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The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

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Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

From Spalding’s Official Ice Hockey Guide for 1929-30

<I><B>National Rankings of Collegiate Teams, 1928-29</B>
By Theodore Mills Tonnele (Princeton)

As the result of a number of years’ study of the ranking of college athletic teams, the writer has concluded that a pragmatic formula may be devised for any sport, which upon application to any group of teams, will result in a surprisingly sound ranking of them.

A formula worked out for, and applied to, the collegiate hockey teams throughout the country, gives the following ranking this past season:

<B>A TEAMS</B>
Ranking Order – Team – Index No.
1. Eveleth Junior College (19.00)
2. Yale (16.60)
3. Minnesota (16.08)
4. Clarkson (14.00)
5. Dartmouth (11.44)
6. Harvard (10.38)
7. Marquette (9.55)
8. Princeton (9.50)
9. Wisconsin (6.33)
10. Michigan (4.36)

The index number of each team gives the ranking position of the team as to all other teams. It does not indicate the degree of superiority of any team over any other team. Thus, an index number of 6 shows that the team is stronger than any having a smaller index number, but it does not in any way indicate that a the team is twice as strong as one with an index number of 3. Moreover, in view of the vagaries of competitive sport, the index number manifestly does not show that a team is bound to defeat one having a lower index number, or even that it has defeated all teams of lower index numbers which it met during the course of the past season.

The index number is the result of applying a general formula for measuring the strength of a team, to the record of the particular team during the season.

The determination of the formula involves three steps – a broad classification of the teams, a measurement of the relative performance of each team against others teams, and a proper weighting of the differences in performance.

A study of the records of the forty-seven teams to be ranked, shows that they fall naturally into three well-defined groups, one of which may be divided into two sub-groups. These groups may be described as (A), the extremely good teams; (B), the ordinarily good teams, including (B1), the better of the B teams, and (B2), the merely fairly good teams; and (C), all the other teams.

A distinctive feature of each class for the past season, is that no C team defeated an A or B team, and no B team defeated an A team.

Having made this general classification, it becomes necessary, in order to rank the teams within each class, to measure the relative performance of the teams in the class as against the same opponents or against different opponents of equal caliber. A scale of five divisions, representing the varying degrees of victory or loss, proves itself sufficiently accurate in measurement to differentiate in the performance of teams in games within their own class, and avoids undue refinement so that the divisions are sufficiently distinct for the division within which the performance of a team falls to immediately apparent. These five divisions of performance are (1) decisively winning, (2) barely winning, (3) tieing, (4) barely losing, and (5) decisively losing (abbreviated “dw”, “bw”, “t”, “bl”, “dl”, respectively). It appears that in hockey, a difference of two goals constitutes a decisive victory for the winner, and correspondingly, a decisive loss for the loser.

In dealing with the performance of teams in games with teams of a different class, no debit is given for losing to a team of a higher class, nor any credit for defeating a team of a lower class, except in certain cases of a B team decisively defeating a C team. The same credit is given for defeating a team of a higher class, as a team in that class would receive, and the same debit, for losing to a team of lower class, as a team in the lower class would receive.

It remains only to give the proper relative weight to these varying degrees of performance. This is done by giving a number of points credit or debit, properly graduated to the divisions of the measuring scale. The following are found empirically to be substantially correct figures for the purpose, and their determination results in the completed formula
Code:
dw.			+19	dw.			+4	dw.			+ 3½ 
bw.			+18	bw.			+3	bw.			+ 2½ 
t.	an A team	+14	t.	a B1 team	+2	t.	a B2 team	+ 1½ 
bl.			+ 5	bl.			-2½	bl.			-3
dl.			  0	dl.			-3½	dl.			-4
A credit of 1 is given to a B team for decisively winning from a C team if the ranking of the B team is helped by doing so.

In view of the variation in the play of many club teams during a season, and in almost from one game to another, and in the difficulty of classifying club teams, games with club teams are ignored. On the other hand, practically all Canadian college teams are Class A teams, and games with them are rated accordingly.

A team’s performance in each of its games with other college teams is rated in accordance with the foregoing table; the points are totaled and the sum is divided by number of games so rated. This yields a quotient which is the index number of the team’s comparative ranking. For illustration, Williams’ record, works out as follows:

dw. Amherst, B2 team +3½
dw. Amherst, B2 team +3½
bl. Amherst, B2 team -3
dw. West Point, C team – (no advantage to include)
bw. Amherst, B2 team +2½
bw. Amherst, B2 team 2 ½
bw. Mass. Agri., B2 team, +2½
bl. Cornell, B1 team -2½
dw. Pennsylvania, C team – (no advantage to include)
dl. Princeton, A team – (not included)
bl. Middlebury, B1 team -2½
bl. Princeton, A team +5
dw. Union, B2 team +3½
Net total +15
Divided by number of games 10
Index number of rating +1.5</I>

Here is Eveleth Junior College’s record taken from the Guide:
dw. Hibbing Junior Coll., C team – (not included)
dw. Marquette Univ., A team +19
dw. Marquette Univ. A team, +19
dw. Duluth Central H.S. – (not included)
dw. Hibbing Junior Coll., C team – (not included)
t. Virginia City Team, club – (not included)
dw. Duluth Junior Coll., C team – (not included)
dw. Fort Frances Leafs (Ontario), club – (not included)
dw. Michigan Tech, B team – (not included)
dw. Duluth Central H.S. – (not included)
dw. Hibbing Junior Coll., C team – (not included)
dw. Michigan Tech, B team – (not included)
dw. Univ. of Wisconsin, A team +19
bw. St. Mary’s College (Minn), B team – (not included)
dw. Virginia City Team, club – (not included)
dw. Michigan Tech, B team – (not included)
dw. Duluth Junior Coll., C team – (not included)
bw. Eveleth H.S. – (not included)
dw. Fort Frances Leafs (Ontario), club – (not included)
Net total +57
Divided by number of games 3
Index number of rating +19

The second place team in this ranking, Yale, played 10 A teams, 3 dw, 5 bw, 1 t and 1 bl. Who do you think was actually the better team in 1928-29?

Sean

Sean,

Thanks for posting the above info. Can you imagine the battles over which teams would be A, B, and C today? A huge amount of work had to be done to get those rankings.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

From Spalding’s Official Ice Hockey Rules for 1940-41:

<I><B>A.A.U. National Championship</B>

The national hockey championships of the Amateur Athletic Union were held under the auspices of the Adirondack Association of the A.A.U. and the North Elba Park District of Lake Placid at the Olympic Arena, Lake Placid, N.Y., March 1, 2 and 3, 1940. Edward W. Stanley, Clinton, N.Y., was in charge of the games.

One entry is allowed in the tournament from each Association of the A.A.U., except for the host association, which is allowed two entries. Players must be registered in the A.A.U. before February 1st to be eligible to participate.

Six teams entered. In the first round the Clinton (N.Y.) Hockey Club defeated the Short Hills (N.J.) Hockey Club, 5-0, and the Brock-Hall club of New Haven, Conn., defeated the Massena Stars of Massena, N.Y., 5-4. University of Minnesota and the Amesbury (Mass.) Maple Leafs drew byes in the preliminary round.

In the semi-finals Brock-Hall defeated Clinton, 9-6, and Minnesota defeated Amesbury, 9-4. Minnesota defeated Brock-Hall in the finals, 9-1, thereby becoming A.A.U. national champion.</I>

That's all I have.

Sean

Very cool. I knew that the Amesbury that they were talking about was in Mass., but I had never heard that they were the Maple Leafs.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

Thanks for posting the above info. Can you imagine the battles over which teams would be A, B, and C today? A huge amount of work had to be done to get those rankings.
Unfortunately the rankings were incomplete as at least one team, Boston University, was not ranked. This shows how hard it was to get complete information at that time, let alone today. I mention BU because that is an obvious team for me to notice missing from the rankings, but there may be others.

As for placing teams in the three groups, I have no idea how it was done, but if I want to add BU they have to fall into the B1 subgroup as they only played one A team and lost decisively which would give them an index of 0. However, they played and decisively defeated 9 B teams, but as 2 were B2 teams, they would have received an index of 3.88.

Another problem is Boston College, which is ranked as a B1 team, yet played and lost to 7 A teams (4 US and three Canadian), twice barely losing. So what makes BC a B1 team and not an A team? Rating them as both an A and a B1 team it is apparent that BC, like BU, receives a higher rating as a lower level team. However, BC is also problematical, as the 2 decisive losses to BU are not counted. Ranking BU badly hurts BC whether they are an A team or a B1 team. Furthermore, their schedule is not included in the guide and I'm not able to make their index equal 4.00, as give in the guide, using the results from the BC media guide. Below are the ratings for BC as an A and B1 team, with and without BU:
Code:
BC Results                       as ranked       as ranked w/BU  as A team       as A team w/BU
dl. Dartmouth, A team            –               –               0               0
dl. Loyola (Montreal), A team    –               –               0               0
dl. Dartmouth, A team            –               –               0               0
dw. Pennsylvania, C team         –               –               –               –
bl. Princeton, A team            +5              +5              +5              +5
dl. Boston University, B1 team   –               -3.5            –               -3.5
dw. Holy Cross, B2 team          +3.5            +3.5            –               –
dl. Boston University, B1 team   –               -3.5            –               -3.5
dw. Pennsylvania, C team         –               –               –               –
dl. Yale, A team                 –               –               0               0
dl. Loyola (Montreal), A team    –               –               0               0
bl. Sherbrooke (Quebec), A team  +5              +5              +5              +5
dw. Holy Cross, B2 team          +3.5            +3.5            –               –

Net total                        +17             +10             +10             +3
Divided by number of games       4               6               7               9
Index number of rating           +4.25           +1.67           +1.43           +0.33
So this rating system is incomplete to say the least.

Sean
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

Sean,

do you have rankings for other years, etc?
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

And the Top 3...

Michigan
2009-2010 Final Ranking: 1
2009-2010 Final Points: 475.5292
2010-2011 Points Earned: 15.8631
2010-2011 Final Points: 491.3923
Percent Change: +3.34%

2010-2011 Final Ranking: 1

North Dakota
2009-2010 Final Ranking: 2
2009-2010 Final Points: 414.1636
2010-2011 Points Earned: 21.997
2010-2011 Final Points: 436.1606
Percent Change: +5.31%

2010-2011 Final Ranking: 2

Minnesota
2009-2010 Final Ranking: 3
2009-2010 Final Points: 397.684
2010-2011 Points Earned: 5.6731
2010-2011 Final Points: 403.3571
Percent Change: +1.43%

2010-2011 Final Ranking: 3
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

And here is where things stand after the 2010-2011 season...

programsat.jpg


I am working on an "update" of sorts to show where things stood after the 1999-2000 season per a request. I will post that as soon as it is done. Other than that, we wait until next season to see what changes lie ahead. Thanks for all the support with this, and I hope it spurs a lot of discussion, especially historically.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

The Official Ice Hockey Guides have Tonnele's rankings from the 1928-29 season through the 1932-33 season. He added a three season composite ranking starting with the 1930-31 season through the 1932-33 season.

Sean
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

And here is where things stand after the 2010-2011 season...

programsat.jpg


I am working on an "update" of sorts to show where things stood after the 1999-2000 season per a request. I will post that as soon as it is done. Other than that, we wait until next season to see what changes lie ahead. Thanks for all the support with this, and I hope it spurs a lot of discussion, especially historically.

If Dean Blais sticks around at UNO, I don't think they'll be stuck at #45 very long.

Great piece of work on this thread, FS23.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

If Dean Blais sticks around at UNO, I don't think they'll be stuck at #45 very long.

Great piece of work on this thread, FS23.

Thanks.

I wouldn't think they would sit at #45 for too long if Blais sticks around. They moved up three places this past season. If they have a similar type year next year, they would be prime for a push into the top 40. If they were to make the Frozen Four, they would probably jump into the low 30s. If they were to win it all, I would guess they would be somewhere in the top half, probably mid 20s.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

I was curious about what conference titles you credited teams with. Was credit given for Great West titles, or Tri-State and Ivy League titles before the formation of the ECAC? Also, I know teams in the CCHA won NAIA titles, so at what point did you start to consider the CCHA a division 1 conference and start crediting their conference titles?
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

I was curious about what conference titles you credited teams with. Was credit given for Great West titles, or Tri-State and Ivy League titles before the formation of the ECAC? Also, I know teams in the CCHA won NAIA titles, so at what point did you start to consider the CCHA a division 1 conference and start crediting their conference titles?
Or the New England Intercollegiate Hockey League, Intercollegiate Ice Hockey Association of America, Big Ten/Western Conference (I wonder if the revived one will include records from the first one) or International Intercollegiate Hockey League?

Sean
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

I was curious about what conference titles you credited teams with. Was credit given for Great West titles, or Tri-State and Ivy League titles before the formation of the ECAC? Also, I know teams in the CCHA won NAIA titles, so at what point did you start to consider the CCHA a division 1 conference and start crediting their conference titles?

All of the "defunct" conferences were counted (although, I have not ranked defunct programs), so yes to the Great West (along with CHA and MAAC). As for the Tri-State League, anything prior to the formation of the ECAC was counted. As for the Ivy League (or Quadrangular League, or Pentagonal League (w/Army)), it was counted (along with the Big Ten from pre-WCHA days) up until the ECAC was formed. As for the CCHA, I counted everything from its inception, as it has always been a D-1 Conference. I hope that answers those questions for you.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

Or the New England Intercollegiate Hockey League, Intercollegiate Ice Hockey Association of America, Big Ten/Western Conference (I wonder if the revived one will include records from the first one) or International Intercollegiate Hockey League?

Sean

NEIHL yes, Big Ten yes, the others...no. I've honestly never heard of the International Intercollegiate Hockey League. :)

EDIT: After doing a little bit of research, it looks as though the International Intercollegiate Hockey League (IIHL from now on) was basically the Ivies and some Canadian schools (I could be wrong, I've done minimal research). I don't know the years that the IIHL played, but it looks it at least partially overlapped with the Ivy League. Either way, the IIHL was not counted, nor will it count. Perhaps this could be revisited if the day ever comes when a Canadian School joins the NCAA and D-1 hockey.
 
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Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

It does answer my question, thanks. It brought up an additional question though...were teams able to compete in both the NCAA and NAIA in those days? Or, more specifically, why was CCHA member Lake State winning NAIA titles if they were in a NCAA D1 conference?
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

NEIHL yes, Big Ten yes, the others...no. I've honestly never heard of the International Intercollegiate Hockey League. :)

EDIT: After doing a little bit of research, it looks as though the International Intercollegiate Hockey League (IIHL from now on) was basically the Ivies and some Canadian schools (I could be wrong, I've done minimal research). I don't know the years that the IIHL played, but it looks it at least partially overlapped with the Ivy League. Either way, the IIHL was not counted, nor will it count. Perhaps this could be revisited if the day ever comes when a Canadian School joins the NCAA and D-1 hockey.
Thanks for the answer. I'm interested where you found your information for the NEIHL and other leagues. The basis of most of the information I have is from the Official Ice Hockey Guides and The Intercollegiate Hockey Newsletter. I have supplimented that with newspaper articles, college yearbooks and media guides.

The IIHAA is mentioned in one of the early Official Ice Hockey Guides I looked at recently. I need to look into it some more to see how lomg it may have lasted and if other teams were members.

As you mention, the IIHL had both Ivies and Canadian colleges so I doubted it would be counted. However, I thought I would throw it out there as it was also in the Guides I happened to look at recently. I didn't bother to mention the leagues with the Pacific coast programs as they are all either defunct or club teams now. :)

Sean
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

Thanks for the answer. I'm interested where you found your information for the NEIHL and other leagues. The basis of most of the information I have is from the Official Ice Hockey Guides and The Intercollegiate Hockey Newsletter. I have supplimented that with newspaper articles, college yearbooks and media guides.

The IIHAA is mentioned in one of the early Official Ice Hockey Guides I looked at recently. I need to look into it some more to see how lomg it may have lasted and if other teams were members.

As you mention, the IIHL had both Ivies and Canadian colleges so I doubted it would be counted. However, I thought I would throw it out there as it was also in the Guides I happened to look at recently. I didn't bother to mention the leagues with the Pacific coast programs as they are all either defunct or club teams now. :)

Sean

I used team's Media Guides. Most teams include their conference and conference finish in their year-by-year results.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

It does answer my question, thanks. It brought up an additional question though...were teams able to compete in both the NCAA and NAIA in those days? Or, more specifically, why was CCHA member Lake State winning NAIA titles if they were in a NCAA D1 conference?

I don't really have an answer for you there. Somebody that has more depth in understanding of that particular era (or of that particular school) would probably be able answer that for you.
 
Re: The Greatest Programs of All-Time: #1 - #58

I just thought I would let everyone know that I am planning on doing a midseason update of the Greatest Programs.

I'll post a link in here to CHW when I have finished with the midseason update.
 
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