Re: The Power of SCOTUS V: The Final Frontier
Speaking of 6* of 8, how hard has it been, historically, to hold the WH after a 2-term (or greater) incumbency? I'd have guessed very hard. Not only does a 2-term incumbent roll up 8 years' worth of vulnerabilities, but anger trumps contentment and after 8 years on the outs the losers are more highly motivated.
Election (after at least a 2-term incumbency), Result for incumbent party
06, W
07, W
08, W
(note, while 9 and 10 were also won by the D-Rs, those were essentially primaries since the Federalists by this time were dead)
11, L (although the D-Rs split in this election, the incumbent lost)
13, W
14, L
19, L
21, W (though Lincoln technically didn't run as a R in 20, a re-election is by definition an incumbency win)
22, W
23, W
24, W (that's 6 straight terms -- the Civil War was a bitch)
25, L
30, W
31, W
32, L
36, W
37, L
39, W
40, W
41, W
42, L
44, L
46, L
48, L
51, W
52, L
54, L
56, L
So, 15-13 overall, but just 1-7 since the end of the FDR-Truman run and, perhaps not coincidentally, the rise of TV and truly national messaging. The really long runs:
7*: Democratic-Republicans 1800-1828 (Implosion of the Federalists; * only the first 5 really count)
6: Republican 1860-1884 (Democratic blame for the Civil War)
4: Republican 1896-1912 (Collapse of the Third Party System; Democratic blame for the 1893 Depression)
5: Democratic 1932-1952 (Collapse of the Fourth Party System; Republican blame for the Great Depression)
were in response to national trauma.