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The States: Maybe A National Divorce Is A Good Idea After All

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Never change, Oregon.

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RaceBoarder said:
Then can you explain the lack of enthusiasm/turnout for the Trump endorsed candidates in 2022? It wasn't a majority of R voters, but they lost some.

Their total numbers are stagnant or falling. Dump is causing people to slowly peel away as they realize that Dump/Republican's lack of action can hurt them. Women losing medical coverage is a prime example. One by one, those voters turn away and they aren't replaced by someone in their early 20s. Young people hear the word "socialism" and they actually get excited. They have friends that are open about being LGBTQ+ and want to say "**** You!" to those that want to harm their friend's right to exist. Hell, COVID took are plenty more Dump voters that Dem voters.

That is what Handy and I are citing: There is currently an erosion of the R voting base occurring. They are approaching the point to where they are not viable on the National level. Sure, they can still control states as long as they remain Fire Red in color. But if there is any hint of purple, they are quickly losing control.
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Pretty simple.

They aren't Trump.

As I said, Trump has exactly the support he had in 2016. A lot of independents, and some Democrats, weren't really supporters of him(look at some of them on this board), but went ahead and voted for him. Whether that continues in 2024 is up for debate. But to write him off outright, to dismiss his chances, is a big mistake that we shouldn't make.
 
rufus said:
Pretty simple.

They aren't Trump.

As I said, Trump has exactly the support he had in 2016. A lot of independents, and some Democrats, weren't really supporters of him(look at some of them on this board), but went ahead and voted for him. Whether that continues in 2024 is up for debate. But to write him off outright, to dismiss his chances, is a big mistake that we shouldn't make.
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I think Trump is less dangerous than someone like DeSantis. For me, the reason is one I've spoken of before: Before Trump, my wife didn't give a flying f-ck about politics. Trump made her get up off her butt and vote Biden in 2020 because she was so disgusted with Trump. She doesn't know who DeSantis is, nor does she care. We all know DeSantis is just as, if not more, dangerous than Trump, but the average everyday American voter doesn't know that. Any Republican who wins the GOP nomination stands a better chance against Biden than Trump, and I think anyone in the GOP who isn't a diehard Trump supporter/worshipper knows that. Now, whether they mount a more effective resistance to Trump this time is another story.
 
rufus said:
Pretty simple.

They aren't Trump.

As I said, Trump has exactly the support he had in 2016. A lot of independents, and some Democrats, weren't really supporters of him(look at some of them on this board), but went ahead and voted for him. Whether that continues in 2024 is up for debate. But to write him off outright, to dismiss his chances, is a big mistake that we shouldn't make.
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And literally no one did that...but thanks for the advice that we have been saying anyways for 4 years.
 
psych said:
I think Trump is less dangerous than someone like DeSantis. For me, the reason is one I've spoken of before: Before Trump, my wife didn't give a flying f-ck about politics. Trump made her get up off her butt and vote Biden in 2020 because she was so disgusted with Trump. She doesn't know who DeSantis is, nor does she care. We all know DeSantis is just as, if not more, dangerous than Trump, but the average everyday American voter doesn't know that. Any Republican who wins the GOP nomination stands a better chance against Biden than Trump, and I think anyone in the GOP who isn't a diehard Trump supporter/worshipper knows that. Now, whether they mount a more effective resistance to Trump this time is another story.
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I will agree, but with caveats. DeSantis is definitely dangerous on a fascist level, but I don't think he will inspire a lot of GOPers to vote...and I would bet he at best splits the MAGAytes especially after a war with Trump. The strength you are citing is also his main weakness. He has no real national cache. What people do know about him though is very polarizing and certainly will not get him much independent support nationwide. This is why I said he overplayed his hand too quickly. His best shot in the general (assuming he gets there...more on that later) was to be a Trump alternative that could tout less craziness and a "more sensible" form of Republican Leadership. (yes yes we all know he isn't that) If the GOP believed in math, or reading, or even just common sense they would have looked at the last 2 elections and fled towards the Center. MAGAyates are losing all over the place, the Trump endorsement is an anchor. Instead they are ignoring what voters in all of the battleground states told them and went harder Right especially Chubby Ronny and Waders. That is going to be a problem later on. The average voter doesn't care about CRT or Drag Shows...they care abotu how you plan to help them. Having your big accomplishments be "shipping Migrants to Blue States illegally" and "Starting a war with Di$ney and the media" is not an agenda...it is an application for a job at Faux.

But the truth is, barring something bizarre DeSantis is going to be trounced by Trump. It is why I said his advisors should be telling him to wait. (his advisors should be fired for about 7 million reasons) Trump is going to walk away with it, not as easily as '16 but it will be pretty bad. By the time it is DeSantis vs. Trump it will be all over because everyone else will have endorsed Trump (Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and their ilk are Trumpers through and through) the old guard and the NeverTrumpers will back either Trump or the "sensible" candidate (The Larry Hogan Surrogate) and the rest will be split meaning he wins. The debates will be hilarious in a very sad way. DeSantis doesn't have the clout or charisma to beat Trump on a national stage...hell I am not even sure he can beat him in Flo(R)ida at this point.
 
Handyman said:
I will agree, but with caveats. DeSantis is definitely dangerous on a fascist level, but I don't think he will inspire a lot of GOPers to vote...and I would bet he at best splits the MAGAytes especially after a war with Trump. The strength you are citing is also his main weakness. He has no real national cache. What people do know about him though is very polarizing and certainly will not get him much independent support nationwide. This is why I said he overplayed his hand too quickly. His best shot in the general (assuming he gets there...more on that later) was to be a Trump alternative that could tout less craziness and a "more sensible" form of Republican Leadership.
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This. The DeSanti-stans know Trump is toxic and they see Governor High Heels as a guy with less baggage who will actually implement the things that Trump only promised to. However, his aggressively far-right policies and rhetoric may have played well to Florida Man ("Where Woke Goes to Die" has been an effective catchphrase for him with MAGAts), but not so much outside of Dixie except in rural Mich/Minn-issippi type counties.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
"CMP People" placed right over Camp Perry is *chef's kiss*
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I had to look it up. Is that the group Michael Moore was in as a kid?

I worked with a champion marksman at my old job and went shooting with him. His accuracy was like something out of a movie. He had a very large and strange collection of guns.

True story: he lives on a commune in Utah now and last I communicated with him, before COVID, he was avidly Q. I suspect he is an enviro-terrorist -- he really hates Monsanto. He hates banks -- for him, (((banks))) -- even more than I do. I think when he finally makes the news he will do more good than harm.
 
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FadeToBlack&Gold said:
This. The DeSanti-stans know Trump is toxic and they see Governor High Heels as a guy with less baggage who will actually implement the things that Trump only promised to. However, his aggressively far-right policies and rhetoric may have played well to Florida Man ("Where Woke Goes to Die" has been an effective catchphrase for him with MAGAts), but not so much outside of Dixie except in rural Mich/Minn-issippi type counties.
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That type of rhetoric and policy handed full control of the governments of both those states to Dems so...I am not sure it even works super well there. I know the New York Times and CNN won't want to hear this but, you can't understand every voter even in small counties by finding 3 of them in a diner in the middle of nowhere.
 
Swansong said:
I'm sure it would be preferable to get more water ... not all at once. But any port in a (literal) storm, eh?
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Somethings better than nothing, but not all in one winter would be nice. Also the snow melt in a month is going to cause some problems.
 
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