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The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

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Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

unofan said:
You'll have at least one chance to see if the liberal wing can carry a seat. The Dem nomination for Omaha's congressional seat went to a progressive wing candidate over the moderate. And most forecasters promptly moved the seat from toss up to leans GOP.
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Well yeah after the DCCC pulls all funding I'm sure she'll have an uphill battle, shocking...
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

trixR4kids said:
Well yeah after the DCCC pulls all funding I'm sure she'll have an uphill battle, shocking...
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When you have a limited pool of resources, you triage. If she doesn't have a chance there's no reason to waste gobs of money on her campaign.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

dxmnkd316 said:
When you have a limited pool of resources, you triage. If she doesn't have a chance there's no reason to waste gobs of money on her campaign.
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Right but that's not what the research has shown in terms of how they're picking who to support. They've spent more money on not close races for more centrist types which shows that it's more ideological than anything.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

trixR4kids said:
Right but that's not what the research has shown in terms of how they're picking who to support. They've spent more money on not close races for more centrist types which shows that it's more ideological than anything.
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Source?
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Source?
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David Dayen of the Intercept mentioned that he was going to write an article about it soon but didn’t cite the specific study. He might be referring to this one but I’m not sure.

Recent scholarship has argued that parties strategically support more moderate, and thus more electable, candidates. Using interviews with party elites and new data on the party support and the ideology of primary candidates for the US Senate, I show that parties do support moderate candidates. However, using evidence from districts with different levels of competitiveness and over time, I find that support of moderate candidates appears not to be strategic. Rather, party support of moderate candidates appears to be the result of the ideological preferences of party leadership rather a strategic effort to win elections.
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https://people.cornellcollege.edu/hhassell/Scholarly%20Work/Hassell,%20Parties%20as%20Moderators.pdf

Not that this is shocking by any means, there has been zero instances anyone can think of where the DCCC came in to support the more left leaning candidate.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

trixR4kids said:
Not that this is shocking by any means, there has been zero instances anyone can think of where the DCCC came in to support the more left leaning candidate.
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Wasn't there some brouhaha in the PA 7th primary last week of the DCCC trying to get one of the two more liberal candidates to switch to a different race so that they wouldn't split the vote and allow the conservadem candidate to win the nomination? Seems like that's an instance of them trying to get a more left leaning candidate as the nominee.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

Rover said:
Wasn't there some brouhaha in the PA 7th primary last week of the DCCC trying to get one of the two more liberal candidates to switch to a different race so that they wouldn't split the vote and allow the conservadem candidate to win the nomination? Seems like that's an instance of them trying to get a more left leaning candidate as the nominee.
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From 538:

Two Pennsylvania congressional primaries also pitted progressivism against pragmatism, and the progressives went two for two. In the 1st District, philanthropist Scott Wallace, the grandson of the Progressive Party’s 1948 presidential nominee, defeated former Navy prosecutor Rachel Reddick 56 percent to 35 percent. Reddick had made her conversion from the GOP a centerpiece of her campaign. In the 7th District, a split in the progressive vote nearly caused Democrats to nominate Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli, who has made comments friendly to Trump and not-so-friendly to undocumented immigrants. However, Allentown City Solicitor Susan Wild defeated him 33 to 30 percent, with Bernie Sanders-endorsed pastor Greg Edwards in third with 26 percent. More than Nebraska’s 2nd District, both the 1st and 7th Districts in Pennsylvania are true swing districts, with a partisan lean of R+1 and D+0.04, respectively — in other words, they’re almost perfect bellwethers for the nation as a whole. So Democrats have a little more margin for error there in such a Democratic-leaning national political environment. (Of course, if that environment changes … )
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That whole 538 article suggests liberalism is continuing to reassert itself over Third Way, at least in purple districts. Hopefully the DCCC will see the light and fully support liberals rather than sabotage them. I guess we will see whether the DNC and Establishment are honestly scared of stressing liberal themes because of their learned helplessness in the face of right wing violence, or whether they're a literal 1% fifth column that took over the party to defang it of liberal threats to the plutes and deprive Americans of their democratic voice.

We shall see.
 
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Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

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Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

Wow, great news. I don't think I've seen this here...

Pawlenty says he won’t seek GOP endorsement, inviting ridicule from Johnson

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has announced he plans to skip early June’s Republican state convention and go straight to the Aug.14 primary, drawing sharp criticism from another GOP candidate in the race and the Democratic Party. Pawlenty’s decision means he won’t be seeking the party’s endorsement.

In a statement Tuesday, his campaign said the two-term former governor “appreciates the convention delegates, but his late entry into the race effectively precluded a fair fight for endorsement at the convention.” Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, viewed as the front-runner for endorsement, said in a statement Tuesday that Pawlenty “claims to be the ‘A Team’ and the only strong Republican in the race, but a strong candidate would be able to win the support of the most active Republicans in MN. If he can’t even compete for the support of his base, he’ll be a disaster in the General Election.”

The Democratic Governors Association said in a statement, “recent Wall Street lobbyist Tim Pawlenty, who represents the perfect ideal of everything voters are rejecting in the Trump-era, will forgo courting base Republican activists because he is afraid he will lose the convention process.”

https://www.twincities.com/2018/05/15/tim-pawlenty-gop-endorsement-mn-governor-race/

Also:

Former Lt. Gov. snubs old boss Tim Pawlenty, endorses Jeff Johnson

Former Minnesota Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau has endorsed a Republican running for governor, but it’s not the man she was elected with twice. Molnau endorsed Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson on Friday. She served from 2003 to 2011 as the second-in-command to former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is also running for his old job. Molnau says she considers Johnson “the most electable Republican” running. Asked if she thought Pawlenty shouldn’t get the job again, she said: “I just haven’t thought about Mr. Pawlenty at all.” It’s a campaign jab at the former two-term governor who formally entered the race last month.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/05/04/tim-pawlenty-lt-gov-carol-molnau-endorses-jeff-johnson/
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

What? Is this for real? Because that’s a pretty serious self-inflicted would.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

Its the only chance he had to make any sort of run for the office. He knew he couldnt win the nomination so dont even try. If he gets trounced early he is DOA just like Chris Coleman was. The man is not liked on both sides just like I told you so he is basically a non-factor except with old Dubya lovers which means Jeff Johnson's base is losing some votes.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

Excellent!

ETA: seriously this couldn’t be a better result. It pulls off the people who would have voted for a known name only. Even if he pulls off a few percent that’s enough to kill both of them.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Excellent!

ETA: seriously this couldn’t be a better result. It pulls off the people who would have voted for a known name only. Even if he pulls off a few percent that’s enough to kill both of them.
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I'm not following what you're saying. What do you mean "enough to kill both of them"? Presumably one of them will win the primary, no?
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

GrinCDXX said:
I'm not following what you're saying. What do you mean "enough to kill both of them"? Presumably one of them will win the primary, no?
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Yes I think dx is confused. He is still trying to win the Primary he is just skipping the convention since he has no chance to get the endorsement. He is challenging at the Primary.

He is going to get killed in the Primary.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

Really speaks to arrogance when you skip your own party's convention. He's going to get creamed.
 
Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Really speaks to arrogance when you skip your own party's convention. He's going to get creamed.
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Its not arrogance, its strategy. He would AT BEST finish third in the balloting at the convention meaning he would likely drop out before the primary.
 
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