Re: UND Fighting Sioux vs. UM Wolverines
Here is my take, and I'll try to be as unbiased as I can
North Dakota: Having watched every Sioux game this year, there are some interesting trends. While the Sioux are definitely led by the Pony Express, they also have excellent depth through their top three lines. Their fourth line has been solid of late, and has contributed some key goals over the past few weeks. Matt Frattin has been on a tear all year, and Jason Gregoire has quietly put up All-American like numbers. The blueline is probably the biggest strength for the Sioux, but probably gets the least amount of press. North Dakota is a front running team. If the Sioux get a lead, they almost always hold on to it. When leading after one period, the Sioux have only lost once this season, and if they are up after two, they haven't lost a game all year. That being said, they don't come back all that often.
Michigan: I have only seen about 4-5 Michigan games this year, but what has jumped out to me is Carl Hagelin's speed. I've seen just about every team in the big 4 conferences play this year, and IMO, Hagelin is the fastest. Hunwick has been strong this season, and has been relatively consistent. One thing that would concern me if I were a Michigan fan is that he has given up 3 goals or more 14 times this season going 4-7-3 in those games. Michigan doesn't have a 20 goal scorer, but they make up for that by having 13 players with 5+ goals.
Advantages:
Speed: While North Dakota has speed throughout their lineup, Michigan is one of the fastest teams that I have seen throughout the year. I already mentioned Hagelin's speed, and he will have an opportunity to be very dangerous in this game. It will be interesting to see how North Dakota tries to negate Michigan's speed. Edge: Michigan
Offense: As discussed, Michigan has plenty of players who can find the back of the net. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, North Dakota has just as many that can, but also have the top end scorers. Hobey candidate Matt Frattin leads the nation with 36 goals, and Jason Gregoire has put up 25. North Dakota has depth throughout their lines, and at any given point, any of North Dakota's four lines can take over a game. It is part of what makes North Dakota so successful. Edge: North Dakota
Defense: As stated above, I haven't seen all that many Michigan games, and in the games I have seen, they have been inconsistent. That makes them a wild card at this time of year because are they the defense that shuts down Colorado College, or are they the defense that gets torched by Western Michigan? There is also the possibility that Burlon is back in their lineup, which would help Michigan. That being said, North Dakota has a suffocating defense. If North Dakota takes TMDLICH (2 goal lead), they have not lost this season. The Sioux are also extremely solid with limiting not only the number of shots, but limiting quality chances. Edge: North Dakota
Special Teams: North Dakota takes more penalties than Michigan, but make up for it with a potent PK. Meanwhile, Michigan has been very solid over their last 9 games on the PP, going 10-44 in that stretch, and scoring a PP goal in 8 of those 9 games. In that same timeframe, they've given up only 5 goals on the PK. In North Dakota's last 11 games they have gone 20-56 on the PP, and have only allowed 5 goals against in 49 chances. Edge: North Dakota
Goaltending: Hunwick has been a very solid goalie throughout the season, and hasn't had too many peaks and valleys. However, he has given up 3+ goals in 14 of 33 games played. Dell has given up 3+ goals in 11 of 39 games played. Their Save Percentage numbers are fairly similar (Hunwick .922, Dell .924). They have both played well down the stretch, but Dell has been slightly better. Edge: North Dakota
Coaching: Dave Hakstol has been to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first 7 seasons, and is making his fifth trip to the Frozen Four. Unfortunately for Hakstol he has won only once at the Frozen Four thus far. Red Berenson hasn't been that much more successful percentage wise, but has won 2 National Titles. Red isn't a stranger to these situations either, making 21 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, and will now make his 10th Frozen Four. Edge: Michigan
Intangibles: North Dakota will have basically home-ice advantage. They play at the X at least twice a year for the Final Five, and several players played at the X for the State High School Tournament. There is going to be a tremendous showing by the Sioux faithful (myself included), and it wouldn't surprise me if the building were 50% Sioux fans (if not more). That being said, there is going to be a tremendous amount of pressure on the Sioux. Michigan should be a little more loose, as they are not expected to win, but they will have to play in a hostile environment. If North Dakota scores early and takes a lead...watch out. However, if Michigan can come out to a lead, the Sioux may wilt under pressure, grip the sticks too tight, and the building could get silent. Edge: Push
Overall: In my opinion, the first period will be the key to this game. Both teams are strong coming out of the gates. That being said, if North Dakota is able to take a lead, they have been a team that has been able to build on the lead in the second, and then control the third for the win. If Michigan is able to take a lead, it could silence the Sioux crowd, and put North Dakota in a position that they just haven't been in much this season. I don't see either team being able to come back from a 2+ goal lead, and I think 3 is going to be the magic number. Both teams are excellent when scoring 3 or more goals.
Prediction: I think the first period will be a tight, nervous affair with both teams feeling the other out. I think we'll see a 0-0 or 1-1 type period. In my opinion the game will turn in the 2nd. North Dakota has dominated the middle period all season, and I don't see anything different in this one. With a lead, North Dakota has been outstanding in the third, and I think the Sioux close this one out in period three. That being said, this will be a very close game. Both teams are extremely talented, and are capable of winning it all. North Dakota has been playing great, and if they are able to get a lead they are nearly unbeatable. Final: 4-2 North Dakota
Obviously, I am biased. I have seen North Dakota play over 40 games this year, while only seeing Michigan a handful of times. I am not overconfident, as I feel Michigan could just as easily win this one. This is just how I see the game turning out. I'd also love to hear from more Michigan fans about how they see the different aspects of the game and who has the advantages.