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UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
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Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
I think this says something about the talent level on this team.
I think this says something about the talent level on this team.
ticapnews
Never Forget!
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Maine Hockey the Last Five Years
The basics: Maine is 67-98-21 (.417) and 37-61-12 (.391) in Hockey East. At home the team s 44-33-8 (.565), on the road they are 18-56-10 (.274) and 5-9-3 (.382) on neutral ice.
Maine is famously 0-14 against Providence in the past five years, but what about the rest of Hockey East?
Massachusetts 12-3-1 (781)
Merrimack 5-3-1 (.611)
New Hampshire 7-8-3 (.472)
Connecticut 2-4-2 (.375)
Boston University 4-7-0 (364)
Lowell 3-6-1 (.350)
Vermont 5-12-2 (.316)
Northeastern 2-9-1 (.208)
Boston College 2-9-0 (.182)
Providence 0-14 (.000)
Only winning 38% against three teams is abysmal. Against the Big Four private institutions in the conference, Maine has a combined record of 8-39-1 (.177). That might be understandable. There is a widening gap between those four and the state schools in the conference. They have combined for the last five regular season titles (tied with Lowell one year) and have taken 90% of the top four positions in the last five years (Lowell has the other two).
However, to have such a poor record against UConn – until recently a member of the AHA – and Vermont is terrible. Despite a 3-0-2 record this season, the mark against traditional rival UNH is still below .500
Maine only has winning records against annual whipping boys Merrimack and Massachusetts.
Month-by-month is no better. 25 months were tracked (February and March were combined) of which five were months with a winning record, five were months with a .500 record and 15 were losing months. The worst was coming down the stretch. In February/March the team had a 14-36-4 (.296) mark. Throwing out playoffs (4-10) still leaves Maine with a .300 winning percentage at this key time of the season.
How does Maine do against the top teams? There are now 60 teams playing Division I Men's Ice Hockey and 16 make the national tournament. That includes that AHA champion which is usually ranked lower, so 15 is a good measuring stick. In the past five seasons Maine is 6-53-3 (.114) against the top 15 in the KRACH. This season Maine went 0-11 and over the last three seasons Maine is 1-38-2 (.049) against the top quartile.
OK, we know Maine's win-loss record is bad, but the strength of schedule is solid so that accounts for some of that, right?
KRACH pegs Maine's SOS at exactly 30 over the past five seasons, so an average team would also be ranked 30. Maine is 36. In the PairWise the Black Bears fall to 38. This season has seen a slight uptick, as the SOS currently sits at 27 and Maine is ranked 29 by KRACH. The strength of schedule peaked in 2014 (as did Maine's ranking in both PairWise and KRACH) and had been getting slightly worse over time until improving this season.
What about scoring? Maine showed improvement in a number of key categories this season. The scoring offense is the best of the five years, up to 21 from 27 in 2014. The power play is also up, from 39 in 2014 to 26 this season. Although the defense in 2014 was ranked 13 in the nation, it had crated to 52, 50 and 51 in the last three seasons before rebounding to a more reasonable 35 this season. Maine is also scoring above it's five year average in the first and second periods, and is tied in the third. However, Maine is now surrendering twice as many goals in the first period of games as in 2014 and were outscored in two of three periods this season. Then there is the penalty situation. In 2014 Maine was the 11th least penalized team in the country at 9.77 minutes/game. In five seasons that has increased to 15.08 minutes/game – a 54% increase. It is true that minutes are up across hockey, as the number of minutes assessed to opponents increased from 10.3 to 12.9 (a 25% increase) but Maine has fallen from 11 to 56 nationally. The penalty kill has simultaneously gotten worse, going from 83.1% to 76.6% this season – 53 nationally. Yes, penalty minutes are up everywhere and holding, hooking and slashing calls are much tighter than they used to be. Other teams have adjusted their play accordingly. Maine has not.
A common complaint among fans has been the repeated bench minor for too many men. This season while top teams like BC, PC and Northeastern were getting two or three, Maine was assessed six times. 24 times in five seasons. Six of those have been in the final five minutes of games. Aside from giving away an extra power play (or canceling one as we saw in Providence) it speaks to a communication problem on the bench which should be handled far better – and is at other schools.
There are other signs of improvement. In 2014 the leading scorer had 43 points which cratered to 24 two seasons ago. That has rebounded to 34. This was the first season Maine finished .500 (7-7) in one-goal games. Maine went 12-5-4 (.667) outside of the conference in the last two seasons.
Incoming recruits are the toughest part of this analysis. Not only are recruits unknown commodities since they may never show up on campus, some may come in different years than anticipated and some may have trouble adjusting not only to the quicker game at Div I but also to life in general at a university. There is also the fact I do not see any of these kids perform in person, relying on statistics and second-hand accounts. In this case I have assembled opinions from people far more knowledgeable than I when it comes to recruits, including a scout, a former player, a current college coach and people in the media. The consensus is Maine's recruits are good, but do not measure up to recruits at rival schools like BC, BU or PC. Most disappointing, the incoming classes at UMass are rated higher than Maine's. The Black Bears are still above UNH, Vermont and Merrimack and should be about even with UConn.
The million dollar question facing us is whether Red Gendron deserves an extension to his contract. I think it is already done. The athletics department handled the musical chairs among the basketball coaches very well and kept both Amy Vachon and Richard Barron. I would hate to think the department is now fumbling a position as important as men's ice hockey coach. If the coach wasn't going to be extended I would expect the school to do as Merrimack did this weekend and cut ties with Red. Therefore I expect an announcement of a two-year extension in the coming days. The alternative is that the athletics department is either in disarray or no longer considers hockey a priority and is content to let recruits, fans and Red himself twist in the wind while a decision is reached. In the past I would consider that, but given the momentum of recent weeks I am willing to believe in the athletics department.
Maine Hockey the Last Five Years
The basics: Maine is 67-98-21 (.417) and 37-61-12 (.391) in Hockey East. At home the team s 44-33-8 (.565), on the road they are 18-56-10 (.274) and 5-9-3 (.382) on neutral ice.
Maine is famously 0-14 against Providence in the past five years, but what about the rest of Hockey East?
Massachusetts 12-3-1 (781)
Merrimack 5-3-1 (.611)
New Hampshire 7-8-3 (.472)
Connecticut 2-4-2 (.375)
Boston University 4-7-0 (364)
Lowell 3-6-1 (.350)
Vermont 5-12-2 (.316)
Northeastern 2-9-1 (.208)
Boston College 2-9-0 (.182)
Providence 0-14 (.000)
Only winning 38% against three teams is abysmal. Against the Big Four private institutions in the conference, Maine has a combined record of 8-39-1 (.177). That might be understandable. There is a widening gap between those four and the state schools in the conference. They have combined for the last five regular season titles (tied with Lowell one year) and have taken 90% of the top four positions in the last five years (Lowell has the other two).
However, to have such a poor record against UConn – until recently a member of the AHA – and Vermont is terrible. Despite a 3-0-2 record this season, the mark against traditional rival UNH is still below .500
Maine only has winning records against annual whipping boys Merrimack and Massachusetts.
Month-by-month is no better. 25 months were tracked (February and March were combined) of which five were months with a winning record, five were months with a .500 record and 15 were losing months. The worst was coming down the stretch. In February/March the team had a 14-36-4 (.296) mark. Throwing out playoffs (4-10) still leaves Maine with a .300 winning percentage at this key time of the season.
How does Maine do against the top teams? There are now 60 teams playing Division I Men's Ice Hockey and 16 make the national tournament. That includes that AHA champion which is usually ranked lower, so 15 is a good measuring stick. In the past five seasons Maine is 6-53-3 (.114) against the top 15 in the KRACH. This season Maine went 0-11 and over the last three seasons Maine is 1-38-2 (.049) against the top quartile.
OK, we know Maine's win-loss record is bad, but the strength of schedule is solid so that accounts for some of that, right?
KRACH pegs Maine's SOS at exactly 30 over the past five seasons, so an average team would also be ranked 30. Maine is 36. In the PairWise the Black Bears fall to 38. This season has seen a slight uptick, as the SOS currently sits at 27 and Maine is ranked 29 by KRACH. The strength of schedule peaked in 2014 (as did Maine's ranking in both PairWise and KRACH) and had been getting slightly worse over time until improving this season.
What about scoring? Maine showed improvement in a number of key categories this season. The scoring offense is the best of the five years, up to 21 from 27 in 2014. The power play is also up, from 39 in 2014 to 26 this season. Although the defense in 2014 was ranked 13 in the nation, it had crated to 52, 50 and 51 in the last three seasons before rebounding to a more reasonable 35 this season. Maine is also scoring above it's five year average in the first and second periods, and is tied in the third. However, Maine is now surrendering twice as many goals in the first period of games as in 2014 and were outscored in two of three periods this season. Then there is the penalty situation. In 2014 Maine was the 11th least penalized team in the country at 9.77 minutes/game. In five seasons that has increased to 15.08 minutes/game – a 54% increase. It is true that minutes are up across hockey, as the number of minutes assessed to opponents increased from 10.3 to 12.9 (a 25% increase) but Maine has fallen from 11 to 56 nationally. The penalty kill has simultaneously gotten worse, going from 83.1% to 76.6% this season – 53 nationally. Yes, penalty minutes are up everywhere and holding, hooking and slashing calls are much tighter than they used to be. Other teams have adjusted their play accordingly. Maine has not.
A common complaint among fans has been the repeated bench minor for too many men. This season while top teams like BC, PC and Northeastern were getting two or three, Maine was assessed six times. 24 times in five seasons. Six of those have been in the final five minutes of games. Aside from giving away an extra power play (or canceling one as we saw in Providence) it speaks to a communication problem on the bench which should be handled far better – and is at other schools.
There are other signs of improvement. In 2014 the leading scorer had 43 points which cratered to 24 two seasons ago. That has rebounded to 34. This was the first season Maine finished .500 (7-7) in one-goal games. Maine went 12-5-4 (.667) outside of the conference in the last two seasons.
Incoming recruits are the toughest part of this analysis. Not only are recruits unknown commodities since they may never show up on campus, some may come in different years than anticipated and some may have trouble adjusting not only to the quicker game at Div I but also to life in general at a university. There is also the fact I do not see any of these kids perform in person, relying on statistics and second-hand accounts. In this case I have assembled opinions from people far more knowledgeable than I when it comes to recruits, including a scout, a former player, a current college coach and people in the media. The consensus is Maine's recruits are good, but do not measure up to recruits at rival schools like BC, BU or PC. Most disappointing, the incoming classes at UMass are rated higher than Maine's. The Black Bears are still above UNH, Vermont and Merrimack and should be about even with UConn.
The million dollar question facing us is whether Red Gendron deserves an extension to his contract. I think it is already done. The athletics department handled the musical chairs among the basketball coaches very well and kept both Amy Vachon and Richard Barron. I would hate to think the department is now fumbling a position as important as men's ice hockey coach. If the coach wasn't going to be extended I would expect the school to do as Merrimack did this weekend and cut ties with Red. Therefore I expect an announcement of a two-year extension in the coming days. The alternative is that the athletics department is either in disarray or no longer considers hockey a priority and is content to let recruits, fans and Red himself twist in the wind while a decision is reached. In the past I would consider that, but given the momentum of recent weeks I am willing to believe in the athletics department.
Ma#1ne Hky
New member
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
So what your saying here is that the 5 years of Gendron have not been good at all...BUT at the same time Maine may have or about to hand him a extension onto next years contract...BUT "IF" this was still a HOCKEY FIRST Program then most likely Gendron would have been shown the door last Monday...........oh well at least there will be still hockey to watch and a lot of it top notch. What use to be, won't be happening soon @ Maine. Again a OH WELL. To one former Black Bear, Good Luck Sean Romeo @ Ohio State...beat Notre Dame and get it done in the NCAA's.
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Great Post! I wonder if it is easy to correlate Maine's penalty kill vs goal differential(signed)? To see if there is a trend line fit between the two and wins and losses?
Also, what do you make of this year's top five freshman matching last year's top five freshman? And if the freshman this year can scored as good next year as this year's freshman? And if next year's freshman top five score as good as this year's top five freshman what that might project too?
Has me a little excited, but proof is in the putting.
Now, I heard on coaches show Red says penalty kill has greatly improved and is at top of the league lately. He implied Maines penaly kill showed great improvement. Is this true with stats to back that up?
Great Post! I wonder if it is easy to correlate Maine's penalty kill vs goal differential(signed)? To see if there is a trend line fit between the two and wins and losses?
Also, what do you make of this year's top five freshman matching last year's top five freshman? And if the freshman this year can scored as good next year as this year's freshman? And if next year's freshman top five score as good as this year's top five freshman what that might project too?
Has me a little excited, but proof is in the putting.
Now, I heard on coaches show Red says penalty kill has greatly improved and is at top of the league lately. He implied Maines penaly kill showed great improvement. Is this true with stats to back that up?
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Good work. Some of that information may have been readily available, while some of it must have taken you a bit of time to compile. Thanks for sharing. I agree that Gendron probably has already received a 2 year extension or will very soon. I suppose if the University says nothing, can we assume he has but one year left on his contract?
Good work. Some of that information may have been readily available, while some of it must have taken you a bit of time to compile. Thanks for sharing. I agree that Gendron probably has already received a 2 year extension or will very soon. I suppose if the University says nothing, can we assume he has but one year left on his contract?
The PK absolutely improved as the year went on. It’d be nice to get more advanced stats on it. Just looking at penalty minutes per game and PK% doesn’t tell you a lot.
ticapnews
Never Forget!
The university can't stay all that silent on the matter. Red and Ben have to be able to reassure recruits that it isn't a lame duck coaching staff. When that word gets out to recruits and their "advisors" word would circulate pretty quickly. If they start offering those assurances and the school hasn't given him an extension then we have a nightmare on our hands. The university HAS to say something soon, and I expect word will come from the school soon. If I had to guess, the department wants to give the women's basketball team this week of publicity heading into the NCAA tournament and news will come Monday or Tuesday next week.
As for the special teams numbers, I can put those together probably tonight and post tomorrow, if no one beats me to it.
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Honestly, I am beginning to see that Ben and Alfie are the difference makers. Where their respective roles lie they are kicking it. It wouldn't be the end of the world to see a one year extension and Red to hand over reigns to Ben and also recruit a great former defensemen for Maine as assistant to Ben. I think this would be outstanding. I have nothing against Red, but I do not like how Maine has finished lately in the last ten of the season.
Honestly, I am beginning to see that Ben and Alfie are the difference makers. Where their respective roles lie they are kicking it. It wouldn't be the end of the world to see a one year extension and Red to hand over reigns to Ben and also recruit a great former defensemen for Maine as assistant to Ben. I think this would be outstanding. I have nothing against Red, but I do not like how Maine has finished lately in the last ten of the season.
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Honestly though, how many recruiters and or assistants have Ben's track record? They have a fairly fresh out of nfl power forward that has play different levels in his own game. I understand he was defensive forward in nhl, but he played in front of nhl contenders. Great nhl teams in Colorado. Also was a huge presence for Maine in our down scholarship years and he helped us win big time.
Ben is a huge asset for Maine hockey. And Alfie is too. I liked listening to last coaching show. You all should. It shows top to bottom, whatever we have they love Maine hockey!
Honestly though, how many recruiters and or assistants have Ben's track record? They have a fairly fresh out of nfl power forward that has play different levels in his own game. I understand he was defensive forward in nhl, but he played in front of nhl contenders. Great nhl teams in Colorado. Also was a huge presence for Maine in our down scholarship years and he helped us win big time.
Ben is a huge asset for Maine hockey. And Alfie is too. I liked listening to last coaching show. You all should. It shows top to bottom, whatever we have they love Maine hockey!
ticapnews
Never Forget!
You're assuming the next AD would be willing to let Red make that call. I don't think it would happen. With all respect to Red, he hasn't come close to earning it. No coach could in five seasons. If the new AD wants to put a stamp on the department there would be few better ways to do it than hiring the next hockey coach.
ticapnews
Never Forget!
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Thanks to the stats tool over at College Hockey Inc I got the numbers faster than I thought. The first two weekends (UConn 33.3%) and Miami (70%) skewed the numbers for the entire season. Starting with the UMD weekend and going through the regular season, Maine was 81.5% on the penalty kill, 29th in the nation. Over the last 12 regular season games, Maine killed at an 86.3% clip, good for 15th. That was good enough for 4th in Hockey East.
In the playoffs, Maine fell back to 69.2%
Thanks to the stats tool over at College Hockey Inc I got the numbers faster than I thought. The first two weekends (UConn 33.3%) and Miami (70%) skewed the numbers for the entire season. Starting with the UMD weekend and going through the regular season, Maine was 81.5% on the penalty kill, 29th in the nation. Over the last 12 regular season games, Maine killed at an 86.3% clip, good for 15th. That was good enough for 4th in Hockey East.
In the playoffs, Maine fell back to 69.2%
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Very to-the-point and factual post. Really nice work. Actual facts!
But, my question is this: How is extending Red going to help at this juncture?
I see two possible outcomes, depending on what side of the fence you're on:
1. Red's incoming recruits will help get Maine to the NCAA's, in which case I could live with an extension, after the coming season.
2. Red gets extended before the fact, and has another lousy season, in which case Maine has wasted more time and money.
In the first case, the program has a chance going forward, but in the second case we're looking at a self-inflicted buyout that Maine can't afford, or another two years of digging a deeper hole.
What, really, is there to lose by giving Red just one (more) make-or-break season? It ain't like we're going anywhere soon, anyway...
I don't see the point in Maine tying its hands in this context. The worst possible outcome would be to throw more money down a rat-hole on a Red extension, and still be looking at a re-build after eating what's left of his contract, once he's fired. Maine has already been down that road.
Very to-the-point and factual post. Really nice work. Actual facts!
But, my question is this: How is extending Red going to help at this juncture?
I see two possible outcomes, depending on what side of the fence you're on:
1. Red's incoming recruits will help get Maine to the NCAA's, in which case I could live with an extension, after the coming season.
2. Red gets extended before the fact, and has another lousy season, in which case Maine has wasted more time and money.
In the first case, the program has a chance going forward, but in the second case we're looking at a self-inflicted buyout that Maine can't afford, or another two years of digging a deeper hole.
What, really, is there to lose by giving Red just one (more) make-or-break season? It ain't like we're going anywhere soon, anyway...
I don't see the point in Maine tying its hands in this context. The worst possible outcome would be to throw more money down a rat-hole on a Red extension, and still be looking at a re-build after eating what's left of his contract, once he's fired. Maine has already been down that road.
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Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Looks like new AD new head coach.
My wish is instead of buying out Reds contract. Ben is promoted. And Red takes role as lead assistant, like Standbrook did. Maybe Red is more like Standbrook? Not a bad trait. In some ways it makes a ton of sense. Just pay that money lost and give to Red as assistant? And let Red win on a different level. He can groom Ben and Alfie. Thoughts?
Looks like new AD new head coach.
My wish is instead of buying out Reds contract. Ben is promoted. And Red takes role as lead assistant, like Standbrook did. Maybe Red is more like Standbrook? Not a bad trait. In some ways it makes a ton of sense. Just pay that money lost and give to Red as assistant? And let Red win on a different level. He can groom Ben and Alfie. Thoughts?
ticapnews
Never Forget!
Looking at it from the school's perspective, giving Red an extension settles things down. Right now UMaine is in the final steps of hiring a new president. Their first job is going to be hiring a new athletics director. Hiring a new hockey coach in this environment would be chaos. Who would make that decision? How long would it take? Would you buy out Red and keep Ben? On an interim basis? Make him permanent? Dismissing Red right now causes far more problems than it solves. A one-year extension would be ideal for the school as it kicks the can down the road 12 months. Maybe it will happen, but I see it being two years. Don't forget that (for reasons passing understanding) the school wants to host a regional in Portland. Uncertainty in the coaching position may not hurt chances, but it certainly won't help.
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2017/18, Red dawn
Is hosting in Portland a true thing? Are we guaranteed?
Is hosting in Portland a true thing? Are we guaranteed?
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