What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Less than an hour till the market opens. What's.your guess on FB's high and close price for today?
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

joecct said:
Less than an hour till the market opens. What's.your guess on FB's high and close price for today?
Click to expand...
Plenty of idiots are gonna buy it. Due to sell off it will probably close in the 60s.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

unh_hockey said:
A few fun facts: there are a TON of derivative products tied up in the EU zone right now via products similar to CDOs and CDS. Much like the sub prime crash, we are seeing a major bank starting to show signs of weakness as we are seeing with JPMs trading losses. Could this be the first sign like bear sterns was? Greece is on the way out, and this will inevitably affect the rest of the EU. Due to the inter connectivity of the EU banking system, spain, italy, france and Portugal are not far behind. Its very possible the EU currency might suffer greatly, but with the exposure of american banks to derivatives this means that we might see another similar drop as we did in 2008. Check the books - in some cases like BOA, JPM, Goldman, its estimated their derivative exposure is MUCH higher than their assets ( other major banks don't have quite the leverage), so if these derivatives are tied up in more 'toxic' assets, you can bet that these chains of events will have an effect on banks in the USA, and subsequently our indecies ( DJIA, S&P etc).

Long story short, I am out of equities right now. My retirement fund is all US government bonds at a measly 3%. ****it, I'd rather barely beat inflation than lose half my retirement like in 2008.

On another story, is anyone going to buy FB's first offering? 38 $ per share values the company at 100 billion. It doesn't make that much money. However, neither does LINKEDIN, but it trades at 600 times earnings which is, to say the least, expensive. Gotta love the hype...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the thoughts and probably reality check. Perhaps a short on the euro is not bad thinking. I'd hate to chase it tho. If anything have to move quick...its probably a bit more risky if you get below 1.25/$.

I do think FB is overhyped. I do think Linkedin, although superoverpriced has a chance to go crazy with overseas growth and monitization over the next decade (it is all about biz and there is an opportunity for many marketplaces there). Although there are companies that haven't panned out, I do think Linkedin of all of them could go the way of Amazon.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

5mn_Major said:
Thanks for the thoughts and probably reality check. Perhaps a short on the euro is not bad thinking. I'd hate to chase it tho. If anything have to move quick...its probably a bit more risky if you get below 1.25/$.

I do think FB is overhyped. I do think Linkedin, although superoverpriced has a chance to go crazy with overseas growth and monitization over the next decade (it is all about biz and there is an opportunity for many marketplaces there). Although there are companies that haven't panned out, I do think Linkedin of all of them could go the way of Amazon.
Click to expand...

We have seen pure social media sites crash and burn before. It might be that facebook has reached critical membership level that is going to allow it to be self-sustaining even if the young croud moves on to something new as the 25+ age group (post college age) use it to stay connected with far flung friends and family members. How successful facebook is will depend on how sticky it turns out to be with the current 25 to 40 age group who have adopted it in mass as their lives evolve and change.

Linkedin is similar, but depends on having HR departments be willing to adopt it as a one-stop shopping location for employment and reference information. If that happens, I think that the potential value of Linkedin is huge considering that people are becoming much more fluid with their job state. Honestly, if american society manages to decouple health insurance from employment I can see the private sector employment structure shift almost to a contract employment type of situation for many people. In that type of case, Linkedin would be incredibly valuable to both the employee and the employer.

I don't know if either case is going to happen, but I'd bet on Linkedin since they have a way to monetize directly from companies as opposed to just through users and I don't see us emplyment becoming anything but more fluid in the years to come.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Almington said:
Linkedin is similar, but depends on having HR departments be willing to adopt it as a one-stop shopping location for employment and reference information. If that happens, I think that the potential value of Linkedin is huge considering that people are becoming much more fluid with their job state. Honestly, if american society manages to decouple health insurance from employment I can see the private sector employment structure shift almost to a contract employment type of situation for many people. In that type of case, Linkedin would be incredibly valuable to both the employee and the employer.

I don't know if either case is going to happen, but I'd bet on Linkedin since they have a way to monetize directly from companies as opposed to just through users and I don't see us emplyment becoming anything but more fluid in the years to come.
Click to expand...

You and me both. Linkedin has potential.

Now think in terms of Wal Mart or Amazon. Wal Mart added groceries, insurance, literally everything someone in one of their towns would want. Amazon went from books and now their goal is to carry every product made.

Now what if Linkedin had that mindset...to become everything possible to business including recruitment, services want ads, marketplaces for every imaginable finished good, marketplace for raw materials, consulting, transportation hubs, customer relations management, capital markets, investments, etc, all targeting business. And unlike FB which is consumer based...Linkedin would not alienate its users with all these services, but rather offer enormous benefits in a one stop shop for them.

This is very from from where they're at. But there is nobody else in the world that is positioned to pull this vision off.
 
Last edited:
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Little late but I watched the FB IPO throughout the day. What a fascinating battle. I'd consider it a successful IPO. For various reasons.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

dxmnkd316 said:
Little late but I watched the FB IPO throughout the day. What a fascinating battle. I'd consider it a successful IPO. For various reasons.
Click to expand...

The media disagrees for a high flyer.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-made-big-bet-020751539.html
The debut marks a rare stumble for a high-profile IPO. Facebook is the only recent U.S. internet listing not to enjoy a large price jump on its first day of trading. LinkedIn (NYS:LNKD - News), Groupon (GRPN.O) and Pandora Media (NYS:P) all saw significant gains at their public debuts.
The debut also underscores Morgan Stanley's go-it-alone handling of the offering process. Though 32 other underwriters signed on to the deal, Morgan Stanley retained tight control over information, decisions and allocations of shares, according to other underwriters.
Click to expand...

I actually like some of the solar plays (FLSR down 90%), although they seem to be burning cash at high levels... it might be one of the survivors.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Pssh.. A well-priced IPO shouldn't have a huge pop unless they are looking to drum up interest in the media. (See LinkedIn.) Facebook didn't need the huge pops to drum up interest. They already had it. This private sellers gained the most money they could have gotten from the deal basically. Say the stock was priced at $10 and settled on $20. That's a $10 spread the private sellers lost out on. In this case the sellers got the most they could have out of the deal.

So like I said, the media in this case are the mindless masses looking for a Michael Bay movie. *yawn*
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

And there's the sell-off we all expected, FB down around 33 1/2. Darn broker not letting me short...
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I'm actually kind of surprised it's down this much to be completely honest.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Facebook closed down 11%. That's a $2B loss for Zuckerberg.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

dxmnkd316 said:
I'm actually kind of surprised it's down this much to be completely honest.
Click to expand...

Google did similar in its IPO, going I believe it was about 125 to 100 (I lost my source on this, but plenty of sites have historic stock prices) before finally taking off. I decided to buy Facebook into the dip with my typical 10/15/25/50 strategy. $32.50-$27 is my range. However, I'm giving it two weeks (about the time it took Google to hit the vertex of the V). If I don't get any stock, so be it, I missed out, and I'll pick something else. If I end up getting some, they have 3 weeks to show some numbers before I sell, and even then, I'd look to play with house money.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
Only if he sells today, and that's also assuming he held onto his stock (I'm sure we would have heard if he didn't).
Click to expand...
There's no fun in reporting that :p
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
Google did similar in its IPO, going I believe it was about 125 to 100 (I lost my source on this, but plenty of sites have historic stock prices) before finally taking off. I decided to buy Facebook into the dip with my typical 10/15/25/50 strategy. $32.50-$27 is my range. However, I'm giving it two weeks (about the time it took Google to hit the vertex of the V). If I don't get any stock, so be it, I missed out, and I'll pick something else. If I end up getting some, they have 3 weeks to show some numbers before I sell, and even then, I'd look to play with house money.
Click to expand...

You won't see anything for another three months when they have their first report to give.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
Google did similar in its IPO, going I believe it was about 125 to 100 (I lost my source on this, but plenty of sites have historic stock prices) before finally taking off.
Click to expand...

In hindsight GOOG at 25billion market cap at IPO was a good deal, it closed around $105. Problem with FB is that they are trading way ahead of themselves in market cap vs revenue and earning. GOOG at 600/share at 195billion market cap vs FB at 38/share at $100billion.

http://news.cnet.com/Google-slashes-IPO-price/2100-1024_3-5313952.html
Google on Wednesday reduced the price range for its long-awaited initial public offering to between $85 and $95 per share, and lowered the number of shares being sold by company executives.
The changes cut the value of the company by almost 30 percent--to $25.8 billion

The numbers of shares offered has also dropped to 19.6 million from 25.7 million. Several executives, including company founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Chief Executive Eric Schmidt, cut in half the number of shares they will offer
Click to expand...

I think we'll get more bargains later in july/august period so I would raise some cash. And get ready to buy some dogs... looks like natural gas companies are getting killed with the lower NG prices so there should be some value investment in that sector. Or you could pick the high flyers on the swoon that's about to commence in the summer.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

And already, people are suing Facebook and the stock rating companies for making them lose money. I'll be shocked if a judge actually hears the case. Don't get me started on CBS MarketWatch calling Facebook the new Lehman Brothers.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top