UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

[Dan]

I don't have to bend in any direction to make the case Robinson is better than his predecessor- I just have to watch the two play. It's pretty clear.

Robinson's start this year has been four great games and one less than stellar game - but I wonder if you have even yet watched the highlights of last night's games to determine on which goals you'd attribute fault to him. Do that before you accuse me of downplaying his struggles...

(As for last years bad Robinson performance - Tirone gave up three goals on 18 shots and was yanked in the same game, so I don't think that it's too far fetched to claim it was a team-D issue that night, either...)

Tirone' start last year was at best four good starts and four less than stellar starts. The difference was UNH's offense put up four a night. I'd take 80% over 50% every time. You? If Robinson is 80/20 on his career that's a lot better than DT who was, let's say, average 60% of the time, sensational 20% and awful the last 20% and it's not close...

Dive past the surface and the starts just really aren't that similar at all. Robinson may never make much of his hockey career after college - who knows - but as far as UNH is concerned this is a Digi to DeSmith type of transition. If Taylor can match or surpass Robinson - all the better. They're the two best goalies UNH has had on the roster since DeSmith, easily...

Wins are a team stat, not a goalie stat - they're equally dependent on the team playing and scoring in front of you. At last year's early season four a night clip Robinson would be 4-1 right now, btw and getting all the accolades, but he's not getting that support so he's the weak link...

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And just for accounting purposes- you said UMass specifically would miss the playoffs and when I posted about why I disagreed you said you'd stick to that prediction. I really don't care though, think of them what you wish. A cursory look at what they've been doing will tell you all you need to know...

But yes, UNH should have had the Carvel blue print ready from day one. They would be a contender now if they had...

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

You're trying too hard (and way too early), Dan. Even the stats don't back you up on Robinson being better than Tirone (yet), nor does it back up your extreme overstatement of the standing of Tirone vis a vis his predecessors and successor:

Robinson (start of 2019) - 90.2 save pct.
Robinson (2017/2018) - 89.4 save pct.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=182215

Tirone (2017/2018) - 91.7 save pct.
Tirone (2016/2017) - 91.0 save pct.
Tirone (2015/2016) - 90.7 save pct.
Tirone (end of 2015) - 92.4 save pct.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170347

DeSmith (2013/2014) - 92.0 save pct.
DeSmith (2012/2013) - 92.4 save pct.
DeSmith (2011/2012) - 92.6 save pct.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123307

Digirolamo (2011/2012) - 88.3 save pct.
Digirolamo (2010/2011) - 92.3 save pct.
Digirolamo (2008-2010) - approx. 86% (over parts of 8 games)

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=99532

When Tirone's stats have been better, you've attributed it to a better team in front of him. Yet Robinson has a more mature and talented defense in front of him this year than Tirone did last year … and last year, Tirone's save percentage was the best of his career, and well above anything Robinson has posted to date. Tirone's numbers also weren't that inferior to DeSmith's numbers, and while DeSmith's numbers seemed to gradually tail off as the talent in front of him waned, Tirone's numbers were on an uptick over his last two seasons, despite those 2-3 seasons being the worst in recent program history. To compare his performance over his career to Digi - who had one surprisingly solid season behind a much more talented squad than the ones Tirone OR DeSmith ever played behind - is uninformed and disingenuous.

The only good faith conclusions you can come to at this point is that DeSmith was a slightly better D-1 goalie than Tirone (and neither won All-HE honors during their respective careers). And that if anyone's numbers are reminiscent of Digirolamo's, it's Robinson's, not Tirone's. Until now, I've left out of the discussion that guys who know a lot more about hockey than either of us watched Tirone and Robinson all year last year, and decided Tirone was the guy who gave them a better chance to compete successfully.

Admittedly, it's early in Robinson's UNH career, and we all want him to improve. I also think we all suspect Taylor is going to be "the guy" going forwards. But to say either of these guys is better than Tirone is a wee bit premature (unless one puts too much stock in how these guys perform in pre-game warm-ups). Again, for sure, if one of these guys proves to be the better D-1 goalie than Tirone, then that's great for UNH, and I'll be a happy camper. I want that to happen, let me make it perfectly clear. I want them both to end up being the best goalie tandem in the history of the UNH program.

That doesn't have to come at the expense of a guy who gave his best for three-and-a-half seasons, didn't crap the bed by any measure, and appears to be in your crosshairs simply because he wasn't the prototype net-filler goalie you seem to favor. Well you've got your wish now. Let Robinson prove your point with his performances, rather than making empty proclamations of superiority, especially when the numbers you've always relied upon in the past don't back it up (at least not yet).

 

[e.cat]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

Go Red Sox!

 

[Dan]

Oh Chuck - I wish I could say it was unlike you to bring up the topic of Tirone's 6-1-1 start last year versus Robinson's first three weekends and then move the goalposts to career stats while adding in Robinson's fourth weekend. But you've never been one to stick to an argument when the evidence doesn't match up to what your anecdotes tell you...

DeSmith is better than Robinson and Robinson is better than Tirone. It is what it is - I'd bet the stats will show the latter comparison when all is said and done. But the eye test has already spoken. The eye test plus CDS' NHL emergence versus DTs nine goals in 100 ECHL minutes locks up any comparison there. Really...?

Have you even seen Robinson play yet? Have you seen this year's team play yet? Cause for better or worse they look exactly like last year's group. The more mature D included - which means they're solid, but prone to mistakes...

I'm not surprised you wouldn't recognize the worst 20 minutes of Robinson's career (5 goals on 14 shots in 20 minutes - and again in a game where both goalies were torched) as an outlier compared to the remaining 500 minutes and 20 goals against. That's a lot of goals you'd have to remove from your comparison...

I'm not surprised you wouldn't acknowledge that one tough game (a game who's highlights you're still willfully ignoring) might skew a very strong five-game sample when citing this year's stats for Robinson. Your stat comparison would have looked pretty silly 48 hours ago - but one game later it tells the story?

And I'm not surprised you would misrepresent my argument - I argued Tirone had a better team in front of him late in his FR year (because they were much improved) than Clark had the same year and I argued that he played a weak offensive slate (because he did). Those are the facts I presented for the one season in question, at the time. Just like the team having a bad game versus NU last year and last night are reality whether you want to admit it or not. Though, I guess if you could dispute my current points you wouldn't have to cross contaminate with old arguments...

Meanwhile, now you're the champion of the Umile never defers to upperclassmen cause? Yes, starting a senior over a freshman is so unusual from DU. It must have been talent alone. Lol...

I'm sorry you still don't have the eye for evaluating talent in, or appreciate the ability to glean information from, warm-ups. MANY people paid to evaluate players across a number of sports certainly can (I learned in your last post you trust this sort of person, but probably not in this instance. And probably not the NHL evaluators who lined up to draft Robinson, right, since it doesn't fit your narrative). So can anyone with simple observational skills. I'd encourage you to go to a game and watch the opposing warm-ups. Watch the guys skate, shoot and handle pucks. Watch the goalies. I bet you'd be surprised by how much you could learn and how easily you could identify the better players without an previous research. You're certainly not embarrassing me when you bring this up, but if it makes you giggle more power to you...

I remember now why I've avoided conversation with you for so long. If you want to have an on-topic, genuine and serious debate about Robinson you can start by watching last night's game and offering an opinion (I'm not going to apologize for pointing out the team's coverage performance and UMass' skill in a game you can't be bothered to watch) - I have no idea why you wouldn't consider that valuable information. But you don't consider who plays for UMass as pertinent information as to how good they'll be so I guess I'm barking up the wrong tree there. Until then I'll go back to ignoring you...

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BTW - Denver's Devin Cooley currently sports a .930/1.64 in six games but he's not better than Robinson or Taylor (and probably not Tirone) either. I can tell that with my eyes. It seems team play does in fact make a difference on the numbers, but talent is talent. I bet that would be news to the DU fans who don't watch the games though...

 

[e.cat]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

Lest we forget, UMASS won the all important SOG battle last night too! Haha!

 

[HockeyRef]

Lest we forget, UMASS won the all important SOG battle last night too! Haha!

....and Robinson made some excellent stops on many of them!!

 

[Dan]

Lest we forget, UMASS won the all important SOG battle last night too! Haha!

My man. Always keeping it light. Honestly you could make a case he should have shouldered up and made saves on 4 and 5 last night. Not sure I'd agree, but you could argue that. Those are the only two question marks past him all year and I saw him steal 5-6 in person at CC. He's THE main reason they we're in either game. But, I digress and I'll move on...

 

[e.cat]

....and Robinson made some excellent stops on many of them!!

Yes he did! He's a goalie and not a sieve

 

[e.cat]

My man. Always keeping it light. I'll move on...

Please reconsider moving on. Chuck is on the ropes now so put him away!

 

[e.cat]

My man. Always keeping it light. Honestly you could make a case he should have shouldered up and made saves on 4 and 5 last night. Not sure I'd agree, but you could argue that. Those are the only two question marks past him all year and I saw him steal 5-6 in person at CC. He's THE main reason they we're in either game. But, I digress and I'll move on...

Agree!

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

Regardless of whether Dan and Chuck continue their discussion about who's the better goalie, one thing that stood out for me at least was the fact that it was mentioned by someone that it took Greg Carvel what, 3 years to bring this program up to where it is right now? And who knows how they'll do going forward (but I suspect they will have a decent year, that's a no brainer). Not sure if I have those numbers right would have to look it up but I'm thinking he's been there at least that. I know most here see the 3 year transition for Souza in the same vein I don't quite agree entirely (the recruiting piece sure and he has brought in I think some decent talent that needs to develop).

It's in playing the games that you find out what you've got in front of you and if anyone hear read the seacoastonline story about this game, Coach Souza pointed out they have "lots of work to do". Lest anyone forget...just count how many Frosh are out there in any given shift...3 most of the time? We took a couple of lousy penalties (MacAdams got a game misconduct I believe?) and they (the 'Cats) are going to have to just be better on many fronts and that's what I'm looking to see from this team is that they improve. It's going to be that kind of season folks and we all get that.

Big competition coming up this weekend and it would be awesome to steal one...(esp. UML) let's go 'Cats!!

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

Regardless of whether Dan and Chuck continue their discussion about who's the better goalie, one thing that stood out for me at least was the fact that it was mentioned by someone that it took Greg Carvel what, 3 years to bring this program up to where it is right now? And who knows how they'll do going forward (but I suspect they will have a decent year, that's a no brainer). Not sure if I have those numbers right would have to look it up but I'm thinking he's been there at least that. I know most here see the 3 year transition for Souza in the same vein I don't quite agree entirely (the recruiting piece sure and he has brought in I think some decent talent that needs to develop).

It's in playing the games that you find out what you've got in front of you and if anyone hear read the seacoastonline story about this game, Coach Souza pointed out they have "lots of work to do". Lest anyone forget...just count how many Frosh are out there in any given shift...3 most of the time? We took a couple of lousy penalties (MacAdams got a game misconduct I believe?) and they (the 'Cats) are going to have to just be better on many fronts and that's what I'm looking to see from this team is that they improve. It's going to be that kind of season folks and we all get that.

Big competition coming up this weekend and it would be awesome to steal one...(esp. UML) let's go 'Cats!!

That was me as well, Ref. Here is my concern with that thought process - recruiting is almost entirely the reason why Carvel has UMass where they are three years later. It started with hiim taking the job and immediately convincing Makar and Leonard to maintain their commitments. Meanwhile, UNH lost Farabee and Ryzcek. Since then, Carvel has put together some of the best classes in the country despite facing many of the same obstacles we hear are hindering UNH recruiting efforts - if not to a more serious degree. UMass also deals with youth concerns - they skate on a regular basis some combination of 10 sophomores and 8 freshmen.

The argument certainly exists that Carvel was able to hammer home his desired style of play the last three years. In that regard Souza was clearly at the mercy of Umile to some degree. So he gets some leeway there, even though Im not sure how different their approaches really are. Everything Souza says about wanting to play with speed and transition is what UNH has always wanted to do. And recruiting is and always will be the most important factor in how good a team is - the Carvel/Souza timelines will always be the same on that front...

 

[Snively65]

Go Red Sox!

Still "just trying to help," I see.

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

As for the goalie debate - I know I said I'd move on, but here's one more point ecat has goaded me into...

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I should give Chuck credit for digging into some research and using stats to argue his point. I've often accused him of not willing to do just that - but its hard to take them seriously when he dismisses statistics out of hand so often. They also represent the very fringes of what was being discussed and they don't actually prove his point - quite the contrary...

First of all, comparing career stats for Tirone and Robinson is a fool's errand when one has played and entire career and the other has played 11 games - allowing outliers like 20% of ones goals against coming in less than 5% of ones minutes played to manipulate the data. Its not apples and oranges. Not remotely. If Chuck thinks its too early to judge Robinson at all, than its far to early to compare career stats. Thats disingenuous. That stats will tell the story when the sample size is big enough. I have no doubt about that. Meanwhile, simply watching Robinson play fills in all the gaps...

Secondly, the stats presented lack context. I know Chuck dislikes DeSmith, but Im still shocked he'd actually assert that Tirone was nearly his equal. I think that is ridiculous, but lets examine the comparison. DeSmith's save-percentage numbers may seem only slightly better (though 1-2 more goals every three games is hardly insignificant) than Tirone's in a vaccum, but how do each's numbers compare to their respective peers around the country...??

DeSmith
FR - 92.6% - 14th in the Country
SO - 92.4% - 19th
JR - 92.0% - 25th

Tirone
FR - 92.4% - 20th
SO - 90.7% - 61st
JR - 91.0% - 52nd
SR - 91.7% - 35th

So DeSmith's worst SPCT finish essentially matches Tirone's best and after that there is no comparison. DeSmith also lost a SR year that would have given him four top-25 SPCT years to one for DT. Oh, and there is that little issue of DeSmith making it to, and playing wel in, the NHL while Tirone struggled mightily in a short ECHL stint. Ty Conklin only posted save-percentages of 92.3%, 90.8% and 92.0%. What should we conclude from that? Was he DeSmith's equal and only marginally better than Tirone? Or is the college game rapidly changing? I'd certainly argue the latter.

Ok, now Im done...

 

[e.cat]

Still "just trying to help," I see.

It's the least I can do

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

That was me as well, Ref. Here is my concern with that thought process - recruiting is almost entirely the reason why Carvel has UMass where they are three years later. It started with hiim taking the job and immediately convincing Makar and Leonard to maintain their commitments. Meanwhile, UNH lost Farabee and Ryzcek. Since then, Carvel has put together some of the best classes in the country despite facing many of the same obstacles we hear are hindering UNH recruiting efforts - if not to a more serious degree. UMass also deals with youth concerns - they skate on a regular basis some combination of 10 sophomores and 8 freshmen.

The argument certainly exists that Carvel was able to hammer home his desired style of play the last three years. In that regard Souza was clearly at the mercy of Umile to some degree. So he gets some leeway there, even though Im not sure how different their approaches really are. Everything Souza says about wanting to play with speed and transition is what UNH has always wanted to do. And recruiting is and always will be the most important factor in how good a team is - the Carvel/Souza timelines will always be the same on that front...

And I would like to say that when Carvel came on, UMass AD Ryan Blandford made a super big deal of him and his staff coming from St. Lawrence and that they would 'transform' the hockey culture at the Flagship...and indeed they have. I didn't really want to bring this up per se because I don't want/need anymore dirty looks at the 'Whitt and I believe there is huge support for Souza taking the reigns. He said it himself this weekend that it was eye opening for them for sure and I believe he and his staff will continue to work tirelessly on improving the current team...and beyond. It hurt to lose those players you mention (and I don't even want to go there about Commesso) but we've gotta move forward at some point. Talking about the past UNH success is all good and it's the back bone of the program, but it has to be URGENT that the landscape has indeed changed and you can't rest on those laurels and the results speak on the ice.

Sooooo to move us ahead, and this is the only way to go at this point, I think we can be optimistic. Recruiting is the back bone of any program and I have to believe UNH can and should, compete with the best of them out there regardless of the state of our locker room I mean, seriously. Player lounges? How nice. Does Union have them? I've been to their rink...nothing but a ton of pride and desire in that building. And a banner. If that's what's keeping quality player (s) from coming here...well, give me a break but I digress. I see NO reason why any player wouldn't want to come to UNH. And I stand by that.

It's true that I really don't have the fan background you all do. I wish I had seen a HE championship or a trip to the FF. But that doesn't mean I don't believe those things are possible for our 'Cats....au contraire mes amies. (my French is lousy...ha!)

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

And I would like to say that when Carvel came on, UMass AD Ryan Blandford made a super big deal of him and his staff coming from St. Lawrence and that they would 'transform' the hockey culture at the Flagship...and indeed they have. I didn't really want to bring this up per se because I don't want/need anymore dirty looks at the 'Whitt and I believe there is huge support for Souza taking the reigns. He said it himself this weekend that it was eye opening for them for sure and I believe he and his staff will continue to work tirelessly on improving the current team...and beyond. It hurt to lose those players you mention (and I don't even want to go there about Commesso) but we've gotta move forward at some point. Talking about the past UNH success is all good and it's the back bone of the program, but it has to be URGENT that the landscape has indeed changed and you can't rest on those laurels and the results speak on the ice.

Sooooo to move us ahead, and this is the only way to go at this point, I think we can be optimistic. Recruiting is the back bone of any program and I have to believe UNH can and should, compete with the best of them out there regardless of the state of our locker room I mean, seriously. Player lounges? How nice. Does Union have them? I've been to their rink...nothing but a ton of pride and desire in that building. And a banner. If that's what's keeping quality player (s) from coming here...well, give me a break but I digress. I see NO reason why any player wouldn't want to come to UNH. And I stand by that.

It's true that I really don't have the fan background you all do. I wish I had seen a HE championship or a trip to the FF. But that doesn't mean I don't believe those things are possible for our 'Cats....au contraire mes amies. (my French is lousy...ha!)

You are 100% correct. If you are getting dirty looks for this post - that is on them. They would likely be upset with you for pointing out what they know to be true, but are not willing to admit or overcome...

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

The funny thing about Robinson v. Tirone right now is that Tirone has it over Robinson in three different ways - better save pct., better winning percentage, and the coaches played him consistently over Robinson all of last season. The coaches also could have asked Robinson to matriculate a year earlier if they thought he was so good, and/or Tirone was somehow lacking in comparison to Robinson. None of that happened.

You like net-fillers, I like more athletic goalies. That's the basic disconnect, Dan. It's laughable that you continue to insist it's a settled issue, when nothing - other than your subjective opinion, with nothing else to back it up - points to a conclusion that Robinson has been a better D-1 goalie than Tirone. Yet. As I've mentioned several times since, I hope Robinson proves me wrong. But that hasn't happened. Yet. At least you've backed off on the slanderous Tirone-Digirolamo comparison.

I have no issue with admitting DeSmith was/is the better goalie, and the best UNH has had over the last decade. He did some stupid stuff off the ice, which screwed up a promising season for him, his teammates and the program. But he's paid the price, turned it around, and earned himself a gig in the show. Good for him. I don't go ga-ga over what he does with the Pens, but I truly don't have any lingering animosity. If anyone wants to carry a grudge, that's up to the folks he let down in the program, or to those directly involved in the incident in question. Having some inside info on the latter issue, I'll just leave it at that.

In the end, I won't let our personal goalie disagreements get in the way of hoping for the best for the UNH program. It's just kind of sad (pathetic?) that you feel compelled to bury a kid like Tirone, who was a pretty good D-1 goalie for three-and-a-half seasons in Durham, only because he didn't fit your model for what a D-1 goalie should look like. The (premature) elevation of Robinson to "superior" status is just you trying to jam your anti-Tirone narrative through. I'll be thrilled if Robinson proves you right in time, just as I was thrilled for e.cat, UNH Football and Coach MacDonnell when that situation eventually turned around despite my doubts. It might just make sense, though, if you wait until the evidence favors you to declare "victory". Just sayin'

 

[Darius]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

I don't have to bend in any direction to make the case Robinson is better than his predecessor- I just have to watch the two play. It's pretty clear.

Agreed. If nothing else, Robinson is enjoyable to watch after four years of DT flopping all over the ice, raising everyone's blood pressure. DT was a fan heart attack waiting to happen. Robinson gives reason to be optimistic that things will soon be under control. He made several good saves on Saturday by being large and in the right position.

Robinson's start this year has been four great games and one less than stellar game

It is early. One difference from last year, this could change with continued losing, is that while clearly out talented on Saturday, the 'cats did not appear to be resigned to losing. I'd like to think that competing against UMass' talent level was an education that our younger players will learn and grow from.

Wins are a team stat, not a goalie stat...

...exactly. Team defense was a big difference Saturday. Several times UMass cleaned up defensive rebounds. UNH, not so much.


Stay classy. Not UMassy.

 

[Darius]

Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

I have no issue with admitting DeSmith was/is the better goalie, and the best UNH has had over the last decade. He did some stupid stuff off the ice, which screwed up a promising season for him, his teammates and the program. But he's paid the price, turned it around, and earned himself a gig in the show. Good for him. I don't go ga-ga over what he does with the Pens, but I truly don't have any lingering animosity. If anyone wants to carry a grudge, that's up to the folks he let down in the program, or to those directly involved in the incident in question. Having some inside info on the latter issue, I'll just leave it at that.

I am SO happy for Casey and proud of his resilience and drive. While stupid and excessive, the off ice behavior that led to trouble was no different than the behavior of many college students. He did let people down, but my guess is that he is not the only one involved who would like a do over.