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The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

davyd83 said:
Explain this: Tech plays home on an NHL sheet. Their away record on an NHL sheet 1-5-1 .214 (1-6-2 counting GLI). On an Olympic 2-4-1 .357. NMU plays on an Olympic and is 1-3-0 on the road on Olympic sheets (.250) and 3-5-1 (.389) on NHL sheets away from home.
Click to expand...
The two Olympic sheet wins were on the same weekend against a pretty bad (as far as WCHA standings go) UA_ a week after playing on an olympic sheet against UAA and staying in Alaska all week.
Take out that 1 weekend and weekend and MTU just sucks on the road period so far...
 
Shirtless Guy said:
The two Olympic sheet wins were on the same weekend against a pretty bad (as far as WCHA standings go) UA_ a week after playing on an olympic sheet against UAA and staying in Alaska all week.
Take out that 1 weekend and weekend and MTU just sucks on the road period so far...
Click to expand...

Teams that are 2 and 3 points behind Tech with equal games played are "pretty bad?" And playing in their owns rinks?
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Here's something else that I've been thinking about:

I think that we'd all agree that we don't want the WCHA to be a 1-bid league this year, or any other year, really. If you look at PairWise, the only team that's making the tournament is Ferris: Mankato just barely falls out, and Lake and BG are further down the line. Now it's entirely possible — and I'd argue healthy for the league — that one or two of those three teams will go on a streak. The Mavs are certainly poised to do that right now, given the run that they're on. Do we as fans of the league sorta root for these teams? I mean, as a fan of UAH, a team that's not going to make the league playoffs, I mean, I will be rooting for these schools (especially BG, so our guys can say that they beat a tournament team).

Even murkier, do we want to root for Ferris to lose in Final Five?

Just some things I've been thinking to keep us from the endless talk of conference travel ...

GFM
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
Here's something else that I've been thinking about:

I think that we'd all agree that we don't want the WCHA to be a 1-bid league this year, or any other year, really. If you look at PairWise, the only team that's making the tournament is Ferris: Mankato just barely falls out, and Lake and BG are further down the line. Now it's entirely possible — and I'd argue healthy for the league — that one or two of those three teams will go on a streak. The Mavs are certainly poised to do that right now, given the run that they're on. Do we as fans of the league sorta root for these teams? I mean, as a fan of UAH, a team that's not going to make the league playoffs, I mean, I will be rooting for these schools (especially BG, so our guys can say that they beat a tournament team).

Even murkier, do we want to root for Ferris to lose in Final Five?

Just some things I've been thinking to keep us from the endless talk of conference travel ...

GFM
Click to expand...

As long as FSU is playing MTU or losing in the WCHA playoffs won't hurt their seeding much, I'll be rooting for them to lose if it means getting more WCHA teams in the tournament.
I also have to think that unless you hate a team as a rival, you should be rooting for FSU, Mankato, LSSU, BGSU to do well and find a way into the top 12-14 of the PWR. Although as a fan of MTU, I kinda want some of those teams to not go on a run so it's easier for MTU to host a playoff series.
 
gfmorris said:
Here's something else that I've been thinking about:

I think that we'd all agree that we don't want the WCHA to be a 1-bid league this year, or any other year, really. If you look at PairWise, the only team that's making the tournament is Ferris: Mankato just barely falls out, and Lake and BG are further down the line. Now it's entirely possible — and I'd argue healthy for the league — that one or two of those three teams will go on a streak. The Mavs are certainly poised to do that right now, given the run that they're on. Do we as fans of the league sorta root for these teams? I mean, as a fan of UAH, a team that's not going to make the league playoffs, I mean, I will be rooting for these schools (especially BG, so our guys can say that they beat a tournament team).

Even murkier, do we want to root for Ferris to lose in Final Five?

Just some things I've been thinking to keep us from the endless talk of conference travel ...

GFM
Click to expand...
Being that these teams have garnered 7 bids over the last 11 years, an average of 1 per year is a great improvement. A second or third, a bonus.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Just a quick FYI, Carpenter is finally returning to the line up for BG tonight! Yes, we're excited to finally see him play this season!
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I'll make a prediction that 2 of the top 4 teams now in the league, will be out of the top 4 by playoff time.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

manurespreader said:
I'll make a prediction that 2 of the top 4 teams now in the league, will be out of the top 4 by playoff time.
Click to expand...

I've got a prediction that the final standings will look like this:

Ferris State - 48pts
Minnesota State - 34pts
Bowling Green - 32pts
Alaska-Anchorage - 30pts
Northern Michigan - 28pts
Lake Superior - 28pts
Bemidji State - 28pts
Alaska - 25pts (wins the tiebreak on wins, 11-9)
Michigan Tech - 25pts
Alabama-Huntsville - 2pts

I want to buff it up a little bit, but this is based on using KRACH as a forward predictor — I know that's not the intent; don't make me beat you with my thermodynamics textbook — and using a little bit of sense about home/away, strength, etc. The really sad news for Tech fans is that they get as high as sixth but end up losing out as they've got more games played. When it's ready, I'll publish it, and I plan on updating the analysis with updated KRACH results week-over-week. I've done the heavy lifting now.

Don't feel too bad, Tech fans. You could be rooting for UAH this year.

GFM
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
I've got a prediction that the final standings will look like this:

Ferris State - 48pts
Minnesota State - 34pts
Bowling Green - 32pts
Alaska-Anchorage - 30pts
Northern Michigan - 28pts
Lake Superior - 28pts
Bemidji State - 28pts
Alaska - 25pts (wins the tiebreak on wins, 11-9)
Michigan Tech - 25pts
Alabama-Huntsville - 2pts

I want to buff it up a little bit, but this is based on using KRACH as a forward predictor — I know that's not the intent; don't make me beat you with my thermodynamics textbook — and using a little bit of sense about home/away, strength, etc. The really sad news for Tech fans is that they get as high as sixth but end up losing out as they've got more games played. When it's ready, I'll publish it, and I plan on updating the analysis with updated KRACH results week-over-week. I've done the heavy lifting now.

Don't feel too bad, Tech fans. You could be rooting for UAH this year.

GFM
Click to expand...
If Michigan Tech doesn't find a way to improve its PP and scoring offense, I won't be surprised if they finish 9th. If they do, I still think they could get home ice...
 
Shirtless Guy said:
If Michigan Tech doesn't find a way to improve its PP and scoring offense, I won't be surprised if they finish 9th. If they do, I still think they could get home ice...
Click to expand...
Yeah, I may be a bit biased but I don't see UAF getting out of ninth.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I wrote up how I did it — http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/01/14/krach-schedule-1/ — and there's a spreadsheet you can look at, too: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsF07ikrWXw3dHM0a004OVJHTkdqcnIyMTN1V2RjUGc&usp=sharing

I've spotted an error, and I'm not going to go back and fix it. It gives Lake one more point than they should have and BG one less, but those changes don't end up affecting anything in the rankings other than confirming the Lakers as #6 instead of #5.

GFM
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Looks to me like gfmorris is trying to inflate the Seawolves ego in a lame attempt to take the Chargers too lightly in the hope of slipping past us this weekend.
Aint gonna happen.
Our guys are on a roll and not going to take their collective foot off the gas.
It's a new day and a great day to be a Seawolf!
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Seawolf Fan said:
Looks to me like gfmorris is trying to inflate the Seawolves ego in a lame attempt to take the Chargers too lightly in the hope of slipping past us this weekend.
Aint gonna happen.
Our guys are on a roll and not going to take their collective foot off the gas.
It's a new day and a great day to be a Seawolf!
Click to expand...

I'm just having fun with math. I am an industrial engineering graduate student, after all.

GFM
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Seawolf Fan said:
Looks to me like gfmorris is trying to inflate the Seawolves ego in a lame attempt to take the Chargers too lightly in the hope of slipping past us this weekend.
Aint gonna happen.
Our guys are on a roll and not going to take their collective foot off the gas.
It's a new day and a great day to be a Seawolf!
Click to expand...

Well, it certainly isn't bulletin board material. ;)
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

UAHStatman said:
Well, it certainly isn't bulletin board material. ;)
Click to expand...
As a Charger fan you should know what it's like to be "down" forever and suddenly somebody thinks you will finish in the top half of your league.
Or tries to lead you to think that and it's a "doormat" this weekend.
After you've been the "doormat" for years.
 
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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Wayfarnorth said:
So which two teams does your crystal ball say replaces them?
Click to expand...
Oh don't get me wrong, I'm no guru, i was just putting this out for discussion.
However, it does look like AA might make it in, and bound to be someone else besides.
 
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