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The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

...at least until his bank is on the chopping block.
Yeah, the quote is bizarre considering the financial industry held us all at gunpoint less than 4 years ago.

Do they assume we have no memories?! :confused:
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Yeah, the quote is bizarre considering the financial industry held us all at gunpoint less than 4 years ago.

Do they assume we have no memories?! :confused:

Considering what is happening to us is exactly what happened to other countries several years ago, yes.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I am wondering if we'll be seeing QE3 soon... Twist II already happened...

I thought QE3 was going to happen last year, but I think there was enough of a 'recovery' to warrant no action on the feds behalf. However as of late this hasn't been the case so I can see QE3 coming soon - especially if the EU/ECP problems start to spread here. ( due to bank exposure to god knows how many derivatives).

I am not going to lie. Lately I have been very pessimistic regarding anything paper. This recovery in the past 4 years was essentially funded by the FED, and with all the money printing going on, I am fearful of owning ANYTHING with counterparty risk.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I thought QE3 was going to happen last year, but I think there was enough of a 'recovery' to warrant no action on the feds behalf. However as of late this hasn't been the case so I can see QE3 coming soon - especially if the EU/ECP problems start to spread here. ( due to bank exposure to god knows how many derivatives).

I am not going to lie. Lately I have been very pessimistic regarding anything paper. This recovery in the past 4 years was essentially funded by the FED, and with all the money printing going on, I am fearful of owning ANYTHING with counterparty risk.

I fully agree that the gains are primarily inflationary. However, a very good indicator to see if something is happening with particular companies is if the stock price has a negative correlation on the day with the corresponding sector. You need to be careful with some of them, though, because a royalty trust (for example CRT) is listed in the Financial sector, but the price is much more correlated with the associated commodity prices of oil and natural gas.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Yeah, the quote is bizarre considering the financial industry held us all at gunpoint less than 4 years ago.

Do they assume we have no memories?! :confused:
If they assume so, they are largely correct.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

If they assume so, they are largely correct.

I believe it was George Santayana who said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." The human race has a flaw in that it does learn from its mistakes and is, for lack of a better word, insanity.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results." --Rita Mae Brown
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Yeah, the quote is bizarre considering the financial industry held us all at gunpoint less than 4 years ago.

Do they assume we have no memories?! :confused:

Errrrr..........no they didn't.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Thought this was interesting...

Stocks 50% lower without the Fed

Basically looks like targeted inflation. Obviously more to it, but its an interesting correlation.

Makes sense. Along with the fed buying toxic assets, some banks had discount windows which basically meant free money. Corporate assets have been doing well, so having money to invest with Low IRs means people will put them into public shares ( generally). Basically, any quantitative easing by the fed means the stock market will likely remain at elevated levels.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Thought this was interesting...

Stocks 50% lower without the Fed

Basically looks like targeted inflation. Obviously more to it, but its an interesting correlation.

I don't really agree with this.

Sure the markets are usually reactions to the news of the day. But my guess is that both the magnitude of the moves up and down adjust for much of the 'news' that doesn't end up being substance. I guess for starters I don't agree with piece's assumption in this analysis is that fed moves push the markets higher...and that in subsequent days there is no readjustment back downwards due to corresponding selloffs or that the market just being too high.

One reason why I believe this is that of day or swing traders. I thought I remember hearing that swing trading has grown substantially (cannot find source) and regardless, we know they are a big part of the market is swing trading...and day or swing traders buy and sell within days of purchase. And day traders are heavily into buying the rumor and selling the news. So we know that a big chunk of those pre fed purchases end up disappearing for sure.

Likewise my suspicions are that a big chunk of normal trades end up being sales also. Why would I guess that? Because major investors and analysts recommending stocks recommend them based on PE ratios. If stocks were being purchased based on fed announcements and the market was even 20% too high (saying nothing about %100)...PE ratios would be off the charts and the whole concept of PE ratios as a measuring stick would have been thrown out years ago as a meaningless moving target. So in the end, day to day moves are based on news but they are tempered by subsequent counter moves and in the end...the general position of stocks and the market as a whole is pretty accurate based on other harder measures of corporate sector performance.

Make sense?
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I don't really agree with this.

Sure the markets are usually reactions to the news of the day. But my guess is that both the magnitude of the moves up and down adjust for much of the 'news' that doesn't end up being substance. I guess for starters I don't agree with piece's assumption in this analysis is that fed moves push the markets higher...and that in subsequent days there is no readjustment back downwards due to corresponding selloffs or that the market just being too high.

One reason why I believe this is that of day or swing traders. I thought I remember hearing that swing trading has grown substantially (cannot find source) and regardless, we know they are a big part of the market is swing trading...and day or swing traders buy and sell within days of purchase. And day traders are heavily into buying the rumor and selling the news. So we know that a big chunk of those pre fed purchases end up disappearing for sure.

Likewise my suspicions are that a big chunk of normal trades end up being sales also. Why would I guess that? Because major investors and analysts recommending stocks recommend them based on PE ratios. If stocks were being purchased based on fed announcements and the market was even 20% too high (saying nothing about %100)...PE ratios would be off the charts and the whole concept of PE ratios as a measuring stick would have been thrown out years ago as a meaningless moving target. So in the end, day to day moves are based on news but they are tempered by subsequent counter moves and in the end...the general position of stocks and the market as a whole is pretty accurate based on other harder measures of corporate sector performance.

Make sense?

If you want any indication of day trading or high frequency trading, simply look at the volume of shares traded for specific stocks, and have it charted out over 2 or 5 minute intervals for the day.

In the short term, you will see plenty of fluctuation based upon news, especially given everyone now knows that the market is very volatile, so you see lots of panicking, celebrating, and such. I remember when I started investing on my own in 2009, this happened a lot. You may even see people ex-dividend trading, which causes some fluctuation. In the long term, though, a company's fundamentals will definitely dictate the market price. There's enough of a balance that the market doesn't move THAT much due to said news, but enough to notice. If you're in it for the very short term, play the news. If you're in for the short-to-mid-to-long term, play the fundamentals. The biggest thing, though, is to have a plan, and discipline yourself into sticking with the plan. That last sentence helped me make 10% off my investment in Facebook in the course of about a month.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I believe it was George Santayana who said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." The human race has a flaw in that it does learn from its mistakes and is, for lack of a better word, insanity.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results." --Rita Mae Brown
"It is one of the serious evils of our present system of banking that it enables one class of society–and that by no means a numerous one–by its control over the currency, to act injuriously upon the interests of all the others and to exercise more than its just proportion of influence in political affairs. The agricultural, the mechanical, and the laboring classes have little or no share in the direction of the great moneyed corporations, and from their habits and the nature of their pursuits they are incapable of forming extensive combinations to act together with united force...The mischief springs from the power which the moneyed interest derives from a paper currency which they are able to control, from the multitude of corporations with exclusive privileges which they have succeeded in obtaining in the different States, and which are employed altogether for their benefit; and unless you become more watchful in your States and check this spirit of monopoly and thirst for exclusive privileges you will in the end find that the most important powers of Government have been given or bartered away, and the control over your dearest interests has passed into the hands of these corporations."

- Andrew Jackson 1837
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Thought this was interesting...

Stocks 50% lower without the Fed

Basically looks like targeted inflation. Obviously more to it, but its an interesting correlation.

Correlation does not prove causation.

If the market was in reality 50% lower on the whole, significant changes in the fundamentals of the companies would have to change: companies earnings and revenue would have to fall to be in line with those valuations, which would require that the overall economy was significantly smaller. Thus is is just as fair to say that the economy is larger today because of the actions of the fed.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Correlation does not prove causation.

If the market was in reality 50% lower on the whole, significant changes in the fundamentals of the companies would have to change: companies earnings and revenue would have to fall to be in line with those valuations, which would require that the overall economy was significantly smaller. Thus is is just as fair to say that the economy is larger today because of the actions of the fed.

well think of it this way - QE basically allows for cheaper money to enter the market via ZIRP. Now, if I was a corporation or a hedge fund who wanted to maximize returns, where would I put that money? Believe it or not, many corporations are sitting well in regards to their liquidity. Apple is a common long for many hedge funds (Greenlight capital, Riaff partners etc). When your hedge fund valued in the hundreds of millions has a 15% portfolio in these types of blue chips and you get good returns, do you think its advantageous to take a "risk" and invest in American labor which is costly? It seems institutions and money funds prefer the 'safe' haven of the S&P 500 when it comes to parking their money. QE in my mind has facilitated the general bullish trend in the major indexies. With little interest in borrowing, as well as many toxic assets freed up, it pays to invest in public blue chips.

The bullish upward trend seems to coincide with QE , but no one can be certain obviously. It makes some sense though that if there is cheap money to borrow, the best thing to do with it is go long in companies with good balance sheets and growth prospects. Unfortauntly, more money is being funneled there instead of actually growing our economy, especially when you consider the outsourcing the bigger companies partake in.

For now I am out of the market. Actually, I dislike ANYTHING with counterparty risk and will likely build a portfolio around physical assets, or personal business ventures. My retirement funds are parked in a very disappointing treasury bonds which are barely outpacing inflation.. Sad panda :(
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

well think of it this way - QE basically allows for cheaper money to enter the market via ZIRP. Now, if I was a corporation or a hedge fund who wanted to maximize returns, where would I put that money? Believe it or not, many corporations are sitting well in regards to their liquidity. Apple is a common long for many hedge funds (Greenlight capital, Riaff partners etc). When your hedge fund valued in the hundreds of millions has a 15% portfolio in these types of blue chips and you get good returns, do you think its advantageous to take a "risk" and invest in American labor which is costly? It seems institutions and money funds prefer the 'safe' haven of the S&P 500 when it comes to parking their money. QE in my mind has facilitated the general bullish trend in the major indexies. With little interest in borrowing, as well as many toxic assets freed up, it pays to invest in public blue chips.

The bullish upward trend seems to coincide with QE , but no one can be certain obviously. It makes some sense though that if there is cheap money to borrow, the best thing to do with it is go long in companies with good balance sheets and growth prospects. Unfortauntly, more money is being funneled there instead of actually growing our economy, especially when you consider the outsourcing the bigger companies partake in.

For now I am out of the market. Actually, I dislike ANYTHING with counterparty risk and will likely build a portfolio around physical assets, or personal business ventures. My retirement funds are parked in a very disappointing treasury bonds which are barely outpacing inflation.. Sad panda :(

Treasuries? You could get a better deal with a certificate of deposit!

It is true that many companies wish to sit on capital, even those with no debt. I don't blame you with some stocks not being the way to go, as I have a good chunk of money in fossil fuel harvesting. Physical gold is also good (not the ETF). However, there are some stocks that outperform, you just have to find them.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Treasuries? You could get a better deal with a certificate of deposit!

It is true that many companies wish to sit on capital, even those with no debt. I don't blame you with some stocks not being the way to go, as I have a good chunk of money in fossil fuel harvesting. Physical gold is also good (not the ETF). However, there are some stocks that outperform, you just have to find them.

agreed, but the time I can put into this isn't sufficient to find them. I have a few selections in mind that ill be pulling the trigger on soonish
 
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