The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

[Huskiefan906]

I've got a prediction that the final standings will look like this:

Ferris State - 48pts
Minnesota State - 34pts
Bowling Green - 32pts
Alaska-Anchorage - 30pts
Northern Michigan - 28pts
Lake Superior - 28pts
Bemidji State - 28pts
Alaska - 25pts (wins the tiebreak on wins, 11-9)
Michigan Tech - 25pts
Alabama-Huntsville - 2pts

I want to buff it up a little bit, but this is based on using KRACH as a forward predictor — I know that's not the intent; don't make me beat you with my thermodynamics textbook — and using a little bit of sense about home/away, strength, etc. The really sad news for Tech fans is that they get as high as sixth but end up losing out as they've got more games played. When it's ready, I'll publish it, and I plan on updating the analysis with updated KRACH results week-over-week. I've done the heavy lifting now.

Don't feel too bad, Tech fans. You could be rooting for UAH this year.

GFM

No more invites to Winter Carnival if this comes true.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

You people are insane. UAH either needs to have some success in special teams (like a SHG) and play a game even goal-wise at 5x5 (which requires our goalies going .940% or higher) to pull out a game. The BG game is essentially that: a PPG (Marooney), a SHG (Salhany), shutting the Falcons down on the PK, and a good night for Guerriero (38-of-41). That's our formula. We've scored four goals once (@BG), three goals once (v St. Cloud), two goals four times (@Northeastern, v Ferris, @ Notre Dame, @ Wisconsin), one goal nine times, and none ten times. Your chances are very good at winning if you score three goals. UAH is routinely giving up 40SOG (14 of 24 games), and that means that one of our guys has to stand on his head to keep it close.

Now someone is going to accuse me of sandbagging their team with false hopes. Again, you people are insane. Your coaches and your player leadership can read a box score just as well as I can. Now, if you've got sawdust in your hands 35:00 into your Saturday night game in Huntsville because SOG are even, well, that's on you. I think that UAH can beat any team left on its schedule. I'm just fairly convinced that them beating any of them is unlikely. I will watch every game and root for them because that's what a fan does. But I've had to manage expectations this season so I wouldn't feel like I was going insane.

GFM

 

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I think that 4th place is achievable for UAA as well. I ran the numbers (informally and just in my head) for the rest of the season using using KRACH as a starting point as well. I didn't get to 30 points but instead 29. I didn't have BG at 48 but instead 45 points. Obviously, projecting is full of "wow-what-a-stupid-prediction-that-was" potential but (as i said earlier); I hope the team is tracking the standings. Knowing they need 13 (or 14) points out their next 24 possible will give them a solid (doable) short term goal. After this weekend by all standards the boys should only need 9 (or 10) points out of their last 10 games to grab a home-ice spot barring anyone currently below them going on some unexpected massive winning streak.

For UAA the season is becoming one in which they win as a team and lose as a team. It's a bit surprising how well they've done considering that that the bottom two lines have been a complete mish-mash combination of forwards and extra-defenseman. One of my favorite players on the squad is defenseman Chris Williams (who I think is grossly underrated) and he skated at center on the 4th line last weekend while defenseman Blake Leask (also underrated in my mind) skated on the 1st line on the wing. I know Thomas is maximizing the top-talent on the squad by giving them extra shifts on the 3rd and 4th lines so that stabilizes things a bit but those guys cant always be on the ice and there sure seems to have been some quality "filling-in" from the blueline up front.

Still though, 10 points against NMU on the road, at Lake St., BG at the sully, then @ league leading Ferris followed by a trip to the craphole on a river up north to face their hated rivals won't be an easy task.

 

[Suze]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I think that 4th place is achievable for UAA as well. I ran the numbers (informally and just in my head) for the rest of the season using using KRACH as a starting point as well. I didn't get to 30 points but instead 29. I didn't have BG at 48 but instead 45 points. Obviously, projecting is full of "wow-what-a-stupid-prediction-that-was" potential but (as i said earlier); I hope the team is tracking the standings. Knowing they need 13 (or 14) points out their next 24 possible will give them a solid (doable) short term goal. After this weekend by all standards the boys should only need 9 (or 10) points out of their last 10 games to grab a home-ice spot barring anyone currently below them going on some unexpected massive winning streak.

For UAA the season is becoming one in which they win as a team and lose as a team. It's a bit surprising how well they've done considering that that the bottom two lines have been a complete mish-mash combination of forwards and extra-defenseman. One of my favorite players on the squad is defenseman Chris Williams (who I think is grossly underrated) and he skated at center on the 4th line last weekend while defenseman Blake Leask (also underrated in my mind) skated on the 1st line on the wing. I know Thomas is maximizing the top-talent on the squad by giving them extra shifts on the 3rd and 4th lines so that stabilizes things a bit but those guys cant always be on the ice and there sure seems to have been some quality "filling-in" from the blueline up front.

Still though, 10 points against NMU on the road, at Lake St., BG at the sully, then @ league leading Ferris followed by a trip to the craphole on a river up north to face their hated rivals won't be an easy task.

We really like Willy as well, I think he will be a fan favorite. He is solid and he doesn't take any crap!

 

[manurespreader]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I think that's is very doable. Lake st has injuries, including one of the goalies who is very good, BG at home you could sweep, though given how you got outplayed by Mankato, maybe not, and the Ferris series will be tough to get points.
So that would be, 10-12 points being optimistic against Ferris and splitting with NMU.
Looking ahead BG has a pretty easy schedule with a lot of home games, and NMU has a number of games in hand over pretty much everyone. Bemidji has been playing much better, but has a tough schedule going forward.

Oh, and I am sick to death of the national media ignoring the WCHA like it was yesterday's half eaten hamburger.

 

[davyd83]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I think that's is very doable. Lake st has injuries, including one of the goalies who is very good, BG at home you could sweep, though given how you got outplayed by Mankato, maybe not, and the Ferris series will be tough to get points.
So that would be, 10-12 points being optimistic against Ferris and splitting with NMU.
Looking ahead BG has a pretty easy schedule with a lot of home games, and NMU has a number of games in hand over pretty much everyone. Bemidji has been playing much better, but has a tough schedule going forward.

Oh, and I am sick to death of the national media ignoring the WCHA like it was yesterday's half eaten hamburger.

And why would the national media pay much attention? Besides Ferris, there are no teams more than 3 games over .500

 

[Pink Pony]

And why would the national media pay much attention?0

A great day to be a WCHA fan.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

And why would the national media pay much attention? Besides Ferris, there are no teams more than 3 games over .500

By that assessment, why would they pay attention to NCHC? Besides SCSU, no one is more than 4 games over .500...

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

By that assessment, why would they pay attention to NCHC? Besides SCSU, no one is more than 4 games over .500...

For the same reason ESPN touches itself everytime they see a NY Jets logo. The mainstream media is filled with idiots.

 

[aparch]

And why would the national media pay much attention? Besides Ferris, there are no teams more than 3 games over .500

Why wouldn't Ferris be a good story? Oh right, this was the same Ferris that was largely ignored even with their National Championship appearence; BC got all the love.

 

[Jimjamesak]

I think that's is very doable. Lake st has injuries, including one of the goalies who is very good, BG at home you could sweep, though given how you got outplayed by Mankato, maybe not, and the Ferris series will be tough to get points.
So that would be, 10-12 points being optimistic against Ferris and splitting with NMU.
Looking ahead BG has a pretty easy schedule with a lot of home games, and NMU has a number of games in hand over pretty much everyone. Bemidji has been playing much better, but has a tough schedule going forward.

Oh, and I am sick to death of the national media ignoring the WCHA like it was yesterday's half eaten hamburger.

We got outplayed by Makato because they had traveled and gotten into Anchorage less then 24 hours before game time. Don't take too much stock into it.

 

[davyd83]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Why wouldn't Ferris be a good story? Oh right, this was the same Ferris that was largely ignored even with their National Championship appearence; BC got all the love.

Largely ignored with the National Championship appearance? I recall ESPN drooling all over them. There were articles not only on the college hockey websites, but on many national sites and papers as well. I've seen articles on them this season as well, even outside the weekly WCHA portions of USCHO and CHN. The bottom line is that we are the small schools from the small markets. No one is jumping up and down to write about us unless something extraordinary happens. 5-13-3 vs the Big 10, 0-10-0 vs Hockey East and 4-11-5 vs the NCHC don't scream, "Write about me," unless they are writing about how lousy our record is against those conferences. Six of the eight NCHC teams have better attendance than the top draw in the WCHA. Only two WCHA teams draw over 3000 per game. Numbers like that don't generate a lot of clicks or articles or air time outside their own markets.

 

[Squarebanks]

We got outplayed by Makato because they had traveled and gotten into Anchorage less then 24 hours before game time. Don't take too much stock into it.

You got outplayed and swept them? How does that happen?

 

[manurespreader]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Largely ignored with the National Championship appearance? I recall ESPN drooling all over them. There were articles not only on the college hockey websites, but on many national sites and papers as well. I've seen articles on them this season as well, even outside the weekly WCHA portions of USCHO and CHN. The bottom line is that we are the small schools from the small markets. No one is jumping up and down to write about us unless something extraordinary happens. 5-13-3 vs the Big 10, 0-10-0 vs Hockey East and 4-11-5 vs the NCHC don't scream, "Write about me," unless they are writing about how lousy our record is against those conferences. Six of the eight NCHC teams have better attendance than the top draw in the WCHA. Only two WCHA teams draw over 3000 per game. Numbers like that don't generate a lot of clicks or articles or air time outside their own markets.

ok, well said. I'm curious how much press Huntsville gets and how many fans actually show up. I would be surprised if Tech isn't averaging over 3000 at home and I would assume Bemidji is also.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

ok, well said. I'm curious how much press Huntsville gets and how many fans actually show up. I would be surprised if Tech isn't averaging over 3000 at home and I would assume Bemidji is also.

MTU is averaging 2851 through 9 home games.

 

[Squarebanks]

The bottom line is that we are the small schools from the small markets. No one is jumping up and down to write about us unless something extraordinary happens. 5-13-3 vs the Big 10, 0-10-0 vs Hockey East and 4-11-5 vs the NCHC don't scream, "Write about me," unless they are writing about how lousy our record is against those conferences. Six of the eight NCHC teams have better attendance than the top draw in the WCHA. Only two WCHA teams draw over 3000 per game. Numbers like that don't generate a lot of clicks or articles or air time outside their own markets.

This.

Our biggest local media markets are Anchorage and Huntsville. I'd wager that most mainstream media hasn't heard of Huntsville and thinks that Anchorage is part of Canada.

Here are a few national Nielsen rankings for comparison's sake:

Huntsville - #119
Anchorage - #145
Mankato - #198
Fairbanks - #202

Bottom line is there aren't enough eyeballs in WCHA markets to make a meaningful impact on a national scale. The NCHC may be stinking it up, but look at some of their markets: Denver, Omaha, Cincinnati, Colorado Springs. All bigger media markets than the biggest WCHA market. It's an unfortunate reality for the WCHA now.

 

[blackswampboy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Bottom line is there aren't enough eyeballs in WCHA markets to make a meaningful impact on a national scale. The NCHC may be stinking it up, but look at some of their markets: Denver, Omaha, Cincinnati, Colorado Springs. All bigger media markets than the biggest WCHA market. It's an unfortunate reality for the WCHA now.

your point is well taken...but BG is part of the Toledo media market. Toledo, #76.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

ok, well said. I'm curious how much press Huntsville gets and how many fans actually show up. I would be surprised if Tech isn't averaging over 3000 at home and I would assume Bemidji is also.

We're consistently clocking around 1,000 fans a night. Our attendance will rise now that we have no more football competition for the rest of the year. We won't get any crossover traffic with the Huntsville Havoc (SPHL) playing around us (Thu/Sun) some weekends, and we certainly won't get any help this weekend (they play on Sunday).

We used to pull 2,000 to 2,500 in the 2000-2006 timeframe of playing D-I hockey at or above .500, and that takes into account the drain that football (HS on Friday, Roll Tide and War Eagle on Saturday) puts on us. I started an accounting / analysis of our attendance v. quality of team and UA/AU football interference in the offseason, but I never finished it, and I'm not sure where that file is right now. If I can find it, I'll get it back up and UAHStatman and I can crank on it during the muggy months during which we close our eyes and wish for hockey's return.

GFM

 

[hattrick16]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

This.

Our biggest local media markets are Anchorage and Huntsville. I'd wager that most mainstream media hasn't heard of Huntsville and thinks that Anchorage is part of Canada.

Here are a few national Nielsen rankings for comparison's sake:

Huntsville - #119
Anchorage - #145
Mankato - #198
Fairbanks - #202

Grand Rapids is #39.

 

[Squarebanks]

Grand Rapids is #39.

Good point, although I was looking at the actual city of the school. Does Ferris State get much coverage in Grand Rapids?