head coach and staff, you kind of take it as part of the transaction that you're going to sustain collateral damage to some degree with your returning players AND incoming recruits still somewhere in the pipeline. You have to leave it to the new HC and staff to make decisions on prioritizing some of the guys you've mentioned, and cutting bait on others. This reminds me of some of the discussions on the UMaine thread after Barr was hired, and how certain posters feared that some of Red's players and incoming recruits would not be back (and I'm pretty sure UMass fans - most of whom post elsewhere - had similar concerns when Carvel/Barr arrived at Amherst) ... but not too many folks seem bothered about those long-ago quibbles now, do they?
Bottom line: when you replace your current HC with a new HC, you are presumably doing so because you think the new guy will do a better job of recruiting, coaching and developing his student-athletes than the last guy did. If he sees value in the current roster that he's inheriting, then rest assured, he will want to let those players know they are firmly in his future plans - be it for the next year, or two, or three, etc. And if he doesn't, he will want to tell those players so they can make alternate plans through the portal, or try to turn pro. Others, he can flat out tell them they can return and compete for their ice time, with no assurances, other than a fair shot at things. The new guy and his staff likely will have a list of their own new targets - be it new recruits, portal transfers - to plug and play if they're already active in the D-1 game.
IF there is a change, and assuming MS7's next landing spot is unlikely to be at a current or formerly elite D-1 destination, there's little danger of the Conmys and Devlins tagging along with him to an AHA or D-3 outpost. But they will have other options, and would likely have to be courted again to stay. LeClerc being an in-state kid, he may be more prone to staying anyway, and may actually welcome a new head coach. Hellsten will have no shortage of suitors for his senior year, and having found success here as a junior, he may be hesitant to move without solid assurances of playing time, which elite programs may be loathe to commit to a one-and-done transfer. I do strongly suspect Muselik will be trying out the portal come Springtime, so Hellsten probably defaults into a full season as top dog, and the new guy gets to go shopping for the future goalie to lead the program back to the promised land. As far as the "Ontario twins" ... LOL, if they're as good as their hype, good luck getting them here regardless, as we've seen with the Stutzles and Commessos of the junior hockey world in the not-so-distant past.
If AD Rich starts saddling her would-be new HC and his staff with mandates on returning players and future recruits/commits, any such HC is likely going to thank her for her time, and move on to the next opportunity, with someone who trusts his judgment. I'm sure AD Rich will ask any HC candidate what their thoughts might be regarding the present roster as part of the interview process, if only to assess how he's likely to run their program in the future. And any HC candidate worth their salt will come to an interview with a well-defined plan, and that's where you decide the guy who is going to do a better job than the last guy did. The next 60 days will be enlightening ...
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chuck…brevity.
Regardless of MS7’s future, I see Conmy as a SEVERE flight risk. What’s our pitch? The program is on the upswing and you’re the centerpiece, and here come the twins to help you! Versus: I’m from the B1G and here’s a bag of cash. Maybe we can find a Patriots cheerleader to be his girlfriend. (note to HR: that’s a reference to actual events that preceded your time).
HockeyRef
Well-known member
Oh my...a Patriots gf? Speaking of a Pats cheerleader my son and a girl in his high school class were born on the same day....and she became a Pats cheerleader had the cover of the calendar twice...we are good friends with her parents. She went on to marry a hockey player..(she also went to UNH)
But to your point this is a very real scenario and concerning. Fingers crossed but like I said in my last post money talks. UNH cannot counter this kind of thing.
What makes him stay??? Surely arena improvements aren't gonna do it...geesh just when we think we are finally getting somewhere we have this to worry about.
HockeyRef
Well-known member
Speaking of RIT was just poking around in the PWR...if the NCAA's started today they'd knock us out of our spot as they currently lead their division. (Please correct if I'm wrong actually it could be a couple of teams ASU or Minnesota State?)
Regardless 16th is a very precarious place to be...with the possibility of winning your conference somewhat questionable. (A girl can dream!?!l
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Of course their numbers are different, but you are completely ignoring who the opponents were.
a
bu and quinnipiac scored more goals (against muselik) than sacred heart and dartmouth (against Hellsten)? How are you attributing the difference to the goalies?
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
You're cherry-picking your data here, aren't you KIA, at least to some degree?
IIRC my point earlier was that Hellsten's overall save percentage was .925-ish and Muselik's was .875-ish, which translates to Muselik allowing an extra goal than Hellsten for every 20 or so shots each of them faces. That's pretty significant, especially in a setting like Hockey East, which always proclaims itself as the toughest D-1 conference, from top to bottom, no easy nights off, etc. Further, I think my second point was that their respective save percentages tracked pretty closely with their pre-UNH careers, with Hellsten in Sweden and Muselik with USNDT. I'm not a stats-driven guy, but that extra save every 20 shots or so adds up to 1-2 less goals/game you need to score yourself to win.
Muselik, like Robinson before him, may have had doors opened for him due to his size and perceived raw potential (although 6th round NHL draft pick is pretty much "hit and hope" as it is for TM), whereas Hellsten is more like Danny Tirone - smaller, undrafted, more agile - and is outperforming his teammate pretty regularly. MS7 sees them both every day, his job is literally on the line, likely highly dependent on finding ways to get W's, and get enough W's to (1) get to Boston, AND (2) into the national tourney, which (3) strongly influences his short and long term future income.
I'm no great defender of MS7 KIA, but I think he's playing it correctly. If you were MS7 ... how long would you stick with a kid who has never consistently threatened a baseline .900 save percentage, when you've got an older, more experienced, and more reliable option on your roster? For Souza, getting this right is literally a million dollar decision, because a new contract with a decent raise is likely going to be worth at least that much more in career earnings, as opposed to much more modest salaries if he is non-renewed and has to take a step(s) down to start his next job. Don't forget, Souza felt compelled to go get Hellsten last offseason, at least in part due to having concerns about Muselik's ability (or lack thereof) to carry the program. It seems Hellsten has been a great get, better than the decent Fessenden (and DF outperformed, TM too).
Was that OK on brevity? ;-)
Since I started this retain the talent thought let me add a little color to what was in my head.
I would NOT tell a new staff what to do. That is why you are hiring them, they need to tell you what needs to happen.
Rather I want the AD to have her ducks in a row so that the non renewal of MS7 is not followed by 3-4 months of crickets, no head coach and every thing in limbo. Uncertainty like that for the players means they will go find certainty some place else. In the transfer portal world that means rats off the sinking ship, whoever is leaving last turn the lights out, etc. etc.
As to how to get them to stay... well hopefully you are hiring a new coach that has a clue about selling a future to 17-23 year old hockey players. That skill is probably the biggest requirement to be a college coach. Getting them in the door is no longer enough, you need to sell it every day to keep them. You could also point out a couple of B1G transfers 1-13 in conference play, 9-13-4 overall, they might have had a better year staying put.
It is up to the new staff for the make up of the team. It is up to the AD to not put that new staff behind the 8 ball by not acting with urgency.
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A good case and point is to look at what happened when Coach Herrion was let go last year, when many of his players immediately put their names into the transfer portal. Coach Davis was able to lure back #1 player Clarence Daniels (who was gathering some serious interest from some D-1 basketball powers) and 6'10" Ridvan Tutic. That, coupled with the fact that coach Davis was able to bring in decent new talent and that Mens Basketball is enjoying a winning season thus far means that AD Rich made the right decision. If you read some of the comments on the UNH basketball boards, several posters have even said that AD Rich "knocked it out of the ballpark" in hiring Nathan Davis.
If it all comes to fruition, I expect any new hire for Mens Hockey to do the same thing, and that is to sell, sell, SELL. JMHO.
If it all comes to fruition, I expect any new hire for Mens Hockey to do the same thing, and that is to sell, sell, SELL. JMHO.
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You must be new around here.
I admit that I learn a lot of sports stuff that I did not know from Chuck, which I appreciate.
Scott, good to know. I didn't pay close attention to the Men's Hoops change other than it happened. Sounds like AD Rich moved with enough urgency that Coach Davis had a chance to retain at least some of the talent if he wanted to.
At the moment there would be two auto seeds, the tourney winners in the AHA and CCHA, but not the Independents. So, that means the PWR cutoff would be 14th, unless I am missing something. I do not think that even going 0.500 over our remaining 12 games would maintain our 16th in PWR, let alone jump back up to 14th, unless the six wins were against BC, BU, and Maine. The losses to Yukon and UVM were devastating to our PWR, especially the home loss to Yukon.
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