One thing I find interesting is that there hasn't been a new coach in HEA this century have much success after their first six or seven years. My takeaway is that in the longer term the coach doesn't make much difference. A new coach can certainly give a program a boost but over the longer term water finds its level.
I think overall, this is a pretty fair take. Assuming you're considering guys like Bazin, Souza, Carvel, Luce and Leaman in that group ... Bazin had almost immediate success, but has seen his program fall off to a generally middle-of-the-pack type. Leaman and Carvel both got to the top after a few years, and both have since fallen off. What is the connective tissue for both of them? Ironically, it's assistant coach
Ben Barr, and if part of your job as a head coach is to hire the best possible assistants, then credit must be given to both Leaman and Carvel for doing that, but once he was stripped away from their programs, the high-level success left as well. It seems to have followed Barr to UMaine (lucky you). In looking at both Luce and MS7 ... I'm not sure they can even claim a sliver of that "first six or seven years" bump, as both have enjoyed a single good (not great) season apiece, and in a combined 15+ seasons, only one (1) trip to Boston for the HEA Semis.
All in all, with the former group (Bazin, Leaman and Carvel) someone like Leaman probably stands above the other two, if only because he also had a high level of success building something at Union (again thanks
Ben Barr) before moving to PC, plus his work at USA Hockey. Carvel's pre-UMass career looks not at all unlike Leaman's pre-Barr time at Union. Bazin came close to taking it all when Hellebuyck was on board, but has receded gradually since then. All three are historically the best HC's at their programs at the D-1/HEA level. They've earned their keep.
Which brings us back to Luce and Souza. Cynically, both had their best years with their programs in a season where it was pretty much make or break, and cashed in (especially Luce). UConn has fallen off from that one very good (not great) season, and it remains to be seen how this season and next will reflect after MS7's lone good season. Arguably, the "water has reached its level" for all five of these guys, and if Leaman, Carvel and Bazin are the "success stories", even if they've plateaued to some degree, their past accomplishments keep them employed. What keeps the other two guys in their current stations, beyond contractual commitments, who knows ...
The only caveat I would add is that the game has obviously changed with transfers, NIL, and now MJ players being allowed so perhaps now the coach makes more difference.
Again, agree here. Show me the guys who recruit the best, or have the best access to recruits. Barr wins the former category, Leaman takes the second category. You know, for several years now, I've been bullish on Barr emerging as the best at UMaine, and I've been spot on so far with that take. I'd say recent evidence has the two UMass HC's having topped off, and riding on past glories (or near glories - my decade old take on Bazin becoming a Umile-type "almost" figure has aged pretty well). I may not be a big fan of Luce (understatment of the decade) but he will never lack for motivation, as he desperately tries to maintain his self-narrative of being the "Barr" to BC's Jerry York (lol). They will all take different approaches to the new recruiting landscape, which continues to evolve. MS7's "strategy" doesn't seem to have extended much beyond a niche ability to spot overlooked/underused goalies on other D-1 rosters, and to convince 5th year defenders to stick around an extra season. I'm still sticking with my pick of UNH being a Top Four HEA team when all is said and done, perhaps slipping down to Top Six, but a team that should have a legitimate shot to make it to Boston, possibly with Round of Eight home ice to boot. If MS7 can't do it this year, he'll never get it done.
And Snives, just because you've asked ... Luce will always get his teams up for their games with BC, it's a personal thing, and the earlier in the season they play, the better for Luce. It's personal to him. If he could work up a lather over himself being effed over by the rest of the 9 HEA programs, he might rule the league. But he doesn't. So ... to the smallest of men, goes the smallest of victories. Sorry, sad but true. JMHO.
Last but not least ... the NESN broadcast showed Coach Umile up in the stands (near the press box?) last night. Penny for his thoughts under sodium pentothal right now, but he looks far from the aloof, disinterested guy casually observing from afar at Bow Lake, as his self-anointed successor struggles to re-establish a winning program. I'm not saying Umile wants UNH to move on from MS7, but I can't help but think this succession plan thing is wearing Umile out, and even he would welcome a new HC whose ability to succeed at a level comparable to Umile would make the former coach more relevant, as he continues to watch on, underappreciated. NESN was telling stories last night about how entertaining Umile was at post-retirement coaches' gaggles, which I'm sure is true ... but wouldn't it be nice if those stories were about his on-ice success? The further we all languish in the current state of permanent mediocrity, the chances of a relevant Umile fade.
We've all had our say over the years about the guy, but the further we move on, I find myself more appreciative of the extended stretch of Good Umile than of the relatively brief stretch of Mediocre Umile. Knowing what he knows now, I betcha Umile would have favored doing the nationwide search for a successor. Unfortunately, in life we rarely get a chance for a do-over, and so here we are, hoping for the best, but in the back of our minds (at best) kinda knowing that our "water" has indeed found its level, and that level feels like drought ...