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UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

leswp1 said:
Maybe things are different where you are but up here this is being taken very seriously and we have huge numbers of community spread- outside the medical setting*. There are a lot of politics involved in how things are counted but if you ignore the label COVID and just look at numbers of deaths/hospitalizations for things like pneumonia the numbers are hugely elevated from numbers over the last 5-10 yrs (pneumonia deaths that are 6-10 times that of normal). No matter how people manage to massage the numbers there are a lot more deaths and this is across the country. Our teams play in multiple states with different rules. A number of the States are hit pretty hard.

They may be 'reopening' but they are doing so with multiple adjustments. The rules are not arbitrary, they are based on the current evidence. The legal liability of ignoring any of that is not something they can force to go away. People may want sport but most places are not going to put their athletes up to be sacrificial lambs when they the parents/family can sue, can point to all the ways others have said this is not a good idea if they don't meet measures. The proposed NCAA regs are pretty strict. They aren't required (their way of letting people gamble with athletes' lives) but I think it would be pretty hard to legally defend against why you didn't meet them.

If you look carefully most colleges say they are going to try but almost all of them are not able to articulate how they are going to manage it and give little if any specifics. The big money colleges are talking about testing sequentially but the cost of that is prohibitive and the logistics are also difficult. It is also moot if the athlete decides to go off the reservation.

*just people I know personally- all NOT medical- a family member who was hosp after singing in a choir, a friend who lost a mother and brother (they think they caught it from shopping), someone who caught it from working in a warehouse and their GF caught it from them, another one who caught it from school. (I also know medical people who got it and someone's husband died in a Nursing Home).

**They did random antibody testing in one of the hotspots down by Boston. In 1000 people there were less than 10% with antibodies. Other studies worldwide are showing approx 4-10% of the population have antibodies in random testing even when in areas of high penetration. A lot of people are not going to be comfortable feeling 'safe' for a long time.
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Well, if that's the case then we're going to see a spike and a clawback to a degree.

Am I reading what you're saying that even pneumonia is higher than normal? Should we be talking about that as well then in our national dialog or is that just an unfortunate reality... either that or are you saying that COVID is swamping out traditional pneumonia figures. You also run the risk of having the two conflated as people aren't going to lock down society for the flu and if that equivalence is made then its likely broad society will say "we're at normal". Of course you'd think with distancing the other flus and colds would also be dropping... I don't know. My expertise is in mathematics and I can imagine how things propagate but imagination only goes so far. Either way, I am looking for further clarity in that aspect.

I assure you that where I am they're probably nearly as reticent and restrictive as they are in most urban centers though not quite as much as NJ+NY+New England. I've been saying for awhile that if it can work through our "likely to be infected" populations and say out of the "mainstream population" then this may end quicker.... but those are all IFs... all of those are conditional statements looking for scenarios that might mean things are easier to the end.

If, massive if, if COVID is relatively contained then we are likely to see an attempt to return to normal by fall. If it becomes uncontained all bets are off. I think everybody is engaging in either 1) wishful thinking and trying to turn that into reality, 2) self-delusion of fear which an endemic to humans working through that survival impulse in their mind. I haven't seen a third version I can categorize but I think that's where things fall and being on my side of the viewpoint I know there's a lot of people in the first camp who are doing so on some iffy reasons. I've also seen the second camp but I don't deal in that part of social media much.

I do worry we will see a death spike in the next few weeks... I don't know about cases because I don't know how well we're getting people tested at this point. But if we don't see death or case spike that may say something interesting as well.

We shall see.
 
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Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

Patman said:
Well, if that's the case then we're going to see a spike and a clawback to a degree.

Am I reading what you're saying that even pneumonia is higher than normal? Should we be talking about that as well then in our national dialog or is that just an unfortunate reality... either that or are you saying that COVID is swamping out traditional pneumonia figures. You also run the risk of having the two conflated as people aren't going to lock down society for the flu and if that equivalence is made then its likely broad society will say "we're at normal". Of course you'd think with distancing the other flus and colds would also be dropping... I don't know. My expertise is in mathematics and I can imagine how things propagate but imagination only goes so far. Either way, I am looking for further clarity in that aspect.

I assure you that where I am they're probably nearly as reticent and restrictive as they are in most urban centers though not quite as much as NJ+NY+New England. I've been saying for awhile that if it can work through our "likely to be infected" populations and say out of the "mainstream population" then this may end quicker.... but those are all IFs... all of those are conditional statements looking for scenarios that might mean things are easier to the end.

If, massive if, if COVID is relatively contained then we are likely to see an attempt to return to normal by fall. If it becomes uncontained all bets are off. I think everybody is engaging in either 1) wishful thinking and trying to turn that into reality, 2) self-delusion of fear which an endemic to humans working through that survival impulse in their mind. I haven't seen a third version I can categorize but I think that's where things fall and being on my side of the viewpoint I know there's a lot of people in the first camp who are doing so on some iffy reasons. I've also seen the second camp but I don't deal in that part of social media much.

I do worry we will see a death spike in the next few weeks... I don't know about cases because I don't know how well we're getting people tested at this point. But if we don't see death or case spike that may say something interesting as well.

We shall see.
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This is all in the Covfefe 19 thread. But briefly- they are under-reporting COVID. You can tell this by looking at all the unexplained increases in causes of death that previously remained stable for at least the last 5 yrs. It is not contained. Not even close. They are suppressing the number reporting- in some states forbidding numbers to be released. Looking at some of the predictors- ICU beds, hosp capacity- not good (Alabama had 3 ICU beds open for the entire county of Montgomery on Monday)

So far Herd immunity is not developing even in the countries where they have not shut down and encouraged life as usual (Sweden currently at ~4%).

I 'went to' a really interesting class on epidemic modeling. Problem with predictors is they have to take into account humans being smart or stupid- this is why there are wild ranges in predictions (and why statisticians don't do as well as epidemiologists in predicting- you need to take into consideration all the human foibles- and there are many.)

The issue is without a national plan and with politics motivating reporting and public health policy it makes it extremely difficult to navigate coordinating what happens next. Every locale has a different idea of what is right and they don't trust each other. Try figuring out how transport, what is required to enter to compete, what temperature is considered safe (useless but people seem in love with this)...
 
Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

leswp1 said:
I 'went to' a really interesting class on epidemic modeling. Problem with predictors is they have to take into account humans being smart or stupid- this is why there are wild ranges in predictions (and why statisticians don't do as well as epidemiologists in predicting- you need to take into consideration all the human foibles- and there are many.)

The issue is without a national plan and with politics motivating reporting and public health policy it makes it extremely difficult to navigate coordinating what happens next. Every locale has a different idea of what is right and they don't trust each other. Try figuring out how transport, what is required to enter to compete, what temperature is considered safe (useless but people seem in love with this)...
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They should just go with stupid. :D

Cross state border travel is a big problem. No offense, I grew up in MA, but NH closed bars and restaurants just after MA did out of fear that MA residents from highly infected border counties would come to NH bars and restaurants. This is also a big part of the delay in reopening seacoast beaches. A lot of our reopening like camp grounds, golf courses is for NH residents, out of state members only. Interstate travel is already a big concern and it is only going to grow.

The pandemic is filled with those "where were you when" moments. I'd been hoping to see you guys play BU in the playoffs for weeks, will always remember being at work, thinking about whether or not to go to Tsongas later in the week when I heard the cancellation news and thought, "well there's a decision I don't have to make".
 
Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

Darius said:
They should just go with stupid. :D

Cross state border travel is a big problem. No offense, I grew up in MA, but NH closed bars and restaurants just after MA did out of fear that MA residents from highly infected border counties would come to NH bars and restaurants. This is also a big part of the delay in reopening seacoast beaches. A lot of our reopening like camp grounds, golf courses is for NH residents, out of state members only. Interstate travel is already a big concern and it is only going to grow.

The pandemic is filled with those "where were you when" moments. I'd been hoping to see you guys play BU in the playoffs for weeks, will always remember being at work, thinking about whether or not to go to Tsongas later in the week when I heard the cancellation news and thought, "well there's a decision I don't have to make".
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I live 2 miles from the Tsongas and I was planning to stay home.

Even if you are 'smaaht' things happen. One of the scenarios I think they will have to work out is what happens if they are traveling and someone gets ill? They won't be allowed to get on a plane or a bus. DO you leave them behind, on their own? If they aren't sick enough to admit to a hospital what do you do with them- Where do they stay, etc.

Currently medical recommendation is if a person is sick then they and everyone they have been with have to be quarantined for 14 days unless the target person is tested negative. That is why the NBA shut down. You get one person who plays in a game and that wipes out both teams for 14 days. The logistics make my head hurt.
 
Re: UML 2019/2020: Underclassmen Reign

chiefs11 said:
Liu opening in Lowell
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hearing <a href="https://twitter.com/LIUMHockey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LIUMHockey</a> is putting together very challenging schedule for Year 1, including 18 D-I games so far. Opener at Lowell. Things can change, but games vs. Wisconsin, BU, BC, Brown are on the table, though nothing is official yet</p>— Mark Divver (@MarkDivver) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkDivver/status/1268303621608755200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Barry Scanlon @Scanlon65 Jun 12

Stressful time for college hockey coaches amid the pandemic. Asked for his thoughts about the proposed 3-on-3 OT format which seems likely to pass, UMass Lowell's Norm Bazin quipped, "I don't care if we play 3-on-3 the whole game. I just want to play."
 
https://campusreform.org/?id=15157

I expect a few of you to justify this goose stepping. I'm going to decline from participating in alumni engagement for at least a year over this.

edit: I just submitted a FOIA request. I'm sure its a sloppy request but I'm not a lawyer. If I get thoroughly rejected I might consult one for the next request.
 
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Patman said:
https://campusreform.org/?id=15157

I expect a few of you to justify this goose stepping. I'm going to decline from participating in alumni engagement for at least a year over this.

edit: I just submitted a FOIA request. I'm sure its a sloppy request but I'm not a lawyer. If I get thoroughly rejected I might consult one for the next request.
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Well, That is an inflammatory thing to post. Kind of tough to figure out what has happened. There hasn't been a public statement from the U that I have rec'd (I am an alumnus of the program) and I haven't heard any chatter from the folks I know there- that surprises me if this truly happened the way they described. If the story is accurate, they did wrong.

However- she would have the ability to file a grievance and have it overturned- which would seem to be the correct way and professional way to deal with this. Involving an inflammatory publication before going thru proper channels is probably not the most professional thing to do as a leader in an institution. If this hppened she would have channels available to have it corrected and should use those. Then, and only then, should she bring it to the media. If she is the one who involved the publication (which I am hopeful she didn't) before using the proper channels that is wrong. Being featured in a publication like that is not the kind of baggage you want to be carrying when you deal with students.

The article reads like the Daily Mail or the National Enquirer. The language was so inflammatory it made me cringe. For the record, when you are in a leadership role in any institution you are held accountable for what you post personally. If I were teaching and posted something about the KKK they can fire me. Pretty much every contract in my profession has a clause saying if you do something that is objectionable they can terminate. As a Nurse they can also bring you up before the Board.

What I read certainly didn't come anywhere close to being objectionable but the article saying she can do what she wants is not correct.
 
leswp1 said:
Well, That is an inflammatory thing to post. Kind of tough to figure out what has happened. There hasn't been a public statement from the U that I have rec'd (I am an alumnus of the program) and I haven't heard any chatter from the folks I know there- that surprises me if this truly happened the way they described. If the story is accurate, they did wrong.

However- she would have the ability to file a grievance and have it overturned- which would seem to be the correct way and professional way to deal with this. Involving an inflammatory publication before going thru proper channels is probably not the most professional thing to do as a leader in an institution. If this hppened she would have channels available to have it corrected and should use those. Then, and only then, should she bring it to the media. If she is the one who involved the publication (which I am hopeful she didn't) before using the proper channels that is wrong. Being featured in a publication like that is not the kind of baggage you want to be carrying when you deal with students.

The article reads like the Daily Mail or the National Enquirer. The language was so inflammatory it made me cringe. For the record, when you are in a leadership role in any institution you are held accountable for what you post personally. If I were teaching and posted something about the KKK they can fire me. Pretty much every contract in my profession has a clause saying if you do something that is objectionable they can terminate. As a Nurse they can also bring you up before the Board.

What I read certainly didn't come anywhere close to being objectionable but the article saying she can do what she wants is not correct.
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God I sure hope it was inflammatory... looks like it found the mark. Its not my job to find a more neutral reportage even if it exists. Too bad.

Your acceptance of the system and its related mandarinism is awful for a free society. You're right, campus reform chose to report in its own way and its own time.

Second, she has a broad right to say what she wants as that is academic freedom and it IS a public institution. Thankfully, you're right, it isn't a private institution where they would otherwise get away with such a railroading from a very small percentage of the population. That people face this in the modern era is quite awful and smacks of the excesses of the past. That we language police to such a degree is monstrous.

Now, she didn't support the KKK. She didn't post "its OK to be..." (and even that statement isn't racist, its just poking the metaphorical eyes of the moral busybodies who see monsters behind every hedge). She said something that is taken as a nastygram by a small set of moral busybodies and pencil pushers... a term of phase that you have to do intense political parsing to make it into a bad statement. She sinned before the morality police. This is a public university not a church and we both know she shouldn't have been fired for this. We both know in a fair society nothing close to this happens. I hope that you're not embracing such a lopsided enforcement mechanism for social change. I will do you the favor and assume you wouldn't do that.

Now, I have put in a FOIA request. I expect to be denied wholesale. I believe they will hide around things relating to personal privacy but I have asked for all records of and relating to this dean for the last 90 days and related deliberations. If I must hire a lawyer... I don't want to, but for a FOIA I will consider it. She deserves privacy due by law but UMass Lowell should not be allowed to use that as a shield... and I want no more than I am legally entitled by freedom of information laws. Personally, I think I ought to get materials informing chancellor Moloney of the situation and some preliminary email conversations in and around the issues.

I call on you to admit the university is likely in the wrong if the fact pattern is as presented and both of us will change our minds if the fact pattern becomes otherwise. I see this as an injustice and I doubt this person and I will ever agree on whom to vote for. People should not be called on to kneel towards such extremism. It is in itself injustice and injustice on injustice is not justice, it is revenge.

edit: If we had to have this conversation in any other year preceding this you know I would be in the right... this year is no different.
 
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Patman said:
God I sure hope it was inflammatory... looks like it found the mark. Its not my job to find a more neutral reportage even if it exists. Too bad.

Your acceptance of the system and its related mandarinism is awful for a free society. You're right, campus reform chose to report in its own way and its own time.

Second, she has a broad right to say what she wants as that is academic freedom and it IS a public institution. Thankfully, you're right, it isn't a private institution where they would otherwise get away with such a railroading from a very small percentage of the population. That people face this in the modern era is quite awful and smacks of the excesses of the past. That we language police to such a degree is monstrous.

Now, she didn't support the KKK. She didn't post "its OK to be..." (and even that statement isn't racist, its just poking the metaphorical eyes of the moral busybodies who see monsters behind every hedge). She said something that is taken as a nastygram by a small set of moral busybodies and pencil pushers... a term of phase that you have to do intense political parsing to make it into a bad statement. She sinned before the morality police. This is a public university not a church and we both know she shouldn't have been fired for this. We both know in a fair society nothing close to this happens. I hope that you're not embracing such a lopsided enforcement mechanism for social change. I will do you the favor and assume you wouldn't do that.

Now, I have put in a FOIA request. I expect to be denied wholesale. I believe they will hide around things relating to personal privacy but I have asked for all records of and relating to this dean for the last 90 days and related deliberations. If I must hire a lawyer... I don't want to, but for a FOIA I will consider it. She deserves privacy due by law but UMass Lowell should not be allowed to use that as a shield... and I want no more than I am legally entitled by freedom of information laws. Personally, I think I ought to get materials informing chancellor Moloney of the situation and some preliminary email conversations in and around the issues.

I call on you to admit the university is likely in the wrong if the fact pattern is as presented and both of us will change our minds if the fact pattern becomes otherwise. I see this as an injustice and I doubt this person and I will ever agree on whom to vote for. People should not be called on to kneel towards such extremism. It is in itself injustice and injustice on injustice is not justice, it is revenge.

edit: If we had to have this conversation in any other year preceding this you know I would be in the right... this year is no different.
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Direct quote from my response-
If the story is accurate, they did wrong.

Living a diet of outrage is exhausting. I hope you have enough energy to sustain it. I prefer to save my outrage about stuff like this until I know what happened.
 
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